1) He must have failed to buy out some key army chiefs. One clear evidence can be seen from the case of Miss Daranee arrest. It had been 3 days that the police did nothing until the army put pressure on the police. This sent an important signal to Samak that any move to destroy the ongoing legal process by amending the constitutions is not very welcome by the army.

2) His team of lawyers were suddenly jailed once found attempting to bribe the judge. That 2 million baht snack box.

I think the decision to bail them will be another turning point that could lead to another round of crisis waiting to erupt in 1-2 years from now.

Thaksin is usually very patient. He can wait until the timing is right to overturn the judiciary, get back his power and 73 billion baht and make much more.

Now with the judiciary waking up from its slumber and the current government fighting for its survival the Thaksins have to be sweating bullets.

The news report I read on this from the BBC noted how Pojaman looked absolutely shocked when the verdict was read. I actually believe she was shocked. This wasn’t how they planned all of this out.

I believe both Thanksin and Pojaman have been granted permission to go to China at the beginning of Aug. I wouldn’t be surprised if one or both of them don’t come back.

Basically, “someone” (politically motivated, like we say) could be able to litteraly dictate to Thaksin his behaviour… until the appeal is done.

Talk about a bargaining chip !

Here we’re going back into the nefarious klong of thai politics.

Anyway, let’s see.

But we have to remember that… there are other cases in the pipe ! For instance, the Ratchadapisek land case, etc.

The game shall continue.

-1- If she stays and wait during the appeal… she’s taking the risk to be sent to jail.

From a technical point of view, the case is so simple, the violation so obvious, and the verdict so clear… It would be rather strange to have a totally different decision in appeal.
But, okay, this is Thailand and we never know.

-2- If she leaves, escapes, then the career of her husband… would be definitely over.

The Devil’s Wager.

The only alternative solution, to get out of this terrible trap, would be to play the card of a very long appeal… with the idea that Thaksin would during the time, somehow, take back the power… and that he would be able to suppress the legal process.

Interesting verdict but i don’t think it is a big deal for the the economy. The stock market shrugged it off and has not reacted. Its just background noise so far…

But will she really be thrown into jail? I am not quite sure. She is leaving the country for Beijing today.