Inflation (CPI): +5,3 % in march

Figures for the CPI (Consumer Price Index) for march have been published.

Headline inflation hits 5,3 % (with the index at 121,4), compare to march 2007.

Core CPI (excluding food and energy) is increasing also at +1,71 %.

“Permanent Secretary for Commerce Siripol Yodmuangcharoen conceded that the figure defied expectations, as the Ministry forecast an overall inflation for this year at the range of 3-3.5 per cent, on the basis that crude oil cost up to 85 dollars a barrel and that the exchange rate hovers around 33-35 baht to the US dollar.“(TNA)

Amazing, they “concede” !

There is one very simple exercise : take the index for march (121,4) and copy it for every month until december… Then calculate the annualized inflation rate… Result : it’s higher than the 3,5 % forecasted by the government.

Now ask yourself : is it reasonable to think that prices will decrease in the coming months, compare to march ?

Very, very unlikely. Why ? Because… we still haven’t seen the secondary effects of inflation (thanks to the very stupid governement’s policy, with prices controled and capped, for food, transportation, diesel subsidy etc.).

Therefore, the official forecast is nothing but wishful dead meat.