Follow the mysterious epidemy of foreigners… falling from condos

People who follow closely the news related to Thailand and since long time, know that there is something rather strange here : many foreigners, apparently, choose to end their life… by jumping out the window.

A quick research around the world shows that jumping from a building is not the main mean for suicide. Far from it. Even though local specificities might influence the statistics (for instance, firearms are used a lot in USA, because they are easily available, etc).

Anyway.

2Bangkok has a good idea and gives the headlines of various “incidents”… from november 2007.

It would be very interesting to compile datas… before this date.

And to make it a special category on the blog.

New elections, Samak : “I never said that”

Samak has no shame. He denied that he said yesterday morning in Malaysia that general elections would be organized after the amendment of the Constitution.

“I would like to express astonishment,” he said on Friday morning, as most newspapers headlined remarks he made to Thai businessmen in Kuala Lumpur on Thursday.

“I have never said anywhere that I will dissolve the House,” Mr Samak told the media in an ambush-interview.

“Reporters write this themselves. When I was there (Malaysia), I did not mention a word about dissolving the House,” he insisted.

On Friday, the front pages of virtually every Bangkok newspaper was dominated by reports that Mr Samak had told the group of Thai businessmen that after the constitution is amended, a general election would be held and a new government would be elected to carry out its work under the revised charter.

The official Thai News Agency, whose reporter accompanied Mr Samak, quoted him as saying:

“This government may not have an opportunity to count on the amended charter (to benefit its own working conditions). There will be a general election after the amendments are completed. It is the next government that will use it,” he said.

It was not clear how the Kuala Lumpur reports could be rationalised with Mr Samak’s statement on Friday. They seemed at direct odds. (Bangkok Post)

Anyway, from a man who said recently that the 1976 massacre was a pure invention, that only 1 “unlucky” guy was killed, everything is possible.

Any kind of denial from a man like that has very, very poor value.

It was not clear how the Kuala Lumpur reports could be rationalised with Mr Samak’s statement on Friday. They seemed at direct odds.

I like the humor of the guys at Bangkok Post. Great.

More stimulus : another tax cut for housing sector

More of the Dildo Economy, more stimulation to come

The government claims that GDP growth will hit 6 % this year, but meanwhile… creates packages to “stimulate the economy“. We had a first one (42 billions) then a second one (for rural people, with an absurd total amount of 570 billions THB), and now a third one, to boost… the real estate sector.

Anyway, it’s a good news for the boiler room.

In an attempt to boost the real estate sector in Thailand as well as assisting the poor to be able to own their own homes, the Cabinet on Tuesday approved additional measures to stimulate the economy, which it targeted to grow by at least six per cent this year.

Under the added measures, the registration and mortgage fees for buildings with land areas not exceeding one rai will be reduced from two and one per cent respectively to 0.01 per cent.

The incentive will be enforced the day after the order is published in the Royal Gazette and remain in effect until March 28 next year (TNA).

Press : “Reforming a corrupt and politicised police force will be tough”

IN THAILAND’S most sensational crimes, the prime suspects are often the police. Among current cases are a group of border police accused of abducting innocent people and extorting money from them, and a huge car-theft ring thought to have been run by bent coppers.

The prime minister, Samak Sundaravej, this month sacked the national police chief, Sereepisut Taemeeyaves, for alleged corruption. Mr Sereepisut insists he is the victim of a conspiracy by crooked subordinates.

Earlier this month the justice minister visited Chalor Kerdthes, a former police general serving life in jail, belatedly seeking progress on the “blue diamond” affair of the early 1990s, which wrecked Thailand’s relations with Saudi Arabia.

After the priceless gem and other jewels were stolen from a Saudi royal palace by a Thai worker, three Saudi diplomats seeking their return were murdered in Bangkok. The Thai police supposedly solved the case but the jewels they sent back to Riyadh were fake.

Mr Chalor arranged the murders of the family of a gem dealer involved in the case. It is suspected he can dish the dirt on other former police chiefs.

Cases of police graft and abuse of power are legion. [...]

A good article published by The Economist. As usual.

The master plan : snap elections after amendment of the Constitution

The master plan of the PPP is becoming much clearer.

A few days ago, the Prime Minister said : “if the parties are dissolved, there will be a House dissolution. The coalition government can no longer stay on. There will have to be a new general election“ (read here).

But today, the music a has changed… a lot.

Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej on Thursday hinted there would be a snap election after the completion of charter amendments.

Samak spoke to Thai expatriates at the Thai Embassay during his visit to Malaysia.

