“Beggar thy neighbor” : Vietnamese Dong devaluation affects Thailand

That’s the beauty with cheating : you always find a bigger cheater than yourself.

And this is exactly what is happening in Asia (and around the world).

The crisis is worsening (see Dubai’s default), tensions and imbalances are increasing, and all the clowns try the same thing : The Beggar thy neighbor policy, in order to save their own exports, at the expenses of somebody else.

That’s the principle of the Beggar thy neighbor policy.

This is why it’s  absurd to pretend that everybody can do it, at the same time. The Beggar thy neighbor policy implies that someone loses.

Someone has to lose.

Vietnam has devalued its currency (by 5,4 %, read here) and increased interest rates. Why ? “To contain inflation“.

The first part (devaluation) is of course totally surreal when you pretend to fight inflation. Sure Vietnam can survive without importing L’Oreal beauty creams for instance… but It can’t avoid to import oil. And already, gasoline prices have increased in the country. And like Thailand (and China), economic growth is based on cheap fuels.

So the devaluation increases the costs, costs are passed onto the consummers : prices rise. Inflation.

The vietnamese government, like the thai government, is living in Lala Land. They just want to boost their exports.

Effect on Thailand ? Overnight, thai goods, like rice, are 5,4 % more expensive compared to vietnamese rice.

Now, let’s see what Korn, the alleged Finances Minister, has to say.

“Vietnam’s decision to devalue the dong will not affect exports or other currencies in the region,” Korn told reporters. “Thailand has no plan to hike its interest rate any time soon.”

The minister said the premium quality of Thailand’s rice insulated it from competition with Vietnam. (Nation)

Insulated from competition ? Korn is an expert in bozoness. Not affecting other currencies in the region ? Ah ah ah, another medal.

[Chart of USD Index]

And in the background… the USD dollar is sinking. And will continue to sink. And Korn will continue to make inane comments, and the economic situation will continue to worsen.

Life is sweet. Let’s have another drink.

[You want to understand the reasons of Dubai's debacle ? Look here... Asthonishing pictures... Everything was written, on the walls and at the top of hundreds of cranes, and the clowns, as usual, pretend today to be "surprised" ! ]

The government imposes special Security Law… for 2 weeks

[do you remember april 2009 ?]

It started on november 20.

ISA may be invoked

That’s sweet. “may”, “might”.

Then, we had other details 4 days after:

Speaking to reporters after a meeting with security agencies, Suthep said he will ask the Cabinet to approve the enforcement of the ISA for Dusit district, Rajdamnoen Road and Bang Khun Prom area during the period. (Nation)

Let’s stop here for a moment. What is ISA ? The Internal Security Act. It’s a politically correct and modern version (style Abhisit Change Yes We Can’t) of martial law. Yes ladies and gentlemen : martial law.

The Internal Security Act (ISA) allows troops to impose curfews, operate checkpoints, restrict movements of protesters and act fast if rallies by the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) turn violent. (Reuters).

So what would you say about the proposal of Suthep to impose martial law… in some streets of Bangkok, here but not there ?

The word you are looking for is : clown.

Of course.

But let’s continue, with eventually, the real version of this grotesque new thai  drama.

The cabinet on Tuesday morning approved the use of the Internal Security Act (ISA) throughout Bangkok from Nov 28 to Dec 14 to cope with the red-shirts’ plan for prolonged anti-government protests.

Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, who is in charge of security affairs, said on Monday that the ISA would be limited to only in Dusit and nearby Sommanas and Bang Khun Phrom sub-districts.

However, the cabinet decided to invoke it across all of Bangkok since the red-shirts had declared they would rally and split into groups that would protest separately at many different locations in the capital next Monday.

“The cabinet made this decision because the protesters may go separately to many different locations. The wider coverage of the law will enable security units to effectively perform their duty throughout Bangkok. (Bangkok Post)

Suthep is a liar and a clown.

A liar because, the decision to use ISA on the whole city of Bangkok , not only parts, was taken long time ago. And a  clown because the propaganda he uses is so cheap…

Now. Other issue : why 15 days ? I mean why not… 360 days ? Yeah. That would be so convenient for all those friends of “democracy” and “rule of law” (you remember the fetish words of our dashing Prime Minister, Abhisit).

