Following some preliminary datas about the car market in june (sales of pickup trucks plunged), here is an update of my chart with official datas until may (source BOT, tables EC_EI_015 and EC_EI_016).
March and may have been strong for passengers cars (beyond the 20 000 mark). The 3 previous month with + 20 000 were december 2006, december 2005 and december 2004 (out the scope of my chart), obviously a seasonal effect…
But the commercial cars market is showing some weaknesses… And the first datas for june look gloomy for this market (which represents 61% of the total domestic market).
I guess the businesses start to feel the pain… They cut their investments… And soon the individuals will follow… The runing inflation is taking its toll on purchasing power…
The cars orgy can’t continue.
We shall have a clearer view of the situation on july 31, when the BOT will publish all the datas for june.
I am really surprised that sale of NEW cars are still that strong and largely unaffected by 40 baht/l fuel.
Maybe bigger cars are being traded in for smaller more fuel efficient models.
Have you noted that there are now fewer condos and more high end luxury cars for sale in the Bangkok Post Classified section?
Even though it might sound like a contradiction, I feel this reflect that fewer people are buying condos and more people have put their fancy car up for sale.
I guess companies are much more rational than individuals (and they don’t have the “face factor”… albeit
)
My point : they don’t hesitate to cut investments/expenses when the sky becomes cloudy…
As for the individuals… we will see the figures going south… But this move could be slow.
Anyway, don’t forget… 31 july… I guess we will have some answers.
But anyway, rich thais will always buy new cars, whatever the costs.
Even, one foot and nine fingers into their grave… they will continue to buy new cars. It’s an addiction for them…
That’s the beauty of Asia.