Even ThaiCrisis has been fooled ! I use the infamous word “Green Shoots” after the first publication of the total amount of exports for september.
Abhisit was proud to pronounce the “R” word. Recession ? Amid an ocean of artificial pleasures (and potent Lala drugs) during the Asean Meeting, it was more like “Recovery”. Same for the so called Commerce Minister. And of course, the stupid journalists answered “sir yes sir” (and I put Bloomberg in the same basket as Bangkok Post and Nation).
First the headline :
-exports reached 503 billions THB in september, against 448 billions in august. Year on year (compared to september 2008), it’s a decrease of 8,4 %. Far better than the -16 % recorded in august.
Source Bank Of Thailand.
But as usual, we need to look at the details…
What caused this surge in september, compared to the previous month ? The car industry ? The IT industry ? Agriculture ? Such factors would without any doubt fuel the “recovery” theory. Right ?
But what do we see instead ?
A surge of the category… “Pearl, Precious Stone and Jewelry”. Yep ladies and gentlemen, a surge of 45 % in one month… And an increase of 55 % compared to september 2008. Talk about a wild Green Shoot !
Here we go again… Exactly like what happened last february… Someone is sucking out gold from Thailand, and Thailand is eager to please.
Now ask yourself : is it healthy ? Can we like the clowns at the government talk about “recovery” ?
Does the fact of selling gold creates… any jobs ?
Attracted by high gold prices and probably because they badly need cash.. thai people are selling their gold. And then this gold is exported. Is it healthy ? Other people in the world (China)… are buying gold. Who do you think are the smartest ?
Abhisit can turn 99 times the (golden) spoon in the rice bowl and throw away some incantations (“recovery”, “recovery”) we are not out of the wood yet.
I repeat : not yet.
The recovery could come… but the facts remain stubborn : not yet.