At last ! A Green Shoot…
And, obviously -8,5 % in september (year on year) is better than the -25 % we had in july.
The Commerce Ministry has released the first data for exports in september : 14,99 billions USD.
Imports fell 17,9 % at 12,92 billions USD.
The Bank Of Thailand will publish the details on october 31.
A classic comment (from an economist in Singapore), in line with the doxa.
When base effects kick in in November, we will probably see stronger headline numbers. Exports will continue to get better. (Forbes)
Base effect… In november last year exports in value dropped like a stone. Therefore, the % of difference with november 2009 is likely to be less “uggly”.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/economics/157696/exports-imports-down-in-sept
Another month with a trade surplus, this time $3 billion which is not peanuts by any standard. Thai export industries are holding up pretty well. Why, why, why I keep asking myselt…and I still don’t have a logic answer. This time it can’t be rice export to Iran….what then?
Why no update? Is the crisis over?
The crisis is not over. But It needed some rest, and therefore It went on holidays.
-> Bob. I will update the chart “export per category of goods”. I need some time to look at the BOT’s figures.
But part of the answer is obvious : exports are boosted by the “stimulus”… meanwhile, imports are still crashing. Therefore : trade surplus.
It’s a long run Bob. You have to be patient.
PS : after a quick look… it’s not the “rice gambit” this time… but it’s the group “Mineral + forestry + petroleum product + rubber product + cement + pearl precious stones jewelry” that is responsible for 55 % of the difference between august and september total exports (50 billions THB more).
Year on year, all good categories are still down. But this group is up 11 % compared to august 2008.
And you start to guess… it’s the sub group “Pearl, Precious Stone and Jewelry” that explodes of course. The good old trick of gold (an increase of 32 billions THB in september compared to the previous month).
The chinese (or other smart guys) are sucking out the gold of Thailand. And Thailand is eager to please (so Abhisit can say “look at my green shoots” and pronounce the “R” word : recovery.
You see Bob, everything is simple.
When are the trade numbers for October out? Another surplus?
Yep.
http://enews.mcot.net/view.php?id=12891&t=1
Thailand enjoyed a trade surplus of $1.7 billion in October
Well, that’s it then, the crisis is over and it is time to clebrate X-mas and New Year….
Indeed Bob. The crisis is over.
Until… it starts again.
Oops.