GDP 2008 : the target of +4,5 % is maintained

“Projections on Thai economic growth in 2008 is still maintained at 4,5-6 per cent due to planned government investment in mega-projects which is expected to stimulate investment by the private sector and the disbursement of government spending for fiscal 2008 beginning October 1 this year, said Mrs. Tarisa.” (TNA)

The governor of Bank Of Thailand is not afraid. Or at least, she doesn’t show her fear…

The target for economic growth this year (2007) is +4 to 4,5 %.

You will notice that the BOT governor doesn’t use the “everything will be fine after the elections” mantra. Instead, she’s toying with the last life saving jacket that remains on the shelves : government spendings and the famous “mega projects”.

However, the BOT should listen what the current government is saying about thoses “mega projects” and their recurring financing problems… Anyway.

Even though the whole budget of 160 billions THB (for 5 new train lines) was spent during the next year (which is technically impossible)… Would it make a big difference ?

To put things in perspective, here are the aggregates of Thailand’s GDP (figures for the last 4 quarters, Q3 and Q4 2006, Q1 and Q2 2007, source BOT, in billions THB) :
-Private consumption : 4 449
-Government expenditure : 970
-Gross Fixed Capital Formation : 2 226
-Exports : 5 948
(Less imports : 5 392)
-Total GDP : 8 092

On this basis, a 4,5 % growth = 364 billions.

We would need actually many “mega projects” to make a difference.

And furthermore, at that point, it would be rather risky to bet on an explosion of private consumption for instance. Or a boom in exports (which start to decelerate too)…

And I don’t even factor some possible fallouts of the financial crisis in the US…

So ? Is there any people with some common sense in Thailand ? Do we have to endure, over and over, politically motivated economic forecasts ?