It seems that the sharpest angle of the Bermuda Triangle is tuesday 2 december, when the Constitution Court will achieve the legal process in the parties dissolution case… and could hand over its verdict soon after.
Day minus 2.
Many of us are trying to understand (and find out) the legal consequences of a guilty verdict, of the dissolution of the PPP (read the call from Bangkok Pundit).
The thai journalists and the foreign medias are so incompetent (or afraid or both) than it’s almost impossible to have a clear understanding of the legal texts (Constitution, elections laws etc.) and their links.
Where are the famous thai academics ? Where are the lawyers ? They are perfect to comment on frivolous and stupid issues… They love it. They love to be heard. But when confronted to serious stuff… nobody anymore. A deafening silence.
Because, it’s a freaking terra incognita we have ahead.
Let’s assume that the PPP is disbanded.
-unlike when the TRT was disbanded (may 2007), the PPP is in power. It leads a coalition at the House. That changes everything of course.
-it means that the coalition would collapse… The PPP would loose its MPs. The government would collapse.
Section 106 of the Constitution states :
Membership of the House of Representatives terminates upon:
(8) loss of membership of the political party in the case where the political party of which he is a member is dissolved by an order of the Constitutional Court and he is unable to become a member of another political party within sixty days as from the date on which the Constitutional Court issues its order. In such case, his membership shall be deemed to have terminated as from the day following the date on which such period of sixty days has elapsed;
-So PPP MPs would loose immediately their membership… unless -apparently- they join another party. They would have 60 days to do so.
-does it mean that the day after, all PPP’s MPs just change party, then the House convenes, and then elect a new Prime Minister… from the ex-PPP’s ranks. And back to square one ?
Nowhere we can see a clear answer to this question.
Everybody bet on a the dissolution of the PPP, but nobody dare to think about the day after.
-let’s go further. Let’s assume that PPP is disbanded, but House can’t convene (because no quorum) or all the MPs can not change party… and the process drags on… Who’s is going to handle the government ?
-and if there are real obstacles… who would be able to call for fresh elections ? No government, no House to do it.
Etc. etc. etc. I can’t list all the questions. Because I am not a lawyer.
We are left in the dark.
But beyond those (important) question marks… we could have more urgent issues to deal with.
A guilty verdict would clearly ignite the fury of the government’s supporters.
We can’t compare with TRT dissolution (at that time, Thailand was ruled by a Junta). But to disband the party democratically elected less than one year ago… is a totally different deal…
And it could illustrate the fact that no one is thinking about the legal consequences of the Constitution Court’s verdict… because it would just be pointless : with an explosion of violence between reds and yellows… the army would of course step in.
And back to Junta’s happy days with some “Council for National Security” or whatever fancy name they could find this time.
Therefore, why bother to call lawyers now to try to see through the mess ?