Chart : retail prices of diesel and other fuels until september

Update of the chart “PTT retail prices of fuels (Bangkok)”.

The peak was reached on july 7. At that time, diesel was at 43,54 THB per liter. Gasoline (regular 91) at 42,19 THB.

Then, the government decided to subsidize diesel (with the so called “rescue package”, along with free water, free electricity, read here). It started end of july. Then oil prices on the world market declined.

Today diesel costs 30,74 THB per liter, a drop of… 30 % !

Thais drivers were obviously aware… because consumption and imports of oil started to… increased again, putting pressure on the trade balance.

Therefore, the oil orgy can continue… Sabai. But watch out… the “rescue package” will end in january (6 months only, for a total costs of more than 40 billions THB)… Prices should go up after.

New government : a government for nothing

Here we go. The line up of the new government is official.

UGLY / SAME SAME BUT (NOT) DIFFERENT
-they’re back ! For instance Chalerm, the totally lunatic Interior Minister of Samak (read here when he knew who were the New Year Bombers… and other funny legal interpretations). This guy is the new… Health Minister ! What a joke. What a pathetic joke.

-And what about Kowit Watana, new Interior Minister ? He was chief of police during the New Year Bombing (after the Coup)… He was dismissed in february 2007… Apparently too incompetent.

-And Miss Uraiwan ? Ex and new Labour Minister… she’s “implicated in the digit lottery court case. The case is now being tried in the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions“. (Bangkok Post)
Is it a problem for her ? Of course not ! She has “done nothing wrong “…

-And Sompong ? Justice Minister in Samak’s government… Promoted… Foreign Minister ! He has ZERO experience in international relations… And he will have to handle some hot issues : Asean, Cambodia with Preah Vihear temple, the diplomatic passport of… Thaksin…

-And Industry Minister… Guess what… It goes to… to the former national police chief Police General Pracha Promnok. A cop for the industry ! Please wake me up, it’s a nightmare.

SAME GOOD OLD HABITS
-The daughter of Somchai, the new Prime Minister, is under fire. She’s a MP of Chiang Mai… And receveid a “loan” from… the half brother of Thaksin’s wife… for 100 millions ! And apparently she failed to make the proper declaration to the National Counter-Corruption Commission… And she has assets of 300 millions… at 27 years old. (Nation)
And Somchai who is the brother-in-law of Thaksin , “said he had no knowledge of the issue“. Of course.

It’s a tradition within thai families, like the Fight Club : you don’t talk about it.

So what we will learn tomorrow ? And next week ? And next month ?

A GOVERNMENT FOR NOTHING
-A new government to do what ? And with what life expectancy ? Apparently a very short one.
After the Electoral Commission, it’s now the turn of the Public prosecutor… to ask for the dissolution of Matchima Party, member of the PPP’s coalition ! Let’s remember that the PPP faces dissolution too…

How do you expect a government to “work” under such conditions ? It makes no sense.

Everybody knows that the PPP wants to amend the Constitution, quickly, and then call new general elections. So what Somchai could do ? He’s a mere front man… Or an oriental vase. A decorative one though.

TO SUMMARIZE
Well… not much. If you have too high expectations, you’ll be disappointed. I agree with Nation : “Somchai’s line-up is a product of the quota system“. It can’t work.

This government will probably act like the previous one, with the infamous Samak.
The only good point if i may say is that… well… we won’t see Samak anymore !

More than ever, the country is paralyzed.

Chart, credit cards : number and spending until july 2008

Update of the charts about credit cards (source BOT, table FI_CB_080_S2).

First the total number and newly issued per month.

We hit almost 12,5 millions in july (+ 121 000 compared to june), that’s a 10,4 % increase compared to july 2007. As for the details :

Banks = 4,7 millions cards
Foreign banks branches = 1,2 million
Non banks = 6,3 millions

Second chart : spending in billions THB and % of growth year-on-year.

78 billions in july, +14,3 % compared to july 2007.

Year-on-year, the usage (+14,3 %) grows quicker than the total number of cards (+10,4 %)…

But if you factor in the inflation rate (+9,2 % in july)… then it’s obvious than the average real spending per card is declining.

Said in a different manner : more and more plastic, for less and less money.

Bangkok governor elections : let’s have fun with Miss Leena

Miss Leena is like Rambo (or Batman or Spiderman…) : she always returns.

We discovered her last december… With her 2 looks (“girly pinky pinky winky go go” and “feel my tight and severe uniform”)… Check our pictures (the “evidences” I should say).

Thanks to 2Bangkok, we can admire the New Leena, who this time is running for the election of Bangkok’s governor. Nothing less.

(2Bangkok, sorry guys to steal your beautiful picture, but you don’t have direct link to your daily edition, people have to wait for your “archives”, it’s annoying).

