Logical consequence of the never ending intervention and “currency management” from the Bank Of Thailand (in order to curb the appreciation of THB versus USD)… the international reserves explode.
Thailand’s net international reserves, which jumped by US$5.1 billion within a week before Feb 29, have soared to a new high of US$123.8 billion (Bt3.91 trillion), including forward positions.
Gross international reserves, which are currently less than the net international reserves, amounted to $100.5 billion as of Feb 29 due to the central bank’s intervention in the market to rein in the baht.
The net reserves have risen sharply because of the BOT’s unwinding position of swap agreements to manage liquidity. It bought back the US dollar and sold the baht to counter upward pressures, causing the net forward position to drop to $23.3 billion, from $24.1 billion in the previous quarter.
And it’s important to note : it was before the 30 % reserve requirement (capital control) was lifted (on monday march 3).
And we know that since march 3, the BOT has intervened even more (read here) … Therefore, it’s easy to forecast the future… 
A very important information (apparently) is given by Nation.
The rising reserves also resulted from valuation change as the euro, a main component of currencies in the BOT’s portfolio, has appreciated against the dollar, says a market source.
The exact composition of foreign currencies reserves is kept secret of course… So what does mean “a main component” ? How many euros the BOT has ?
Exchange Rate EUR-USD :
22 february = 1,47410
29 february = 1,51270
= +2,6 % in 1 week
Let’s assume that the whole international reserve of the BOT is in Euros (absurd of course).
A 2,6 % increase of the exchange rate would mean a hike from 95,4 billions USD (position on february 22) to 97,9 billions USD (I’m talking net, excluding forward positions)…
But, the total actually reached… 100,5 billions on february 29 (datas here)…
Therefore, the explanation of the valuation of Euro against USD as the cause of the sudden hike in total BOT reserves is pure bullshit.
It’s a factor of course (because the BOT does have Euros in its international reserves) but minor compare to the simple fact that the BOT continues to buy USD, again and again.
I’ve updated the chart, with the total international reserves (including forward positions) per week and the exchange rate USD-THB (right scale).
You can see the cisor effect.
The BOT is accumulating more of something that is loosing value (USD).
And the pace is increasing…
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