Abhisit : long public holidays… solution to tourism crisis and flu crisis

It’s the week-end. And like every week-end, we get a load of non-sense coming from Abhisit… thanks to his television address.

Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said Sunday he is confident that the current five-day public holiday will help boost tourism and help lower the number of influenza A (H1N1) patients in the country.

Speaking during his weekly television address, Mr. Abhisit said the nearly week-long long holiday which began Saturday to mark Buddhist religious days — Asarahabucha Day and the Buddhist Lent Day which fall this Tuesday and Wednesday respectively — could boost tourism although entertainment places have been ordered not to sell alcohol drinks on both days.

The long holidays could also help lower the widespread of the deadly virus because a number of patients were recently found to be students and patrons of entertainment venues, he said.

As bars and nightclubs will be temporarily closed during the holidays, local administrative organisation personnel have been asked to help clean these places in an attempt to reduce the wider spreading of the disease, Mr. Abhisit added. (TNA)

Abhisit is obviously tired, or he’s running out of imagination. Because he said exactly the same absurdity about tourism 2 weeks ago (read here) !

Albeit there is a novelty : public holiday as a mean to fight… the spread of the flu A !

It’s huge.

Apparently, he missed a few classes during his education in Oxford…

People moving around is surely the best way to spread a contagious disease. People in large cities like Bangkok are going to visit their family upcountry… A very nice booster for the virus.

But no, in Abhisit’s Lala world, where honey and smiles are flowing and neurons are an endangered species, holiday will solve the economic crisis, will solve the problems in the South… What else ? Cure cancer ?

One thing is sure : the Prime Minister himself needs holidays… Very long holidays…

Another blow for Abhisit : Foreign Minister soon to be charged for the airport’s blockade

It has been long… The police took 7 months to investigate the blockade of Suvarnabhumi and Don Muang airports… Indeed, it was a difficult case, with very few witnesses.

Anyway, as we say : better late than never. Let’s just note that the Red supporters were charged a few days after the violences in april…

Abhisit was fool enough to name last december his good friend Kasit as Foreign Minister… an astonishing mark of contempt.

Kasit was one of the PAD supporters… He gaves speeches in Suvarnabhumi… and he said that the occupation “was a lot of fun”.

Now, let’s see how long it will take Abhisit to… let his friend down.

People’s Alliance for Democracy leaders and other key supporters have been charged with aviation law breaches for closing the city’s two airports, Don Mueang and Suvarnabhumi, during their drive to oust the government last year.

Among those charged with closing Suvarnabhumi airport is Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya.

According to the Manager Online website, 16 people, including PAD leaders Sondhi Limthongkul, Chamlong Srimuang, Somsak Kosaisuk, Somkiat Pongpaibul and Pibhop Dhongchai have been charged with criminal offences in relation to the airport blockades, the most serious carrying the death penalty. (Bangkok Post)

UPDATE

Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya will not stop working although police has obtained an arrest warrant against him, vice foreign minister Panit Wikitset said Sunday.

Panit said Kasit had informed Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva that he would continue working.

Panit said Kasit would return from a foreign trip in one or two days and would report himself to police soon. (Nation)

Classic defiance and contempt coming from thai politicians. Afterall everything is possible in Thailand. A Foreign Minister, formally charged, representing Thailand abroad, would be perfectly normal…

Chart, Producer Price Index : -10 % in june

At last a good negative stat !

The Producer Price Index is down 10,54 % in june, compared to june 2008.

I know… I didn’t speak about CPI and PPI… for a long time.

Regarding the CPI, I said why (here)… And for the PPI, well the trend was too obvious (explained here).

But I feel a little update is necessary.

I wrote in february about PPI :

Due to the base effect, we are going to get in the coming months extremely negative values (in % of difference, year on year)…

This is the -10,54 % we have had in june.

Remember, summer 2008…. the Peak Exports… the Peak CPI… the Peak Olympics…the Peak everything… before the big bubble burst… Oil prices were burning… and were infecting a whole range of products due to higher costs.

Barrel was at 150 USD… And today 70… So of course, PPI is going down, year on year.