“The charter rewrite is for the future and this government will not be the one using the revised provisions because there will be the general election after completing the amendments,” he said as reported by Thai News Agency. (Nation)

I think it’s pretty clear now. We will have general elections… Soon.

For that matter, what the government is doing right now is easy to understand : short term policies, in order to boost the popularity of the PPP… in order to secure a large victory, or at least the same victory than last december.

Question : who will lead the PPP (or another party, if the PPP is disbanded) ?

The political struggle continues to gain intensity. How will react the “opponents” (the previous Junta) to this striking news ?

The generals took great care to design a constitution (tailored to their needs : weaken political parties) last august. Then after, they lost the general elections of december.

But now, it’s likely that they are going to loose their constitution… and loose the next elections !

Total failure. Therefore we could expect some kind of reactions from them.

UPDATE
Some people at the PPP and the government tried thursday night to deny and said that Samak has been “misquoted“. Sure.
Here is the quote, from TNA (government controled news agency) : “This government may not have an opportunity to count on the amended charter (to benefit its own working conditions). There will be a general election after the amendments are completed. It is the next government that will use it,” he said.

South : 5 workers killed, 2 soldiers wounded

Five construction workers were shot dead and one wounded when gunmen opened fire in Pattani’s Yarang district as the crew were heading to work site, police said.

Authorities blamed the attack on Malay separatists in the restive region where about 3,000 have been died since January 2004.

A pedestrian from Yala on his way to Pattani said traffic was held up for several hours as soldiers launched a massive man hunt for the gunmen and remove the spikes on the road scattered by the insurgents as they were fleeing.

In a separate incident, a roadside bomb went off, injuring two soldiers conducting foot patrol with his unit in Narathiwat’s Joh I Rong district. Investigating officers who arrived at the scene were also lured by a mysterious about 300 meters away near a local train stop. The box was a fake bomb, a popular tactic employed by insurgents to divert authorities’ attention and slow down their work. (Nation)

You’ll notice the striking expression “malay separatists” ! I never read this in Nation.

What an irony… A few years ago… the “malay separatists” were “mafia“, “criminals“, “drug dealers“. After, they were upgraded to “terrorists“, then “insurgents“, “rebels“…

It’s interesting to follow the evolution of the words used by officials and the press.

That tells a lot.

Last point : the tactic of the secondary -but fake- explosive devices. Before, after a first bomb attack, a second bomb exploded after the arrival of security forces on the site, in order to create maximum chaos.

Now that the army knows this tactic… the insurgents (sorry the malay separatists)… do the same… but with fakes ! Must be a terrible fight of nerves.

Thai Airways increases fuel surcharge by 15 to 20 %

Thai Airways International (THAI) has decided to raise its fuel surcharge by an average of 20% on all international flights and 15% on all but one domestic route, effective from Monday.

The move comes in parallel with state efforts to curb transport fare increases, focusing on land transport, bringing about an urgent meeting of three ministries _ finance, transport and energy _ today to discuss ways to cut fuel costs.

However, he said, the hike would cover only half of the actual increase in fuel prices as the national carrier did not want to pass on the entire cost burden at once to passengers.

THAI’s current fuel surcharges are $25 on flights less than two hours; $30 on flights from two to three hours; $35 on flights from three to four hours; $55 on flights from four to eight hours; $95 on flights from eight to 14 hours; and $105 on ultra-long-range flights (more than 14 hours).

THAI’s fuel surcharges were last adjusted on Jan 10.

Other Bangkok-based airlines, both low-cost and full service carriers, are mostly to follow suit in raising the fuel surcharges at the same time. (Bangkok Post)

The government can bark, cheat, postpone, subsidize… market laws are stronger. Always.

Oil is going up. Therefore, prices of products and services using oil will go up too. We don’t like it, for sure, but we have to cope with it.

Until now, following short term political obsession, the authorities are just trying to postpone the pain.

Rather than to try to find innovative solutions, to try to curb oil consumption for instance.

That’s the fundamental contradiction of Thailand (but many other countries too) : it wants to increase GDP (with the famous “stimulus packages”), to increase consumption, to increase exports, it wants the people to buy cars, lot of cars to boost the car “hub industry” etc. … and meanwhile it refuses to see the reality.

Choices must be made. And it’s precisely what the authorities don’t want to do.

The idea to have strong growth, strong exports, low interest rates, no inflation, increased consumption but no debts, weak currency for exports and strong currency for imports, cars but not high gasoline prices, cheap food but rich farmers etc. is just wishfull thinking in the current situation.

