Thailand Crisis

After a few hours of strike thursday, the private bus companies won the state’s support (read here).

PTT refineries [on the order of the government] agreed to reduce prices of diesel for private bus operators in the next six months, Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej said Friday.

Mr Samak said the refineries agreed to cut the price 3 baht/litre starting from June to November.

It is expected that the cutting of oil prices for private bus operators will help shoulder their burden 122 million baht/month. (Bangkok Post)

What a victory ! Let’s cheer up!

As to know what will happen in six months… and who will “shoulder the burden of 122 millions THB per month“… don’t be a joyce-breaker. Those are not very interesting questions.

Just another step toward the zimbabwefication of the country.

UPDATE
They have really no shame ! PTT is Santa Claus !

Speaking after attending the meeting to observe the discussion, Mr. Samak, who is also the defence minister, said he had to appreciate the refineries’ decision which he believed could boost the government’s efforts to cope with surging energy costs.

“We have to thank the oil refineries because their decision to cut the ex-refinery diesel price by 3 baht per litre for six months not only helps the Energy Ministry, but also the Transport and Agriculture Ministries and the government,” he said. (TNA)

And even better :

“The four refineries volunteered to cut their margins. This is not a compulsory or market-intervention measure,” Energy Minister Poonpirom Liptapanlop insisted. (Nation)

And about the total cost of this subsidy : “Four refineries will shoulder a loss of Bt2.19 billion for the monthly supply of 122 million litres of cheaper diesel to the sectors most affected by the recent high prices“

The interior minister warns the People’s Alliance for Democracy and the rally-goers that a third party is preparing to wreak havoc in order to intervene in the ongoing PAD protest.

Interior Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung states that he has received a report on a possible attack by an ill-will group, wishing to interfere with the People’s Alliance for Democracy rally and worsen the current conflict.

Chalerm says the group is the same gang responsible for the New Year’s bomb attack in nine areas throughout the metropolitan, and that this time, the gang plans to imitate a violent act similat to that which occurred during the “Black May” in 1992.

Chalerm calls for the PAD to take responsibility if chaos takes place.

The interior minister also claims that the PAD rally is receiving financial support from an ally who is an illegal lottery gang and from gambling den owners. He says some political parties support the team and are joining the rally. (TOC)

We are breaking the boundaries of lunacy there. Chalerm is going really too far this time.

Please, wake me up. It’s a nightmare.

[to refresh your memory about the New Year bomb attacks : 3 deads and 38 wounded]

Jakrapob, PM’s office Minister, has resigned.

It’s the end of a thai melodrama. Since a few weeks, he was under severe attacks (from many fronts) for… “lese-majeste“. The source ? A speech he gave… in august 2007 to the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand. Yesterday, the police said that he would be charged.

He said the government and prime minister have to be saved now for democracy in the long run.
He said he would fight the case of lese majesty to set a precedence not to allow dirty politics to prevail. (Nation)

So what will happen now ? The opposition is going to cheer. And after ? Back to reality : they will have to find the next thai melodrama.

This is where stands the political debate in Thailand right now : very low level.

The big power play (King’s succession) can’t be solved through coups nor regular elections… therefore what they have left is “lese-majeste”.

It’s totally surreal.

The local distributor of Sharp home appliances will raise the prices of its rice cookers by 3-5% on June 1 due to higher production costs.

Sharp would be the first brand to increase rice cooker prices (Bangkok Post)

It could seem like a detail. But actually this is very significant.

Because rice cookers are the most basic home appliances. A sector with huge competition, and very low prices.

In such industry, to increase prices was just unconceivable: … But it’s happening now.

‘We decided to adjust rice cooker prices because our production costs have risen almost 100%. Moreover, we haven’t increased prices for more than five years because of heavy market competition,” he said.

Thai City Electric has been using a low-pricing strategy to stimulate spending, but with production costs climbing, the company has been forced to sell some home appliances at loss.

”The price increase will make us lose some sales opportunities if our competitors don’t do the same. But we don’t want to be in red. At the moment, the more we sell, the more we lose,” Mr Virathep said.

“The more we sell, the more we loose”. That’s the key sentence. It shows that some companies have reached the breaking point.

Beyond that point, business prefer to increase prices, even if they loose sales.

The inflation tsunami is on the move.

Do you want to understand the class system in Thailand ? Read this article written by Nattakorn Devakula.

It’s about the Constitution that requires that all members of Parliament and ministers disclose their assets and liabilities to the National Counter Corruption Commission (NCCC) upon coming to office, immediately after leaving office, and also a year later.

Devakula says that it’s a huge and pointless task.

First I thought it was a joke. Like an ironic piece or April’s fool. But actually no. The guy seems really serious.

Here are some tasty quotes.