The item “Petroleum Products” (8 % within the index) is crashing by 44 %. “Food products, beverages, tobacco” (15,9 % of the index) is down 0,8 %.

Only fools look at those figures with fear : lower prices are good for everybody.

What the fools do not understand is that our modern economy is by essence deflationary… it’s called productivity : we do more with less, therefore “prices” (per unit) should go down.

Only the fools are calling for “inflation” (of prices)… Just to save the current order… Just to save their positions and the banks…

Deflation is good. Deflation favors savings and work.

Inflation is for the messy politicians, the debts lovers, the addicted to bubbles and cheap money.

(Source Bureau of Trade and Economics Indices)

Chart, export in may : per zones

Data for may have been published. Time to update our charts.

Source Bank Of Thailand (table EC_XT_002).

First, I remind you that exports crashed 26 ,6% in may, compared to may 2008… in USD. But, thanks to the magic of exchange rate, the fall is “only” -17 % in THB (-16 % in april).

Why I have 2 series ? Because the first amount published by the governemnt (around the 20th of each month) is in USD. And then, 10 days after, the Bank Of Thailand publishes all the datas.

Personally, I prefer to speak about exports in THB. Why ? Because this is actually the real money that goes into businesses pockets… It gives a better view of the situation on the ground.

Now the chart per country of destination (or zones).

And now the X chart, the % of change compared to “Peak Exports” (july 2008). It’s getting better, albeit Japan is still off by 30 % and Asean by 20%.

Labour union… wants Finance Ministry to pay electricity bills, presto, quickly, leo leo, chop chop

About 20 members of the Metropolitan Electricity Authority (MEA) labour union went to the Finance Ministry on Wednesday to demand that the ministry play its outstanding electricity bill of 7.53 million baht, which fell due on May 31.

Head of the MEA labour union Pien Yongnu said his members would cut off the electricity supply to the ministry if it fails to pay the bill within seven days.

He said he was acting in the interests of the MEA.

The union would also send representatives to other government agencies, all of which have failed to pay their bills. The total amount outstanding was 1.02 billion baht.

Mr Pien said that the demand had nothing to do with the government’s foot dragging on paying a 2,000-baht a month cost of living allowance to MEA staff. (Bangkok Post)

There are several important information in this article…

-1- the government is broke. Cash flow problems... Can’t pay the bills.

-2- it’s proven now : Thailand has also inane labour unions… for that matter, France, UK or USA don’t have the monopoly anymore. Bravo.

-3- thai labour unions think they own… the companies. So much that they are not afraid to act like the managers of those companies.

-4- thai labour unions consider perfectly normal to use blackmail… even against the state !

-5- thai labour unions have a great sense of humor… No the threat to cut the power has nothing to do with the scandal of the monthly living allowance….

Just another perfectly normal day in Thailand.

Transport Minister and the buses : “I’ll never scrap the project or I will lose face”

Transport Minister Sohpon Zarum insisted on Thursday morning that he would never drop his ministry’s plan to lease 4,000 NGV buses for Bangkok and would continue to press ahead with it.

Mr Sohpon was responding to a report that the leader of the Friends of Newin group, Newin Chidchob, was invited to have lunch with Prime Minister Abhisit at Baan Pitsanulok yesterday, and the premier asked Mr Newin to put the controversial project on hold.

Mr Newin was reported to have agreed to the request. His group is the major faction within the Bhumjaithai Party.

“I will never let the project to be scrapped, or I will lose face,” the Bhumjaithai transport minister said.

”It is unnecessary to talk with Mr Newin about this matter as I am responsible for this project.” (Bangkok Post)

Sohpon is the Clown Of The Day.

Reminder : this project was designed to be a cash cow. The Newin’s gang pushed for it like crazy… But the scandal is too obvious, even by thai standards.

Public opinion starts to wake up, to understand that our dashing Prime Minister Abhisit was… elected thanks to Newin’s MP… And that Abhisit gave to Newin the Transport Ministry (as a pay out).

Hum… like a stain. It’s messy. So it’s likely that the project is going to be scrapped.

And Sohpon will lose face.

And that will be another great satisfaction.

