Oil, cars, China : a few stats to cool down the enthusiasm of “reduced demand” believers

A few quotes from an article from Xinhua regarding oil consumption in China.

The lovers of the “reduced demand will cool down inflation” theory should revise their enthusiasm…

-Soaring world prices don’t seem to have crimped China’s oil use, with statistics released on Thursday by an industry group indicating that first-half consumption of oil and refined oil products set records.

The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association (CPCIA) said that “apparent consumption” of refined products — gasoline, diesel and kerosene — rose 14.6 percent year-on-year to 106 million tonnes, while crude oil use rose 6.3 percent to 183.3 million tonnes.

“Apparent consumption” represents the sum of net imports and output, according to the group, and can be used as a proxy for real consumption excluding inventory.

Apparent consumption of gasoline rose 16.2 percent, that of diesel 14.7 percent and kerosene, 6.66 percent, according to the CPCIA.

-In the first half of the year, car sales in China increased 17 percent to 3.61 million units, after growing more than 20 percent annually since 2005. (Reuters)

3,61 millions of new cars (cars, not all types of vehicles) in six months… That’s a lot. A lot of metal, lot of gasoline, lot of everything.

It’s insane.

To give you an idea with Thailand on 6 months (from december to may 2008), sales of cars reached 334 000, a 3,3 % increase compare to the same period of previous year…

Chart : FDI (balance payments), per quarter, until Q1 2008

Here is an update of my first chart about FDI (here), with datas for Q1 2008.

(Source Bank Of Tailand, table EC_XT_012)

A quick reminder : “Foreign Direct investment reflects the lasting interest of a
non-resident of an economy in a resident entity.”

There are 2 flows : inward (money coming into Thailand) and outward.

It’s easy to follow these flows, with the balance of payments.

Here is a document (PDF), from the BOT, explaining the statistics of FDI.

How to read it ? On Q1 this year, FDI reached 71,74 billions THB, that’s a 32 % fall compare to Q1 2007.

Furthermore (but you can’t see on the chart), figures for Q4 2007 were revised down by 4 % (68,89 billions against 71,34).

Are we back to the long term trend… of a negative growth ?

Inflation tsunami : manufacturers ask for higher prices for 1439 products

Consumers must brace themselves for another extensive round of price increases, as the Commerce Ministry has been inundated with applications from manufacturers for higher retail prices.

Nation say “inundated“… I talk about “inflation tsunami“. It’s the same.

While we entertain the plebs with a subsidy on diesel (starts today at midnight and for 6 months)… with lese-majeste, with nationalist hysteria… the inflation tsunami is building its forces, quietly.

The ministry has received price-increase applications from 73 producers of consumer goods covering 1,439 items in 19 categories. All are seeking compensation for massive rises in production costs brought about by skyrocketing oil prices and escalating raw-material costs.

-The ministry’s Price Consideration Committee has already allowed an increase of Bt5.50 per litre bottle of palm and soybean cooking oil, with retail prices rising from Bt47.50 to Bt52 and Bt49.50 to Bt55, respectively.

-Steelmakers are seeking a hike in the price of steel rod from Bt38,405 a tonne to Bt42,950 and for steel sheet from Bt39,000 a tonne to Bt48,250.

-Condensed-milk producers want a 230-gram can to go up from Bt23 to Bt34 and fresh-milk suppliers want Bt11 for a 250cc carton instead of the present Bt9.50.

-Fertiliser producers want the retail price range for different formulas to rise from between Bt10,160 and Bt20,050 per tonne to between Bt14,200 and Bt32,800.

-Animal-feed producers want chicken feed to rise from Bt436 per 30-kilogram bag to Bt532 and pig feed to go up from Bt364 a bag to Bt489.

Other food and consumer products in the price-rise queue include canned fish, powdered and processed coffee, rice vermicelli, processed food, pesticide, rubber tyres, car batteries, detergents and cement.