Tedious task. It took me pretty much the entire week. Typing in the form is one thing; that is not too bad. But the real effort was spent trying to track down how many bank accounts I had. Yes, that includes even ones with very little money in them.

Next I’m supposed to track down all the land that I own - plots that I bought on my own, and the ones my parents bought me (these include plots I am aware of and those I was not).

How about the next challenge of figuring out how I’m supposed to know the total amount of shares that I own in both non-listed and listed companies? Just the other week, I found a shares-ownership certificate in an old drawer. It was from when my parents purchased some equities for me when I was a teenager.

For those who live in the real world, where the ownership of shares is a very normal and mundane practice not to be seen as always rife with conflicts of interest, making a summary of all the equities you own and figuring out the value, and then having a securities firm issue statements to support these conclusions, is nothing less than a completely ridiculous undertaking.

All that took me a week. I’ve not even begun to count the bottles of wine, jewellery, rugs (I hear Persian rugs are popular among politicians these days), Rolexes (or maybe it’s classier to wear Patek Philippe), nor have I gotten my house and car re-valued so that the figures are updated.

I guess you’re speechless too ! Last but not least, he’s got a point.

Further, which dumb, corrupt politician would in his right mind place the millions of baht in bribe money - if taken - into accounts whose details would be disclosed to the NCCC?

Indeed.

Last word. Who is Nattakorn Devakula ? The son of Pridiyathorn Devakula, former governor of the Bank of Thailand, and former Finances Minister (under the Junta, but he resigned in february 2007) !

Oh… and by the way, the poor little rich boy “beginning next week will be taking a break from this column to venture out on a four-month, personal, semi-political campaign“.

We’are lucky that it’s only “semi-political” !

With such so called “elite”… the country will move in one direction… and only one : downward.

The oil crisis, like a poison, starts to fire a lot of secondary effects…

A quick sum’up :

-diesel prices hit all time high

-the gvt authorized an increase of bus fares (up to 21 %), for BMTA (public bus company in Bangkok) and for private bus companies

-but the Central Administrative Court issued a temporary injunction against the bus fare hikes

So now, new episode, the private bus operators are furious… But instead to fight the court injunction (totally surreal)… they choose another strategy : subsidy or… strike.

Good old recipe.

Owners of up to 10,000 private buses, minibuses and songtaew buses that run on diesel have threatened to stop services today in protest against high oil prices.

Private bus operators have also threatened to gather in protest in front of the Transport Ministry.

They will hand three demands to Transport Minister Santi Prompat, accordsing to Chatchai Chaiwiset, president of the Private Bus Service Development Association.

They want a subsidy for diesel prices above the 27.34 baht per litre used to fix current bus fares, and an exemption from the 35 baht fee for each non-airconditioned bus and 60 baht fee for each airconditioned bus which they must pay the BMTA.

They also want the government to rectify the shortage of NGV refuelling points.

”If our calls go unheeded, we must keep our buses idle. We cannot wait even three or four more days,” he said. (Bangkok Post)

What will happen ? Zimbabwe path. The weak government (the corpse is still moving a little bit) is going of course to comply. Inflation is running too high… transports and gasoline are just too explosive issues to handle.

Someone will pay the bill… Of course. And with interests. But later. Like usual.

Nothing changes…

UPDATE
Well… it didn’t take  long ! Exactly like I said.

Deputy permanent secretary to the Transport Ministry Piyapan Champasut stated that the Transport and Energy Ministries will be working together to help bus operators out of the energy crisis. The initial plan is to provide Bangkok city buses with cheap fuel at special fuelling stations.

They are expected to announce details of the plan, to be put in place for six months, at a press conference scheduled on Thursday afternoon.

The ministers will also be holding talks with board members of the BMTA on a request by private operators to waive concession fees to the government. A conclusion is expected by Thursday evening.

After the coup rumors (on a daily basis, read here)… the psyop war is going one step further…

The abrupt return to Bangkok of First Army chief Lt-Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha from his European trip underscores growing unease in the military about the political temperature.

Fearing possible violence, army chief Gen Anupong Paojinda ordered Lt-Gen Prayuth to cut short his journey overseas with the National Defence College, an army source said.

He had originally been planning to return home this weekend, but his abrupt return was seen at army headquarters yesterday. (Bangkok Post)

So… gross psyop with heavy political meaning ? Or the generals are living in such a dream world that, indeed, they honestly believe that the country is on the verge of civil war… and therefore because the army is the pillar of the nation (sorry… one of the pillars) they must be ready to… intervene ?

The Flying Thai Circus continues. Full speed.

China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand… most of asian countries are (pick your favorite) cheating, playing with fire, defying gravity laws applied to economy.

Bottom line : asian economies rely on cheap energy. Cheap oil.

All of them use subsidy systems, more or less sophisticated. Fair enough.