Thailand dives into ridicule : a fourth lese-majeste complaint against BBC’s journalist !

And a new one ! The fourth !

After the fanatic cop (3 complaints against J.Head), helped by the british useful idiot, here is the fanatic thai translator ! And to change : a woman.

All against Jonathan Head, the BBC’s journalist in Bangkok, and included the whole board of the FCCT. All fighting for the thai monarchy, seriously endangered by vicious attacks coming from the New Little Satan : the BBC.

G.Orwell is your auteur de chevet ? You feel close to Goebbels ? You like mind control ? And overall, you cherish surrealism and non-sense ?

You should therefore celebrate Thailand and its famous lese-majeste law. A law that allows every man, woman, child, plant and probably every living organisms (including germs and virus) to fill a complaint for lese-majeste against anybody.

The point is : the thai authorities can’t (and don’t want to) amend this stupid law. And a thai police officer would never discard such complaint… Fear. Fear.

And that’s the deadly trap : the lese-majeste law is sustainable only if it’s not used.

The lese-majeste is a bomb blowing off in the thai authorities hands. Over and over again. The more inane people are filling charges, the more the bomb is blowing off. They are trapped.

ASTV Manager reports that today (June 30) at 9:30pm, a Miss Luksana Kornsilpa aged 57 and a translator and adviser in the private sector filed a lese majeste complaint with Lt. Col. Decha of the Lumpini Police Station to proceed with a case against Jonathan Head of the BBC and the 13 committee members of the FCCT for selling the DVD of Jakrapob’s presentation at the FCCT on August 29, 2007.

She states that she filed the complaint as a Thai who loves the monarchy and she says that the FCCT arranging for Jakrapob to speak and the selling of the DVD falls within the category of wanting to bring down the monarchy and destroy national security. (Bangkok Pundit)

Let’s see how our dashing Prime Minister, Abhisit, is going to handle the situation… Let’s see what kind of cheap rethoric he’ll be able to produce to give an opinion. Or an explanation.

UPDATE

The board, includes three British nationals including the BBC’s Bangkok correspondent Jonathan Head, three American nationals, including two working for Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal, an Australian national and a Thai news reader for Channel 3, Karuna Buakamsri. [...]

A perfect move to attract several very large western media’s attention ! Well done miss Luksana

Social critic and lese majeste case defendant Sulak Sivaraksa, reacting to the news, told The Nation yesterday that “the problem of [abusing] lese majeste law is now utterly messy“.

“The fact that leading world intellectuals like Noam Chomsky and others have petitioned to [PM] Abhisit [Vejjajiva to reform the law] is a testimony to it. If we let it goes on like this it will get even messier. It’s time for the government to do something.”

A source within the FCCT, speaking on condition of anonymity, said he was “surprised” at the latest allegation, which came after two years of the speech being made, adding that “it places Thailand in a very poor light”.

Poor light ? A serious understatement. And of course it took 2 years to miss Laksana to make her move… She must be a rather slow translator…

But the best, truely fanatic style, is kept for the end :

In the comments’ section on ASTV Manager’s website, most posters expressed support for Laksana and praised her for the move.

One said: “Put them in jail for 99 years.”

Another asked the site to post a picture of Jonathan Head so the person could attack him if he or she ran into him. (Nation)

Welcome to Thailand.

Chart, credit : the party is over, growth is decelerating

(Source Bank Of Thailand, table FI_CB_015_S3).

Time to update the charts about total credit and type of debtors, at commercial banks.

The total amount (outstanding) of credit was 7 576 billions THB in april, a + 8 % compared to april 2008 (but far lower than +18 % y-o-y we had in january).

My bet : in a few months, the trend will turn negative. The recession virus is infecting, slowly but surely, the thai credit system.

(Credit = Overdraft + Loans + Bills)

Now with amounts :

The “plateau” is visible… Despite the hysterical calls from the government for the banks to lend more, to pump up more cash into the system… it’s obvious : banks won’t take the risks.

