-VAT collections plunged by 18 %, compared to march 2008 (in february, the drop was 25 %).
-total net revenues fell 1,5 % (-21 % in february)
It looks a litte bit better. But… it’s the base effect. March 2008 was weak, with a subsidy on oil taxes for instance.
And the VAT, which a bigger indicator, remains totally depressed. The consumption is still falling, despite all the “stimulation” lunacies from the government… Bad news for the GDP.
After playing Santa Claus, the government is trying by every means to replenish the empty coffers, with “silent” and/or “sin” taxes.
Now, here is the detail of the report from Finance Ministry.
The forecast is easy to make : fasten your seatbelt in april (because april 2008 was strong with 127 billions THB in total net revenues, and because the crisis is deepening, riots etc.) and also in may.
May is traditionally a very strong month, with the first part of corporate taxes… In may 2008, the total net revenues was 273 billions THB… All the clowns at the government were relying on this famous month (and september too, the second part) to design their budget.
They are going to suffer… Why ? Because the first (the very first) effects of the recession on businesses profits, hence on corporate taxes, will show up in may… Corporate taxes are a lagging indicator…
The real nightmare will be in september.
Anyway, the shit is about to hit the fan big time. And this is precisely why Abhisit made a striking U-Turn a few days ago (he started to increase the budget and the budget deficit following the “stimulus logic”, and now he wants to make some cuts ! read here).
[to see my article about february, click here]
Look how critical is the situation…
Tax refunds for exporters may be delayed due to concerns over fraud and falling fiscal revenues caused by the recession, the Finance Ministry says.
But business leaders argue that delaying refunds for exporters only increases the pressure on their operations, at a time when demand has plummeted due to the global downturn.
Members of various foreign chambers of commerce, including India, Japan, China, Britain and the US, met with Deputy Finance Minister Pradit Phataraprasit yesterday to express their disapproval over the slow pace of repayments.
Mr Pradit said while he understood the concerns voiced by local businesses, the government was facing its own financial pressures, as tax revenues for the fiscal year ending September are expected to fall as much as 280 billion baht under target.Tax agencies, as a result, were under added pressure to ensure that claims were legitimate, resulting in processing delays. (Bangkok Post)
The story about fraud is of course totally laughable ! Classic (but so pathetic) face-saving exercise.
Exporters enjoy many privileges, because they are so important for the thai economy… So when the government plays with them like this, with empty pockets… it shows that it is really against the wall !