No more opposition, no more trouble, welcome Burma, welcome China, welcome North Korea. Yeah that would be so cool, right Mister Abhisit ?

And as usual, they use the monarchy as a grotesque toy, a tool, to justify their own political agenda.

Sure we have the birthday of the King on december the 5th… So what ? Why is it necessary to keep ISA until december 14 ?

But let’s go back to our beloved Abhisit. What does he think ?

The government needs to enforce the Internal Security Act (ISA) across Bangkok between Nov 28 and Dec 15 to deal with the red-shirt protesters if they split up and rally at different locations, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said on Tuesday. [...]

“There are reports that people, including foreign workers, have been gathered from different regions to join the demonstration,” Mr Abhisit said. (Bangkok Post)

Ouh we are scared… legions of mean foreigners (cambodian perhaps ?) ready to crush Thailand…

You see. Since last december, I tell you that Abhisit is nothing but a vulgar thai politician, hidding inside a smiling puppet.

Abhisit has no shame. No shame to use this dirty trick : the fear of the foreigners…

It’s pathetic. Abhisit is pathetic.

Times On Line gives the finger to the thai government

The “Times Online” has unofficially refused to comply with a request by the Thai government to hand over the controversial taped interview with former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to Thailand, which contained parts that are deemed lese majeste, according to the Minister to the PM’s Office Satit Wonghnongtaey. (PRD)

And even deeper into the Rabbit Hole :

The government will not stop requesting the tape of an interview by ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra from the Times Online although the latter has unofficially rejected the request, according to Minister to Prime Minister’s Office Satit Wonghnongtoey.

Mr Satit stated that the news agency had already denied Thailand’s request, claiming that it was the right and freedom of the press. However, the government had assigned officials concerned to submit another letter to the Times Online demanding an official statement to clarify the matter, he said.

The minister affirmed that the government would not stop asking for Mr Thaksin’s interview tape since the issue has hurt the feelings of Thai people. He added that if the Times Online was sincere and did not have any deals with the ex-prime minister, the news agency should give cooperation to the Thai government in the investigation process. (PRD)

Paranoid. And hysterical. Totally. Those are the proper words to qualify such behaviour.

To read this famous interview and my comments, click here.

So to summarize : an english media has given the finger to those thai maniacs who think that the world is besieging Thailand, that there is a universal conspiracy to “hurt the feelings of Thai people“, that there is a global threat against “thai national security“, orchestrated by Thaksin and legions of devil foreign journalists who don’t understand Thailand (of course).

Oh dear… we do understand… too well. That’s their problem.

But the worst is : those clowns might indeed believe their own words and fantasies. That’s the scary part.

Because, beyond the obvious political manipulation (they push everything at their hand against Thaksin), there is a nefarious way of thinking gaining some momentum right now in Thailand.

It’s called Thoughtcrime. They arrest a doctor who wrote something on the web about the King’s health. They ask foreign medias to “comply” with their requests… etc. They accuse foreign new editor of lese-majeste. Shall we see a pattern there ?

Something is seriously wrong in Thailand…

And meanwhile, we still wait for some bright comments coming from Abhisit, our young, dashing and Oxford-educated Prime Minister. You know the guy who loves to speak about “democracy” and “rule of law” on CNN (and here)…

What does he think about this stuff ? Afterall, this minister is close to him.

So do we have to conclude that Abhisit agrees ? That Abhisit doesn’t give a shit about the freedom of the press ? That Abhisit has forgotten everything they (allegedly) taught him in Oxford ?

“Rumors mongers” hysteria : a doctor arrested

After 2 brokers, and the owner of  a snooker bar (!), a fourth individual has been arrested in the “rumors mongers and stock market” case about the King’s health.

She’s a doctor in Bangkok, and has no link whatsoever with the others. Talk about a conspiracy.

Police said they have evidence confirming that she had posted the information on a politically-oriented website and caused the plunge of stock market during October 13-15.

She admitted posting the information on the website .

Dr Thassaporn was charged with violating Section 14 of the Computer Offences Act for posting inaccurate information which threatens national security. (TNA)

Sorry to quote myself :

What’s next ? Are they going to arrest a maid, a taxi driver, a farmer, a hooker ? “Rumors mongers” and “national security”… it’s just amazing !