This basic, fundamental rule, is totally forgotten : during recession it makes no sense to :

-borrow more money (in order to invest, to increase production capacities when precisely demand is falling)
-and to lend more money (because risks are increasing)

… unless interest rates are very high (to pay for the risks)…

The clowns (all over the world) think that they can make businesses and individuals borrowing more money, and force banks to lend more during a recession… and at the same time keeping interest rates super low.

Another depressing opinion poll : “okay with a corrupted government”

I wrote in january :

The most depressing “opinion poll” ever : children want… things from Abhisit

It was indeed depressing. But I’m not sure anymore It was “the most”…

A new one is a serious competitor for the golden medal.

A latest survey reveals that many Thai people would accept a crooked government if it can make the country prosper and raise their standard of living.

The Abac Poll Research Centre conducted a survey on people’s well-being, involving 1,228 households in 17 provinces nationwide.

84.5 per cent viewed that corruption in businesses would not be unusual and 51.2 per cent said they would tolerate a corrupted government if it can improve the country and their well-being.

73.9 per cent agreed that living self-sufficiently can help ease the economic crisis. (Bangkok Post)

I give no credit to Abac… At all… But what strikes me is that they didn’t censor such “poll” !

And I love the part about the “self sufficiency” policy. It’s obvious that this joke was added after by some editor or crook to please theirs masters… I mean it’s hilarious.

It like to ask : “as a crook, a corrupted citizen who supports with a burning enthusiasm a corrupted government, as long as it can benefit yourself, do you approve the self-sufficiency philosophy promoted by our beloved King ?”

There is one mystery though… Why they didn’t write : “99,9 percent agreed” ? Or even “120 %” ?

By-elections : another defeat for Abhisit, another slap in establishment’s face

The opposition Puea Thai party is the likely winner of the by-election in Si Sa Ket province, according to the Election Commission’s unofficial result on Sunday evening.

EC member Songsak Chantharukkha said more than 60 per cent of the ballots in Constituency 1 of Si Sa Ket had been counted.

He said Puea Thai MP Surachart Charnpradit had at least 40,000 more votes than Chart Thai Pattana MP Sakulthip Angkasakulkiat. (Bangkok Post)

Another (large) victory for Thaksin’s party with by-elections. And another defeat for the “Frankenstein Coalition“, led by the Democrat Party and supported by Newin… ex-friend of Thaksin.

Yes, over and over again, we shall repeat ad nauseam that Abhisit, in order to be elected PM by the House last december, had to sign a devil pact with someone who was a close ally of the so called Arch Devil : Taksin himself !

And Abhisit is still pretending to be proud, to be a “democracy” lover… It’s laughable. Anyway.

That’s the problem with those damned elections : people do not vote like the so called “democracy lovers” (military, Abhisit, bureaucrats, convervators etc.) want them to vote ! How terribly unfortunate…

It happened in 2001, 2005, in 2006, and in 2008… everytime… they voted for Thaksin… And then there have been a coup, and the dissolution of TRT and PPP to “balance” the situation… To “fix” it.

The political stalemate is still vivid.

Despite all the government’s efforts to promote “normality” (an appearance of normality, like a huge Potemkin Village), the thai society is deeply divided.

Abhisit has solved nothing (he’s unable and unwilling to , being just a “cardboard” Prime Minister, controled by the establishement).

The 122 billions USD question : should Thailand use its foreign currency reserves ?

Since a few weeks, we hear calls for the BOT to use its foreign currency reserves, in order to boost the domestic economy. People don’t understand why the government should borrow billions of USD… when the BOT has a total of 122 billions in “reserves” (+ 6 in foward positions).

This discussion is not new actually. It started with the Samak government, last year.

First, if you don’t know what are the Bank Of Thailand reserves, read the official definition and my article.

(Here is an update of the chart, source BOT)

Let’s start with the official opinion of the BOT : it’s an absolute no-no. And this is not new. Here are some interesting quotes from Tarisa (the BOT governor), published last week.

Recently, Dr Narongchai Arkasanee, a well-known economist, and other academics, called on the central bank to use US$200 million (Bt6.82 billion) to $300 million of its international reserves of $120 billion to help stimulate the sagging economy as the government is cash-strapped.

Tarisa vigorously defended the central bank’s international reserves management, saying that in economic theory it is not an appropriate policy to use international reserves to prop up the economy.