In december, her baseline was “A woman who fight for poor people“.

Today, she’s goes… upscale and “botox injection” : “To build subway train and the BTS everywhere in Bangkok”

You’re laughing ? That’s the whole point folks !

Okay, it’s even more non sensical than the first one, but at least Leena shows to the world that she can rival her collegue… the incredible and iconic Chuwit (check the pictures gallery on 2Bangkok [apparently we share the same interest for lunatic and dadaist thai politicians])

Go Leena ! Go ! We love you.

I would suggest some ideas for the next electoral campaign (because she will of course return) :

-”The Dalai Lama is my buddy”
-”My casa es tu casa”
-”I’ve been abduced by aliens. You can do it too !”
-”Who you gonna call ? Ghostbusters !”

UPDATE
Horror ! Leena felt ! Not in the street. In a klong… Everybody knows that klongs (canals) in Bangkok are… highly toxic. A famous singer catched a long and fatal disease after an involuntary swim in one of these…
Looking at the pictures, she looks okay.

A photographer of Naewna news was right on the spot when the incident occured.

Joke of the day : not enough chairs for bureaucrats

Nearly one month after Government House was seized by protesters, more than 3,000 officials who are forced to work elsewhere complain about hardship, limited workspace and negative effects on their personal lives.

At one location, on the third floor of an 11-storey building in Soi Aree off Phaholyothin Road, 200 staff from the Consumer Protection Board are packed into a small room, where there are 10 chairs available for 40 desks.

“It’s like musical chairs. Your seat is taken immediately you move away,” said Nirote Jaroenprakob, a deputy director-general.

Jullayuth Hiranyawasit, ministry permanent secretary, said the rest worked on the floor and took turns using computers.

Many documents need immediate processing due to their legal nature.

He added that board staff had disguised themselves as People’s Alliance for Democracy members and sneaked into Government House to retrieve documents.

However, since Friday they have been unable to do so. PAD guards spotted them. [...]

Another staff member who called himself Somsak said he was once proud to work where he could meet prime ministers and national politicians. Now he felt like crying. “How could this have happened? The headquarters of the entire administration has been seized. This is unimaginable to me, as a government official, who now has not even a desk.” (Nation)

Not enough chairs… employees working on the floor… James Bond games to retrieve official documents… Indeed Somsak the situation is unimaginable !

Only in Thailand.

Exports : slowdown in august, and higher trade deficit

I wrote on september 16 :

Those figures (oil imports) give us already an hint about the trade balance for august : it’s going to be bad, after poor performances in july.

It’s good to be good…

The Commerce Ministry published friday the first datas about exports/imports for august.

Thailand’s export value for August 2008 went up 14.9 percent from last year to 15.89 billion U.S. dollars, which means the growth rate slowed from above 20 percent in the previous months. Meanwhile, imports rose 26 percent to 16.7 billion dollars. As a result, the country posted a trade deficit of 782 million dollars in August. (TOC)

Therefore the trade deficit since january reaches 2,88 billions USD. And it’s going to get worse. Exports will suffer because of the global environment.

In july, exports reached 16,78 billions (historic high).

Chart, sales of cars : drop of 12,5 % in july

Update of the chart about sales of cars (passengers and commercial), per month.

(Source Bank Of Thailand, tables EC_EI_015 and EC_EI_016).

We have a drop of 12,5 % in july for the total, year on year (compare to july 2007).

Commercial cars continue to fall (-29 % compare to july 2007 !).

Businesses continue to reduce their investments/expenses. It’s perfectly normal. And this is precisely why we can’t foresee any “jump” of the growth for the end of the year : companies are just not in the mood…

Lehman collapse, thai banks exposure : 3,5 or 6,7 billions ?

The US have Paulson and Bernanke. France has miss Lagarde. The UK can count on Alister Darling… Virtually, every country has its own sad clown. The man or the woman, like droopy, whose job is to repeat over and over, like a headless chicken that :

-the market is healthy (phase 1)
-there are some imbalances (phase 2)
-the crisis will be contained (phase 3)
-bottom out, confidence is there, everything will be better next quarter (phase 4)
-holly shit, where is my life jacket and my bottle of whisky (phase 5, the one that is coming)

In Thailand, we have Tarisa, the governor of the Bank of Thailand. Let’s be honest : like the others, her job is ungrateful.

Bank of Thailand (BoT) governor Tarisa Watanagase on Wednesday calmed the public, saying that the problems would not pose a direct impact on Thai financial institutions.

Exposure by Thai commercial banks in the Lehman Brothers debacle amounted to only Bt6.7 billion, a small portion compared to their total lending of Bt7 trillion.