Price of sugar : gvt approves an increase of 14 %

The inflation tsunami is coming, by waves.

The government has agreed to increase the price of sugarcane by 14% to 800 baht per tonne as requested by cane farmers, saying planters deserve a better price to cover rising production costs. Cane farmers have been receiving 700 baht per tonne of cane sold under the previous price set by the state Office of the Cane and Sugar Board (OCSB).

However, planters have been lobbying since last year for an increase to 800 baht, saying that their production costs have surged in line with more expensive labour as well as increases in fertiliser and fuel prices.

Thailand relies heavily on the world price as a benchmark as only 30% of its production is for local consumption and the rest is exported. (Bangkok Post)

Yes, eventually, even the thai government has to deal with basic market laws… “to cover rising production costs“, they say… it’s rather funny to hear them say that.

Because according to this market law… the price of many other products and services should be increased. Right now.

But the official policy is to postpone, delay hikes, to control prices and to subsidize… Until one point. The tipping point, what I call the inflation tsunami, when it’s impossible anymore to avoid hikes.

Sugar is a basic commodity, used in food preparation (a lot in Thailand) and beverages industry… You can be sure that soon… we will hear other voices… asking for permission to increase the prices of their products using… sugar.

UPDATE APRIL 30
Actually, it’s more. Read my article here.

Lese-majeste at the cinema : “we have different ways of looking at things”

We start to have important details about the story of a thai charged with lese-majeste because he didn’t stand up during the royal anthem in a cinema last september (first story here).

Especially regarding the identity of thuis individual…

Mr Chotisak is a secretary of the September 19 Network against the Coup, and is a former deputy secretary-general of the Students Federation of Thailand.

Now, that’s a very big detail !

Other information : the other individual who asked Chotisak to stand up, went to the police soon after…

On Sept 25 Mr Nawamin asked police to press charges, but they did not call Mr Chotisak in to hear the charge until yesterday.

Therefore, it took the police more than 6 months… to proceed ! Hum… even by thai standards, that’s very long. Why now ? Why not last year ?

Then comes the really striking piece.

Mr Chotisak insisted he did nothing wrong and had no intention of offending His Majesty the King.

”To not rise [when the royal anthem is played] is not an offence against anyone. That’s what I think,” he said.

”We have different ways of looking at things.”

He said the public had the right to make a choice, whether to rise or not.

The right to make a choice according to one’s beliefs and faith was guaranteed by Articles 4 and 28 of the constitution.

Mr Chotisak called for Article 112 of the Criminal Code to be revoked. He said it imposes restrictions on the freedom of the people and had often been used against people with different political ideals. (Bangkok Post)

Chotisak… is really courageous. Impressive.

UPDATE
An article of Bangkok Post explains the origin of the tradition to stand up during the royal anthem.

Inflation, people forget a main factor : population growth

Sorry this post is not totally related to Thailand…

As you may know there is currently a large and intense debate : do we have inflation ? And if yes, what causes it ? Speculation ? Demand ? And will it be temporary or… permanent ?

I found an enlighting (I believe) remark on a forum. Nothing fancy.

But a basic idea : population growth.

Check the population clock.

The world population is projected to grow from 6 billion in 1999 to 9 billion by 2042, an increase of 50 percent that will require 43 years (US Census Bureau).

So for that matter, it’s rather foolish to think that demand will decrease for commodities (like food and energy), and ressources in limited quantities like water, minerals, oil, coal, metals etc.

Population growth is mechanically a factor of… inflation.

My point : increase of demand for finished goods, manufactured goods usually leads to… decrease of prices (productivity gains, etc.). But for… some ressources this rule doesn’t apply. Or not totally.

Some people could argue that we could live with inflation on some ressources, while we experience deflation for other goods and services. Like a balance. Why not ? Anyway, the debate is likely to continue.

No crisis at Revenue Department : 10 % more staff

Gimme more… more stimulus… more boost… more non sense.

The Revenue Department has announced plans to recruit 2,000 staff to collect more taxes.

Deputy Finance Minister Pradit Pataraprasit expressed confidence the government’s economic-stimulus package and rising prices for farm products would generate more taxes for government coffers.

If approved, the new staff will add to the 20,000 members of the department’s staff, 18,000 of which are state officials and the rest government employees. (Nation)

That’s a 10 % increase !

So to summarize : the thai government recruits more staff for the Revenue Department… while it cuts taxes… that the same Revenue Department has to collect !

It makes perfectly sense.

It’s the Thai Circus.

Look at the budget for civil servants wages… it’s already up (chart here).