Under the ministry’s price-control measures, it will first ask producers to maintain current retail prices as long as possible. However, goods that rely on imported raw materials, which have seen rising costs, will be granted increases based on reasonable prices and correct timing.

Following the Zimbabwe bias, the government will do whatever it takes to delay those prices hikes. Some. But, eventually, the dam will break.

Businesses just can’t postpone their costs adjustments indefinitely, crushing their margins, to please the thai authorities… It’s just impossible.

It’s enough to look at the chart of Price Producer Index (+18,6 % in june, year on year) to see that businesses face pressure.

It’s check bill time now.

At that point, 3 solutions :
-you think that suddenly, costs (oil, raw materials etc.) will go down on a massive scale. Problem solved. inflation vanishes.

-you think that the solution is to continue the price controls policy and to declare inflation… illegal. Or to give 1 billion THB to everybody (kids too)… Zimbabwe tried. Not very successfully.
To paraphrase Churchill, they eventually got both : hyperinflation and dishonor.

-or you have some common sense, and you prepare yourself for an inflation rate on 2 digits for the coming months.

Lese-majeste, quotes of the infamous speech : General Prem, Russia, royal family, guillotine

Okay. Here are some translated quotes of the infamous speech of Miss Duranee last week at anti-PAD rally.

She was arrested on lese-majeste charges tuesday. And wednesday an arrest warrant was issued against Sondhi (he has been granted bail thursday), PAD’s leaders, because -apparently- he quoted some parts or her speech.

An audio file (MP3) is available at this address (not created by me). It lasts 30 minutes.

http://www.mediafire.com/?x3cq0ymxwg9

I should add that several thai forums are talking about this file, and of course the content of the speech.

I’m sorry, the translation is certainly not a shakespearean one, nor an academic one. I did my best with a thai friend, very quickly.

I invite experts to complete this work and/or to correct me.

16 minutes
-Prem is an old ladyboy [general Prem, member of the Privy Council, thai word used without any doubt: "katoye"]

20 minutes
-PAD and Democrat Party are on the same side

21 minutes
-Before the kings in China believed in eunuch. This is why China and the kings were destroyed.

23 minutes
-the leader of the country [specific thai word for the king]… if you want to be a good leader… you have to be like in Japan or England.

28′30
-Or you want to be like Russia… the family of the king disappeared.

-Or you want to be like France… guillotine cuts the head [obvious reference to the french revolution and the deadly machine of Dr Guillotin...]

-Or you want to be like Nepal… people made revolution… the family of the king disappeared

End
-Since 2475 [thai year = 1932] we don’t have real democracy. Thailand can not be a real democracy because we have only one group. They want to keep the power. They don’t accept what people want.

-You don’t see us in your eyes… why we would see you in our eyes ? [meaning = why we would care about you]

EOF.

So there is little doubt that Miss Daranee is in a way… toasted.

Her speech is obviously very, very strong and bold, compare to other lese-majeste cases, like for instance Jakrapob.

And now I understand better the promptness of the authorities.

Anyway… I will follow up. If you have other have details, if you want to correct and/or complete the translated quotes… cthai2 (@) yahoo.com. Or in the comments section.

Mega-projects : will the mega-wait for financing end in 2 months… ?

What’s up doc on the mega-projects front ?

Not much.

Political stalemate, judicial uncertainty, temple and border hysteria, running inflation, subsidies… the country is falling a part, but the “Mega-Projects” are more than ever the Light In The Darkness for lonely and lost politicians.

Peruse some previous articles in my special category, in order to catch up with this on going story (a… few years already).

I wrote many times that it’s useless to draw Mega-Plans of Mega-Hundred of kilometers of new train lines… without speaking about… MONEY.

Money.

No money, no honey, no Mega-Projects. They should know by now.

The government will start a bidding process for a total of four mass transit rail projects by the end of this year, Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee said Wednesday.

