Comments on: Chart : 81 % of thai exports are paid in USD

By: Spectator

Spectator — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 03:43:27 +0000

The Federal Reserve is going to collapse in February oops…want proof I have none one a conspiracy I got plenty, but here is one fact congress had a closed door meeting on march 13, 2008 what was discussed in that meeting was the fall of the economy in sep. next was the federal reserve in feb, of 09 the reason why I know this is because some congressmen of course did not agree with this idea the goal is for Panic which will of course happen if this becomes so. my question to ThaiCrisis is what will happen to the thai baht and its country if this horrible event takes place.

By: Grapevine

Grapevine — Sat, 10 Jan 2009 12:36:01 +0000

Street wise says the Baht will go as high as 37.5/USD and then back down
to 32 in the 1st – 2nd Quarter.

But,, The monkeys are still out of the cage !.

By: ThaiCrisis

ThaiCrisis — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 04:26:02 +0000

Yes, that is the logic. But I want to emphasize again that everything is relative.
If we talk about competitiveness it’s relative to other asian countries… What if all other asian currencies are going up versus the USD ? There would be no need then for the THB to go down…

Furthermore, we can’t discard internal factors : politics.

I mean that’s the core of this blog, so It would be foolish from myself to discard this aspect. We are not protected from a major political crisis in Thailand (succession) that could eventually influence the currencies situation.

So we shall remain cautious.

By: dreampipe

dreampipe — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 04:00:16 +0000

cf – I think you are right but then the baht must follow it down to stay competitive otherwise the thailand just keeps looking overly expensive.

By: ThaiCrisis

ThaiCrisis — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 01:23:47 +0000

I don’t know.
I’ve just pointed out that there would be -from a logical point of view- a strong temptation to play the USD-THB card, in order to save exports. But the equation has more components, for instance the own behaviour of the USD.

Anyway, I think that the THB could loose some ground versus the USD… Like 10 %.

By: Charles Frith

Charles Frith — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 19:40:45 +0000

The Dollar is toast. It’s just a matter of time.

The way forward is for Asian currencies to rethink a regional strategy.

That’s for Asia to decide.

By: thaioutsidein

thaioutsidein — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 13:49:56 +0000

This is a very insightful. I expect Baht to steadily decline in the next year.

One minor point, disagree that GDP growth will be negative for sure.

By: dreampipe

dreampipe — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 08:59:36 +0000

tc – so what is your baht prediction for the coming months then?

By: ThaiCrisis

ThaiCrisis — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 08:22:22 +0000

Believe me : the new “administration” is as clueless as the previous one…

Right now, Abhisit is busy to redo his haircut, relocating the Asean Summit, taking care of his “friends” of the Frankenstein Coalition, giving subsidies to end subsidies, and praying for the soul of Grandma Niam… and other very important matters.

As far as economy is concerned, like I said before, nothing new, NADA, NIL.

A pathetic penultimate rescue, stimulus, boost package (whatever they want to call it), some subsidies, a nice smile, and voila.

Okay, okay, I know, I’m harsh. We should give him time…

By: dreampipe

dreampipe — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 08:04:40 +0000

tc – I have been stunned that the baht is staying so strong. Seems it will have to pop at one point. It is killing the british tourists for sure and the exporters must feel it to some extent.

I know a lot of people are sourcing in Vietnam versus Thailand due to the weakness in the Dong.

There are rumors the new administration big brilliant idea is to start forcing the baht down but so far they have not said much.

thoughts?