Deep into the Rabbit Hole, we are.

Striking and dark irony of the calendar : the King is in hospital since exactly 2 months (saturday september  19)… And since Loy Kratong, we have no news whatsoever.

So to summarize : you’re a doctor, you might have an opinion, afterall it’s your job, but if it’s related to the King and if you post it on the Web, you become a threat to national security.

This is the Thailand of 2009.

This is Thailand of Abhisit, the dashing “democrat” Prime Minister who could cancel the insane Computer Crime Act (read here) designed by the Junta, by the generals in 2007, after a Coup d’etat.

But no. Not a word. Not a move.

First, not to displease his masters (Abhisit was not elected PM, he was pushed by some puppet masters behind the scene) and second because obviously Abhisit feels at ease with this law (along with the lese-majeste law) : it serves his political interests, it’s a huge leverage against any opponent.

Thai Airways president : “management was not really allowed to manage”

Let’s say grace… At last, a thai official dares to speak the truth… and even more striking… the president of Thai Airways dares to speak the truth about the national carrier !

Fasten your seatbelt. And look for your life jacket.

The newly appointed head of Thai Airways was in London on a global road show to gather investor support.

“The management had not really been allowed to manage the company,” Mr Piyasvasti said in an unusually frank interview.

“The company had been interfered heavily by the board, by the politicians. That had substantially weakened the management of the company, and our response to the crisis.”

He has been the airline’s president for just four weeks. Mr Piyasvasti said it had taken months of negotiations to secure a strong enough mandate for his new job.

On Monday, the state-owned carrier reported a net loss of $121m (£71.8m) for the July-to-September quarter.

The results were worse than analysts had expected. They forecast another loss in the fourth quarter, traditionally high season for tourism. [...]

Mr Piyasvasti seems an unusual pick to run the national carrier. As a fund manager, he refused to own shares in the airline.

“Thai Airways was a company which did not provide transparent information to investors,” he said.

“Thai Airways management were not able to provide clear directions or policy to investors. Most of the big funds, whether in Thailand or outside Thailand, stayed away from Thai Airways stocks.”
[...]
He said one of the most serious problems was nepotism and favouritism in promotions and in the awarding of contracts.

“When you promote people who have connections but no ability, initially it’s okay, but eventually it weakens the company, Mr Piyasvasti said.

“It reduces the quality of the work. That is what has happened to Thai Airways.” (BBC)

Indeed. A perfect diagnosis.

Let’s put it that way : this guy is a saint. Respect.

But on the other hand… we have to be honest : his chance of success are slim as the space between seats on Thai Airways aircrafts.

That’s the fatal beauty of the whole story : like an airplane losing its engines… you see the ground coming fast. No exit way.

You might ask me : why do I write so often about Thai Airways ? Because of course the company makes the headlines… but also because it’s a perfect symbol of Thailand, it’s a perfect microcosm of what is wrong in this country.

Unfortunately.

Anyway. Best wishes to Piyasvasti. And again : respect.

Mission accomplished : the BOI has saved Thailand from foreign investors

The Board of Investment has agreed to cut down foreigners’ right to hold stakes in sensitive businesses from 100 per cent to 49 per cent in a bid to minimise the impact from the liberalisation of investment in Asean.

“The agricultural activities are listed in Annex 1 of the BOI Act, which the board agreed to revise in terms of size, investment conditions and privileges based on the country’s interest, since Thai operators are not competitive enough to go against other countries,” she said.

The act also does not allow foreigners to hold more than 49 per cent in the forestry and livestock, including aquatic animal, businesses.

“Our limits will not impact on foreigners’ investment because such business activities are normally protected in most agriculture-based countries. We are the first government agency to revise our promotion criteria to protect local people, while other agencies are considering the revision too,” she said. (Nation)

I remind you that the Board of Investment’s goal… is to promote foreign investments in Thailand.

More seriously : we have here another set of winners. Well done guys.

And as usual, we shall give the mic to Abhisit. What does our dashing Prime Minister think about this decision ? Does he agree ? Does he disagree ? I mean he’s the alleged PM… so ? He should have -at least- an opinion.

Since Abhisit was made PM last december, the guy is a master of double speak, double standards. He’s totally schizophrenic.