He said he talked with Transport Minister on Tuesday and discussed about the source of funding.

“We hope to be able to conclude on the funding sources within two months from now,” he said.

After that, the bidding process can begin, he added. (Bangkok Post)

Indeed. After. And indeed “we hope“.

So see you in october for the source of fundings.

And the next chapter of this thai drama.

Lese-majeste : if you pronounce this word, you’ll be charged (like Sondhi)

Bingo ! I was right (read here)

The court has issued an arrest warrant against Sondhi, because “he referred to a speech given by Daranee Charnchoengsilpakul, who was arrested Tuesday on the same charge“.

A quotation ! A freaking quotation and they can arrest you.

It’s huge.

The first rule of the Fight-Lese-Majeste-Club is that you don’t talk about the Fight-Lese-Majeste-Club.

The Criminal Court allowed police to issue an arrest warrant for media mogul Sondhi Limthongkul on lese majeste charge after he referred to a speech given by Daranee Charnchoengsilpakul, who was arrested Tuesday on the same charge.

Ms Daranee, alias “Da Torpedo”, was caught following her speeches on a United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) rally stage late last week.

The court allowed the arrest warrant request on behalf that Mr Sondhi break the criminal law.

If found guilty, he faces a three-year imprisonment. (Bangkok Post)

I had a few doubts before. Now I know : we are deep, deep down the White Rabbit hole.

UPDATE JULY 24
Sondhi Limthongkul, a co-leader of the People’s Alliance for Democracy, was released on bail after he surrendered to face charge of lese majesty Thursday. (Nation)

Lese-majeste : I am, you’re, he’s, we’re, you’re, they’re… arrest warrant against Sondhi

Would you have another cup of Insanity (great vintage) ?

After this case (one woman sent presto to jail)… here is a new one ! Much more important because the target is Sondhi, one of the PAD leaders (and anti-Thaksin).

The Criminal Court Wednesday approved an arrest warrant against Sondhi Limthongkul, a co-leader of the People’s Alliance for Democracy, for having allegedly repeated a lese majesty statement.

The court approved the arrest warrant at 3:58 pm at the request of police.

Police alleged that Sondhi repeated the lese majesty statement at the rally of the PAD Sunday night. (Nation)

I know what you are thinking… Nation wrote “repeated a lese majeste statement“… Let’s wait for further details. because Nation is notorious to distort reports…

There were his own words ?… Or a quotation from somebody else’s statement ?

Bring the pop-corn and put drinks in the fridge, send the kids away… the coming days are going to be… entertaining.

And don’t forget to warn your maid and your dog : they could be charged with lese-majeste too. Beware.

Dr Strangelove goes to the temple : Cambodia fears an “imminent state of war”

You’re sure that your name is not Alice and that you don’t live in Wonderland ?

Well, think again.

-At the request of Cambodia, United Nations has included the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia in its emergency session scheduled on July 24.

-Cambodian Foreign Minister Hor Nam Hong claims he feared an “imminent state of war” (Nation)

And on the thai side, we have also some very nice lunatics. Consider this one :

Chamlong Srimuang, a co-leader of the People’s Alliance for Democracy, Wednesday called on the government to pull Thailand out of Unesco’s membership. (Nation)

Amazing huh ? Next step : cut diplomatic relations with France and expulse the ambassador, because french map of the temple area is part of the problem ??? !!!

I mean how can we seriously find a proper solution with such people… ?

We are in full comedy gear, with auto-fuelled hysteria, linked to many and conflicting agendas…

Anyway the good point is : when thais and cambodians excite themselves about a few km2 of land… they don’t think about the running inflation, diesel prices, declining purchasing power, the corruption etc.

And this is priceless for the politicians.

Chart : number of dissolution of companies explodes in june

The Department of Business Development has published the figures for june… It’s a disaster.

If the number of registration of new companies ( = LTD companies + LTD partnerships +Ordinary partnerships) increases by 1,7 % compare to june 2007… the number of dissolution explodes by 215 % (3 504 against 1 112) !

