PPP has won the general elections of december 23. However, the game is not over.
Thanks to twisted election laws, and a constant pressure from the Junta, the political game continues. The PPP could loose many seats. Or even be disbanded !
The death of the princess is adding further uncertainty by delaying some processes.
The Election Commission (EC) yesterday set aside 83 winners from the December 23 general election for investigations into possible electoral violations – 65 of them from the People Power Party (PPP).
In the constituency results, the EC refused to endorse 79 winners. Sixty-two of those MPs-elect are from the PPP, while six are from Puea Pandin, five from the Democrats, four from Chart Thai, and one each from Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana and Matchima Thipataya.
Most of the election winners who failed to get EC endorsement are from the North and Northeast. (Nation)
The question now is : when and how the Electoral Commission will deal with the 83 ?
How the PPP, that could loose 65 seats (on 232), can negociate a coalition ?
Furthermore, the Supreme Court “will make a key ruling on January 15 on arguments raised by a Democrat Party candidate. This case has drawn attention because it could lead to the nullification of the People Power Party’s election victory.” (details on Nation).
But watch out : the court will say wether it will review or not the case… Therefore, it could say “yes”… and then the legal process would continue… For how long ? It would be obviously impossible to form a new government…
In typical Thai fashion, these actions are being pursued with a charming tunnel-vision, without considering the possible consequences.
If my reading of the mood in the North and North-East is right, people will be in no mood to accept the kind of chicanery which appears to be emerging. However, such is the arrogance and born-to-rule mentality among the Thai elite, I doubt they will stop to consider what will happen if they topple the elected government for the second time in a little over a year. They will rely on the poor being compliant and (of course), too loyal to HMK to rebel. I believe this is a mistaken assessment. There is ample anecdotal evidence that many people in the poor areas of Thailand, given the choice between the square gentleman and the golden gentleman, would choose the former. If true, that is serious trouble.
Whatever else happens, we are guaranteed a good show, and one can only guess what mischief the Chinese are making.
Beddie the Wyr
A square gentleman . . . I did not get? A crooked golden gentleman, that can only mean one and only one Thai crook with the Midas touch.
Those “anecdotal evidence” I have not heard nor believe but certainly I would not hazard trying to disprove either.
I don’t know where Beddie got the impression that if there indeed should be a show, that it will be “good”. How dreadful to seek out entertainment in such a manner . . . and which Chinese are making mischief in Thailand?
I think we could call “massive vote for PPP in North East” an “anecdotal evidence”. No ?
As for the “show”, I agree : it’s going to be… very bad.
The ’show’ could be good if ‘rule of law’ is followed instead of the ‘rule by law’ that normally happens in Thailand (including amongst the competing elites)
The square gentleman is a reference to a certain gentleman previously mocked for having a cuboid head. The golden gentleman is the gentleman behind the coup and who is now recognised as having been behind the coup by people in the North and North-East, as well as many others who know it but do not speak it. You will need to use your imagination with this one.
I would be interested to see how the Buri Ram demonstrations fare, and whether or not they become infectious. If they do then I think we will need to re-write our perceptions of Thai loyalty, however much they are obviously the consequence of sustained propaganda by the Bangkok elite. A fine example of the truth that (as Lenin said) a lie, told often enough, becomes the truth.
Some astute observers may have noticed that Bush quickly sent a message to Thailand after the election, congratulating it on ‘free and fair’ elections. This was a clear propmt that the Bangkok elite should not undermine the results, yet bless ‘em, the hint went unheeded (or unrecognised). Thais sometimes imagine they can exist in glorious isolation.
As to the show, well, yes, the behaviour of Thais does offer some amusement, I have long since abandoned trying to attach any sort of rationality to it – the recent instructions that troops in the South should wear amulets to protect themselves (presumably more effective than flak-jackets) is a particularly fine example. When I was in school and learning about the Mau-mau in Kenya, we all chortled at the primitive and superstitious nature of the African natives, who would get charged up on drugs, go through quasi-magical ceremonies and then consider themselves somehow magically invulnerable. Only to be shot to ribbons when they attacked the white man who sadly lacked their magical protection. Same same. Thais haven’t come very far. Scratch a Thai and underneath you will find a poorly educated, somewhat bewildered and frightened child, it is a consequence of the culture being banged into their heads since birth. Look at the Piaget scale of development and you will easily see where Thais are… Say it ain’t so.
On to the China thing, perhaps the reference was obscure so I will be plainer in my crystal ball gazing.
China will look at the same political map of SE Asia as you and I can, and will covet Thailand, and covetous the little blighters most certainly are. Some commentators have said that in 50 years, China will be the world’s number one economy and power. How happy will they be at having an American staging post almost on their southern border? Wakey wakey lads. The ground work is going in now, surely you can join up the dots?
Thaksin has said he wants to be apolitical and devote himself to works of charity – hardly characteristic of the man, but entirely consistent with someone who is playing a long game and would quite like to become… oh I don’t know… Thailand’s first president perhaps? By popular acclaim?
Make no mistake gentlemen, in the North and North-East today, if a vote were taken between the square gentleman and the golden gentleman…
Join up the dots guys… the ground work is being done now. Consider the verse by Herbert. ‘A man who looks on glass, on it may stay his eye. Or if he chooseth, through it pass, and then the heavens espy.” Look through the glass gentlemen.
Beddie the Wyr.