He makes very nice speeches abroad to push foreign investments, with very nice and sweet words (rule of law, democracy, blabla, you know the full set).  He tries to sell Thailand’s image… And locally, like a fart, we can read such decision taken by the BOI. So ?

Another perfectly normal day in Thailand…

Abhisit did it. What ? The picture with Obama (and the ugly shirt)

Three ! And counting.

The first time, sorry “The First Time”, it was in London at the G20. Last april. Then we had the G20 Summit in Pittsburgh. September.

Abhisit, Prime Minister (unelected but very happy and very self contented) had his picture with Obama (Change Yes We Can’t, trademark) at the APEC summit, this week end.

Oh yeah. And with an ugly shirt asian style. Double yeah. And we shall notice the hand, sorry “The Hand”, on his shoulder… Abhisit probably fainted, overwhelmed by emotions.

Anyway. Why should we mock this man ? One word : schizophrenia.

(And we should say exactly the same about… Barack Obama himself… Afterall, he invented the Yes We Can’t concept… The absolute political schizophrenia it’s… him. Latest example : “We want to cut the US deficit“… when we all know that Obama has exploded the US deficit, and continues to increase it, every day).

Have you followed the Thailand versus Cambodia Drama ? With Abhisit, and the whole thai state apparatus, totally obsessed by every footstep (or air mile) taken by Thaksin ? And the spies ? And the diplomatic fight ? And the TV, the newspapers ? And all this crap ? Amazing.

It’s a telenovelas. An opera bouffe. A comedy. An orgy of ridicule.

Abhisit is ridding the nationalist card, because obviously it’s his last, and meanwhile the man is making empty speeches on the international scene, shaking the hand of Obama. Scene, that’s the proper word.

Left … right … and between those 2 sides, the feeling that there is an amazing emptyness.

To summarize the action of Abhisit (watch out, almost 1 year…) :

-domestic : nothing. Excepted political games, saber rattling and smiles.

-international : speeches with big words (sustainable development, democracy, rule of law, growth etc.) and shaking hands. And smiles.

Anyway. It’s not the first anniversary yet… Let’s wait december. And then we could unleash our critics.

Abhisit… only one more month to Change Yes We Can(‘t).

Hurry up.

Chart, oil net imports : recovery, but at lower levels

Yes. This is a Green Shoot. And as Green Shoot Amateur and hunter, I know when I see one.

Here is my beloved indicator : oil.

Oil consumption seen through the prism of imports… more precisely net imports (imports minus exports), because Thailand produces and exports oil too.

Why oil (as the first source of energy) is an important indicator ? Because, without making bad jokes, it’s the motor of the economy. We hate, we love it, whatever, this is a fact and we have to deal with it.

The EPPO (Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy) has updated the figures for september (table 2.1-5, and 2.1-4).

Let’s start with imports, volume and amount.

But as I said, let’s go deeper with net imports (we have to remove exports).

There is a clear hike in september : 616 000 barrels per day in september. But we can see that we are clearly under the levels of 2007 and (mid) 2008. During those years, we hit several months 750 000 barrels per day.

Has Thailand increased its energy efficiency between 2007 and 2009 ? Of course not. Consumption went down because of the crisis (plural… we had many in Thailand : political crisis, then inflation crisis, then the Big Global Crisis etc.)

Same datas, but with the % of change year on year (we compare for instance september 2009 with september 2008 etc.)

It’s even clearer… We went rock bottom last winter, during the Great Panic… and since then we start to go up. Slowly but surely (eventhough I insist, we are at lower levels than before).

With the base effect starting in november… the % y-o-y are going to increase a lot.

So shall we rejoyce ? I doubt it. Because oil (energy) is the biggest weakness of Asia.

Remember Thailand in july 2008… Not so long ago… We were on the verge of catastrophy with oil prices at all time highs… Yeah I know people have short memory…

This collective terror will come back. Later… We had it before in the West (70’s)… It will be a first for Asia…

And one thing is sure : they are not prepared for it.

Chart, foreign currency reserves and US Treasuries : “Gimme more”

Britney Spears ? Nope. The Bank Of Thailand.