Liquidity in Thailand is still ample, she said, and there is no need for injecting more funds into the system.

Her data apparently contradicted that released by Nattapol Chavalitcheevin, president of the Thai Bond Market Association, who said Tuesday that Thai commercial banks are expected to suffer an estimated loss of Bt3 billion from total exposures of Bt4.3 billion in their investments with Lehman Brothers. (TNA)

You have to admire the “her datas apparently contradicted…” Yes sweet sugar : 3,5 and 6,7 are definitely different numbers.

Anyway. Poor Tarisa. She has absolutly no idea of what is going to happen. She’s playing with words saying “no direct impact“…

Soon, she’ll learn what “indirect impact” means.

More non sense : Court accepts appeal to revoke warrants for PAD leaders

Just another normal day in Thaiwonderland.

The Appeal Court Wednesday accepted an appeal to revoke arrest warrants for nine core leaders of People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) issued against them last month.

The court ordered that the court of first stance accepted the appeal, which was filed by PAD lawyer Nathaporn Toprayoon.

The Criminal Court had earlier thrown out an appeal to revoke the warrants.

The nine key PAD figures face arrest warrants over their role in leading thousands of demostrators to lay siege to many state agencies and the occupation of Government House since August 26. (…)

According to Mr Nathaporn, the warrants for the PAD core leaders cannot be enforced now that the court accepts the appeal, so police cannot arrest them until the court orders otherwise. (Bangkok Post)

Of course, the arrest warrants can not be enforced… during the appeal process ! That’s the freaking point of an appeal. So where are we going from there ?

How long will last the process ? How convenient it is to keep the PAD alive. The same day of the nomination of the new Prime Minister…

So, we shall rejoice ourselves : the drama will continue.

On one hand, a guy is sent to jail for lese-majeste, having his bail denied.

On the other hand, if you decide to occupy the gouvernment’s house, then no problem… you’d probably have an arrest warrant glued on your arse, but mai pen rai, you would be able to launch an appeal.

That’s gracious, huh ?

Today’s special : Somchai elected Prime Minister and verdict in Thaksin’s case

A good wednesday… with enough drama to entertain us.

NEW MUPPETS SHOW

-Deputy leader of People Power party (PPP) Somchai Wongsawat is elected as Thailand’s 26th prime minister as expected, as 298 out of 470 MPs showed their support for him in the vote taken place at the parliament on Wednesday morning.

The opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva received 163 votes. There were five MPs who abstained from voting. (Bangkok Post)

The brother in law of Thaksin is the new Prime Minister. The PAD should therefore continue its fight.
But there is a positive point : Somchai is not arrogant like Samak.
Let’s see now the composition of the new government…

RATCHADAPHISEK LAND CASE

-The Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Political Office Holders is scheduled to decide today whether Thaksin, when prime minister, somehow helped his wife win the Bt772-million land auction held by the Financial Institutions Development Fund. (Nation)

Update : I guess it would have been too hot with Somchai election… “Supreme Court postpones verdict reading in Ratchadapisek land case to Oct 21” (Nation).

Chart, oil imports : jump in august

Diesel consumption rose by 7.3 percent to 43.14 million liters per day, up from 40.19 million liters per day in July. This is the first month-on-month increase for diesel consumption in four months.

The increasing demand resulted in crude imports for August increasing by 12.4 percent to 852,000 barrels per day, up from 759,000 barrels in July.

The Energy Business Department gave a comparison that in July, with diesel prices at 42.4 baht per liter, diesel consumption went down 11.4 percent.

However, diesel prices went down to 34.37 baht per liter in August due to the excise tax cut and lower global oil prices, causing people to consume more petrol (TOC)

Economy 101. The peak prices in july gave a serious blow to consumption. Then the bozo Samak, sorry the ex-Prime Minister (the retired cook) decided to offer a huge tax-cut on diesel (for 6 months only) in order to boost his popularity… oil prices on world market started to go down too… therefore the thais were able to start again their oil orgy.

Congratulations. This is serious business, long term and wise policy…

You think US people are addicted to their cars ? You should look our thai friends… The fuel disease is probably worse in Thailand, because of the powerful “status booster” linked to the ownership of a car…

Those figures give us already an hint about the trade balance for august : it’s going to be bad, after poor performances in july. We should have the first officials datas about exports and imports on september 21 (september 30 for the details, with the Bank Of Thailand). We’ll see.

Anyway, back to oil. Here is an update of my chart, but with the datas until july only (source EPPO).

Imports :

No need to comment.

And another chart, with net imports (= imports minus exports). I remind you that Thailand produces and exports oil (and other oil products). In july for instance : 275 000 barrels per day.

Therefore, this amount needs to be deducted from the total imports, in order to assess the real financial burden.