The Deputy Director-General of the Department of Business Development, Mrs. Ketsiri Siriphakorn  says a large number of entrepreneurs have submitted their business termination notice to her department last month due to their lack of current economic direction. (PRD)

It’s an understament…

So we can update our chart, with the figures until Q2.

Overall I agree that to create 1 very large company for instance can compensate (from a macro-economic point of view) the dissolution of several small ones…

But still this indicator does not support any optimistic reading of the current economic situation.

Samak : politician, policeman and judge as well in new lese-majeste case

Samak does know one thing well : how to shuffle the cards in order to create confusion. For that matter, he’s a good tactician.

-Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej Tuesday ordered police to take legal action against Daranee Charnchoengsilpakul, a member of the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship, on lese majeste charge in relation to a speech she gave last week.

“The person violated the laws with her words, which affected several institutions. I ordered police to take action against the person immediately,” Samak said. (Nation)

-South Bangkok District Court approved an arrest warrant against her and she was arrested by Chana Songkram police in Phaholyothin area Tuesday.

Questions :

-Since when is the job of the Prime Minister to order arrests, for such minor case ?

-what was the emergency ?

-and why Samak is focusing on someone who… fought against the Coup (other people are accused and/or charged with lese-majeste) ?

-why an arrest warrant was immediatly issued ?

-and why the woman was immediatly arrested ?

I think the answer is clear : in the middle of a full and massive nationalist hysteria due to the Preah Vihear temple crisis (and watch out… Cambodia has just asked an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council on this issue !)… Samak is walking on eggs.

He wants to show that, in a way, he’s more royalist than the royalists.

Even though the price to be paid is more confusion, and more public scrutinity about the lese-majeste law.

Many thai politicians do not understand one fundamental idea : the more they use and instrumentalize the lese-majeste law… the more they loose their credibility, and the more they weaken the “high institution“.

Eventually, everybody will accuse everybody of lese-majeste. The peak of non-sense is not far away.

UPDATE JULY 23
Fasten your seatbelts… “Pol Lt-Col Banyong told the court Ms Daranee denied all the charges while police sought approval from the Criminal Court to take her into custody for 12 days without bail.

Pol Lt-Col Banyong said police opposed bail for Ms Daranee for her own safety as her offence was one that could result in violent attacks on her by members of the public.” (Bangkok Post)

It summarizes, unfortunatly, the country : In Thailand a murderer can get a bail… but a woman charged of lese-majeste… no.

UPDATE
It’s getting better. An arrest warrant against Sondhi, one of the PAD’s leaders and political ennemy of Miss Daranee, has been issued… because he… has apparently quoted her speech !

Read here.

UPDATE
Here are some translated quotes from the infamous speech.

First costs of diesel subsidie : 600 millions in compensation for retailers

Let’s the party begin !

The Energy Business Department will pay Bt600 million in compensation to oil retailers for their inventories, which will be sold at a lower price on July 25.

Director-general Metta Bantherngsuk said ahead of the cut in excise taxes on gasohol and diesel, 1,700 staff will inspect 15,000 service stations and 100 oil depots nationwide on the evening of July 25.

All service stations will close from midnight on July 24 to 5am on July 25. (Nation)

So friday is the big day. And where those 600 millions will come ? From the Oil Fund… that was created to… pay back the debt created by… gasoline subsidies under Thaksin government… !

Talk about a cavalry !

But don’t worry.

The Oil Fund now earns Bt100 million a month and has about Bt3 billion in reserves. It is financially able to shoulder the compensation and the government would return this and a similar amount when the tax cut ends in the next 6 months.

Now the question is… In 6 months, how the government will “return ” this amount ? Mai pen rai.

There is no free lunch. Only invitations… to be paid later.

Meanwhile… enjoy the non sense : cheaper diesel. For 6 months. Hurrah !