But since oil prices are on a strong upward trend, the pressure starts to mount on those systems… Scary noises can he heard from their infrastructures… Could we reach a breaking point ?

Here is an article about the situation in India. Surreal. The same thing happened in China recently. Prices capped. Oil companies and refiners started to complain. Then shortages… and eventually the chinese authorities agreed on a 10 % increase.

http://sify.com/finance/fullstory.php?id=14678154

Here is the latest episode of the “29 websites accused of lese-majeste” Saga (for the previous stories… click here).

WEDNESDAY MAY 28
Report of Matichon (thai newspaper, translation provided by Bangkok Pundit)

Mr. Man [IT Minister] stated that on the policy of closing websites for lese majeste there has been an order from “high above” that there should not be any banning of any websites and information should be distributed in an open and free manner because foreigners don’t understand the closing of websites in Thailand and might look at it negatively.

TUESDAY MAY 27
Meeting of the cabinet.

Interior Minister Chalerm Yubamrung threatened legal action against the operators of websites posting information that challenges the monarchy. Mr Chalerm presented the cabinet with a report on his inquiry into inappropriate websites.

This followed a complaint by the opposition Democrat party about the websites a few weeks ago.

Mr Chalerm said his ministry had worked closely with police to inspect the sites and found that 29 websites currently posted improper information. The sites would be shut down or blocked shortly.

He said 22 were based in Thailand while the others were overseas-based.

He said so far he has tracked down the webmasters of 27 sites and had talks with them to make them understand that releasing such inappropriate information via their websites was a legal offence, regardless of its origin.

Violators would be charged with conspiracy and punished under security-related laws, he said

So… as you can see, it’s a real flying circus. No consistency. At all.

Let’s explore some hypothesis :
-the thai newspaper is totally lunatic, and have badly distorted the Minister’s words.

-the IT Minister is totally lunatic, and changes his mind on a daily basis (depending on the weather)

-the IT Minister is not lunatic : he just changes his statements, depending on who he’s speaking to !
To the cabinet, it’s good to say that “conspiracy”, “actions needed”, “lese-majeste… horrible” blablabla. And to the thai public, it’s better to say “no problem, everything will be fine, a very important person told me no to ban those websites” blablabla…

If you see other solutions, let me know.

The inflation tsunami, and the 21 % increase of bus fares, is… delayed. A little bit.

And the situation is getting totally confused.

The Central Administrative Court has issued a temporary injunction against the bus fare hikes in Bangkok that took effect on Sunday, while it hears a case filed by a consumer group against the increases. As a result, city buses return to their old fares from today.

The injunction will last until the court rules on the petition.

The court order does not apply to increases in inter-provincial bus fares, which went up by three satang per kilometre on Sunday.

The court’s temporary injunction was in response to a consumer group, led by Boonchai Rungruengpaisansubus, which asked the Central Administrative Court to declare the fares increases invalid.

Mr Boonchai accused Transport Minister Santi Prompat, Deputy Transport Minister Songsak Thongsri and the Central Land Transport Committee of issuing an illegitimate order approving the Sunday fare increases. (Bangkok Post)

An illegitimate order ? For prices increases ?

As I wrote before : let’s make it Zimbabwe style, and let’s declare inflation illegal !

The petition argues that private bus operators are still posting operating profits and that many of the buses have already been converted to run on natural gas for vehicles (NGV).

Mr Chaiwat said the order spared inter-provincial buses because of the shortage of natural gas stations in the provinces. A representative of private bus operators in Bangkok running under concessions from the Bangkok Mass Transit Authority (BMTA), Chatchai Chaiwiset, said they would follow the court order and later appeal against it.

Of more than 10,000 private buses in greater Bangkok, just 1,700 have been modified to run on NGV, he said.

Pending the appeal, the government should help the operators or they would put their diesel-fuelled buses on the road only during rush hours, he said.

We can see the risk here : the private sector could simply reduce the number of its buses ! If they are loosing money on a daily basis, and if the government (or the thai courts) has decided to subsidize the public company like BMTA, then the market would be totally distorted.

Despite the fare increase over the past three days, private operators were still in trouble because commuters had opted to travel on state-run buses that had frozen their fares, he said.

On Sunday, Bangkok bus fares rose by between one baht and 1.50 baht, but the Transport Ministry ordered the state-run BMTA to freeze its fares to help commuters.

Red alert.

The imports of “petroleum” (= crude oil + pretroleum products + others) have increased (volume) by 12,8 % on Q1, compare to Q1 2007.

And in value (8,13 billions USD)… +82 % !

Hopefully, because the THB has strenghten, the increase is “only” 66 % in THB…

On Q1, the average price per barrel was 94 USD… Therefore, we are going to see further degradation in april and may… unless volumes start to decrease.

Source EPPO (table 02_01_04)