“We have already talked it out with the prime minister and the finance minister that using international reserves to stimulate the economy is not a good option.

Apart from the US dollar, there are other currencies in the reserves. If we sell the dollar from the reserves, the value of the baht will jump, which would complicate the problems. And if the Bank of Thailand were to push out the baht by converting the US dollar in its own account, this would also amount to printing money,” Tarisa said.

“No country in the world is spending money from its international reserves directly. If we were to use the reserves to buy up some oil reserves, then this matter can be put to rest because it would not affect the domestic economy.” (Nation)

Not an appropriate policy ? That’s a very interesting wording. But she’s right : very few countries are tapping into their reserves…

So why it wouldn’t be appropriate ? Let’s explore a few possible reasons.

Exchange rate
For a country like Thailand, with a growth driven mainly by exports, the issue of the exchange rate USD-THB (the other currencies are totally irrelevant as I showed in this article) is the core issue.

At 34 THB for 1 USD, exporters, businesses are already complaining. They all want a weak THB, to (artificially) boost their income (it’s the “beggar thy neighbor” policy, read my article here)

Selling USD, and converting them into THB, would lower the value of USD relative to THB (offer and demand). And then a higher THB would make like difficult for thai exporters.

Inflation
Inflation could be another concern. All this cash, would be converted in THB, and then would flow the domestic economy. If liquidities are already at high levels, then it could produce an inflation of prices.

The honey pot syndrome
Tarisa is probably shy. But I see a third factor : thai politicians.

Who can trust thai politicians ? Nobody of course. And Tarisa knows that very well… She’s a member of the state apparatus. To give to the politicians the keys of the coffer would be in a way suicidal. This mountain of money could have very negative effect on their sanity… And their own bank accounts

It would be like giving the keys of the fridge to a pack of hungry wolfes…

So maybe the BOT wants to keep an adamant position against this idea, to prevent any breach. To accept to give even a few hundred of millions of USD could create a dangerous situation.

Psychology
As Tarisa says, tapping into foreign currency reserves is not a conventional policy. Central bankers are naturally reluctant to such an idea, because it doesn’t fit with their text books.

Especially in Thailand, where weight of “traditions” and lack of creativity are a heavy burden. However, we should note that the FED with Bernanke was not afraid to take “unconventional” decisions (very unconventional…).

Overall, those are the 4 reasons that could explain the BOT’s refusal.

But I think Tarisa is not telling us everything.

I would like to add a fifth reason, a fifth factor : the fear factor.

The fear factor, the conspiracy of the idiots or the MAD policy
There is a very fragile equilibrium right now in the world, about the USD. We all know that the US is doomed, but nobody who could have an influence over the USD want to take any action that could accelerate the move.

Yes, I’m speaking about central banks… who continue to buy (like there is no tomorrow) US Treasuries (my article here)… therefore USD.

If one central bank starts to getting out of the USD… even on a small scale, it could have huge consequences… and put the equilibrium in serious danger.

I’m not speaking about a conspiracy (albeit…) … but rather a “converging and common interest” between most of the central banks around the world… like a non written agreement if you prefer…

During the Cold War, there was the MAD concept : Mutually Assured Destruction… It’s exactly the same now with the USD…

So what to think ?
As for my own opinion… Should Thailand use its foreign currency reserves ?

I would definitely answer yes. At 122 billions USD and counting, the reserves are just too high (regarding conventional theory, and Tarisa should start to worry about the way she will justify an ever growing reserves…).

A fraction of this money could definitely be used to boost an investment program. A real one.

Thailand needs heavy infrastructures. And those wouldn’t be luxury (like to build a new stadium… interest = zero as far as economy is concerned)… but could really fuel future growth.

And the sector we are looking at is obvious : transportations.

But… of course once you have set up a principle, then politics catch you back.

It would be utterly unimaginable to give a large amount of money to the current thai government… I mean can you imagine a guy like Newin, whose gang controls the Transport Ministry, and such money ? It would be obscene.

That’s one of the main burden of the country : the dirty “politicians” (included bureaucrats and military).