Here is a new version of my chart about indexes (private consumption, private investment, industrial capacity utilization, business sentiment), with the datas for may (source BOT).
I’ve changed the methodology in order to ease the reading : base 100 for all indexes is january 2005.
Plus, I’ve added another component : “expected business sentiment” (3 months ahead).
One word on this survey conducted by the BOT every month. A reading inferior to 50 means that business sentiment has worsened, and superior to 50 has improved (and 50 = remains stable).
We need to go back to april 2004 to have a result superior at 50.
Last point -important I believe- look at the expected BSI in may… there is a severe fall. It means that businesses are very pessimistic about their perspectives for the 3 coming months…
Of course, it’s just a sentiment… but we never had such fall.
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