Time passes and the BOT pursues with a striking constance -like all the other asian central banks- their suicidal mission : buying US Dollars, mountains of it, and worse  US Treasuries, AKA US debts in US Dollars, in order to save their pathetic exports figures by keeping a weak exchange rate for their currency: it’s the Beggar thy neighbour policy.

US debt in US dollars ? Talk about a double whammy.

And meanwhile… the smart guys (asian too) are buying gold.

Talk about major schizophrenia.

Let’s update our charts.

“Gimme more of less”. What to say else ? More USD and more US Treasuries (US debts).

Yes, the proper word is : “correlation”. This chart is screaming… The Great Correlation.

The key word is : “stability” (apparent, virtual). That’s the fantasy of the thai central bank… But it doesn’t work this way. Because if indeed it’s possible to fool all the people all the time, at one point you face laws of physics…

We can see a lot of efforts (buying a lot of USD) in order to keep the exchange rate USD-THB stable.

We are deep inside the Rabbit’s Hole, Wonderland. It’s the lala economy.

Sustainable ? We will see.

(Source Bank Of Thailand, and US Treasury).

PS : Sorry to repeat myself, over and over… But if you’re looking for some light inside the tunnel… Point your browser to Mish Blog and Calculated Risk Blog. Those people have understood it all… since at least 3 years… Yes, the “crisis”, the “recession”, the “depression” whatever you wish to call it is nothing but new… It was documented, predicted, announced, analysed, dissected… But of course, you didn’t get the chance to read it on Bloomberg or the Wall Street Journal.

Don’t be a clown.

Break your chains.

Weird : “Demons” statues at airport bring bad luck to “shopkeepers”

Fed up with Thaksin ? Enough of Abhisit ? And all the other clowns ? Have a drink and some “weird-bigotery” appetizer.

Twelve “demon statues” at Suvarnabhumi airport believed to have brought bad luck to shopkeepers will be moved at a cost of one million baht.

The guardian spirit statues will be shifted from the inner zone of the passenger terminal to the check-in area to “improve morale” of people working at the airport.

Suvarnabhumi director Niran Thiranartsin said the sculptures were modelled on 12 statues at the Grand Palace. [...]

Mr Niran admitted the decision to relocate the figures from the inner part of the passenger terminal had partly resulted from complaints from staff working in the inner zone which has many shops.

The shopkeepers are blaming the “demon statues” for the problems they have faced at the airport, which was seized late last year by demonstrators and supporters of the People’s Alliance for Democracy. (Bangkok Post)

It’s totally surreal ! I love it.

To move those statues, why not. But what is striking is the justification… AOT and King Power employees (?) have “problems”, so they blame the statues, so the management agrees to move them.

Why not blaming incompetence, corruption, the recession ? Of course not. The statues are a much better choice, target.

Just another perfectly normal day in Thailand…

Lese-Majeste : here we go again… complaint against Thaksin and a foreign news editor

What is funny is the extreme predictability of the “useful idiots”.

Thaksin has landed in Cambodia. Thaksin has given a bold interview (read here), in which he speaks about the sucession, the monarchy, the crown prince etc..

Just enough to ignite the rocket fuel under the arse of some politicians and generals. 1, 2, 3 Lift off !

The Siam Samakkhi Group on Tuesday filed two complaints alleging lese majeste with Dusit police against former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and two other people.

The complaints were lodged on behalf of the group by senators Somchai Sawaengkarn and Warin Thiamjarat, Gen Somchet Boonthanom, former chief of the secretariat of the Council for National Security, and Lt-Gen Nanthadet Meksawat, former deputy chief of the national intelligence coordination centre.

The first complaint was against Thaksin and Richard Lloyd Parry, editor of the Asia edition of The Times, which published the Thaksin interview in which he referred to the monarchy. (Bangkok Post)

Ah ah ah, the editor of the Asia edition of The Times, a british citizen based in Tokyo  ? Why not the Queen of England ? Thailand has not yet reached the bottom of ridicule… We can count on those people to complete the job.

Those people are lunatics, totally delusional.

The worse is : they probably believe -for some of them- they’re righteous.

Thaksin is playing against them… And what they can only do is to charge him with lese-majeste… On both side, the political manipulation is obvious… So by doing so, they’re undermining the monarchy that they pretend to defend.

The thai monarchy is becoming a toy, into the hands of corrupted politicians and people looking for power… It’s a shame.