Chart, car market, month, quarter : euphoria in december

It started again ! As fast as a V8 engine… The car market has been euphoric in december in Thailand, eventhough with a view per quarter, we are back to “normal levels” (catching up effect).

Let’s start per month.

Both market, commercial and passengers, increased to a total of 72 000 units sold in december.

Then, with the year on year percentage of growth.

The base effect (the hole of end 2008) is of course playing.

And per quarter.

Q4 was a real “Green Shoot”, on… speed.

Let’s be cautious for the coming months (catching up effect)… But without any incentive from the gvt, that’s a nice performance.

It shows that cars… still have a powerful (and fatal) attraction on people. They are willing to line up to buy cars. Social status. Feeling of power ? Or necessity ?

Who could blame them ? Look at our western morons… It’s even worse : governments in 2009 gave money away, allowing individuals to buy new cars… USA, France, Germany…  You name it. Cash for clunkers. “Prime à la casse”. Happy. More debt, but happy. And what we will do in 2010 and 2011 ? That’s obviously another story…

As for China… it became the first car market in the world in 2009 (in units)… It’s not growth anymore… it’s a mania on drugs.

So again : I won’t blame the Thais.

(source, Bank Of Thailand)

THA to hotels : “Don’t lower your prices, you’d risk to attract more customers”

Hotels and tour operators have been urged not to offer extra-low room rates and low-priced package tours to foreign agents, because of the possibility of long-term damage to the tourist industry.

Thai Hotels Association (THA) president Prakit Chinamourphong said average hotel-room rates in Bangkok were already lower than those in other major cities in the region. [...]

“What we’re considering is how we can prevent hotels and tour operators from offering foreigners further discounts.

They should be trying other strategies instead of cutting prices,” Prakit said, adding that cutting prices would not help operators to survive in the long term and would also damage the overall tourism industry.

A recent report on the Phuket hotel market prepared by local consultancy C9 Hotelworks said discounting by Phuket hotels cost the industry on the island US$300 million (Bt9.92 billion) in room revenue last year. (Nation)

How on earth people can be so blind ? So utterly and convincingly dumb ? Even by thai standards, Prakit is breaking the sound barrier of dirt stupidity.

This man basically is saying : “don’t lower your prices too much… you would risk to attract more customers”.

This man doesn’t understand that hotels are not lowering their rates for pleasure… but because of a very challenging environment !
-a freaking global crisis
-higher competition (tourism is a global market and supply is increasing while demand is shrinking)

Lower solvent demand + higher supply= prices going down.

This rule is so obvious. But still, Prakit doesn’t get it.

Prakit thinks that he’s leading… a cartel. Well, we all know that thai business operators hate competition (tik mak ! too much work !)… But tourism is a global market. Even in Thailand, the smartest and the strongest will reduce their prices. Because they have no choice.

Prakit, being a perfect thai, would like the hotels… instead to increase their prices ! It’s a good old trick business love to do here. Zero imagination. Zero knowledge. Zero talent. Little people mafia-minded. Little crooks.

We are going to rephrase for Prakit : you can say whatever you want, if you continue to build 5 stars “spa” hotels accross Thailand, and if the global crisis continues to deepen then prices will go down. Because all the hotels in the world will compete for less and less tourists.

Lowering prices is only one further step… toward bankruptcy. But it allows a few to survive, while the sheeps, the weakest are slaughtered.

It’s called natural selection. And it’s’ a very healthy mechanism in any free market.

Overcapacity must be destroyed.

And It will.

People like Prakit, like all his westerns peers (AKA the clowns : Bernanke, Trichet, Geitner, Obama, Sarkozy etc.), live in a Lalaland where banks, businesses (and banks and businesses preferably owned by friends of course) are always growing, never failing.

The January Flatulence aims at USA : “We swear ! We’re fighting IP rights violations”

Thailand’s Deputy Commerce Minister Alongkorn Phonlabutr will officially visit the US to discuss with US officials about upgrading Thailand from the current Priority Watch List (PWL) following the country’s serious efforts in continuing crackdown on intellectual property rights violations. [...]

From January to October 2009, Thailand prosecuted 6,731 intellectual property violation cases and seized more than five million exhibits, a 75 per cent increase from the same period in the previous year.

The crackdown indicates that Thailand is sincere about solving the problem on a continuous basis, Mr Alongkorn said, adding that he is confident the US trade agency would definitely remove Thailand from the list. (TNA)

Alongkorn is a liar. And a hypocrite. Like all his friends at the government.

He can throw in the air whatever figures he wants… I mean why not saying : “Thailand seized 500 millions pirated  DVD” ? Or 1 billion ? Or 1 trillion ? Who cares ?

Those figures are POINTLESS and GROTESQUE.

Because :
-since Abhisit, aka The Great Democrator (non elected but UK educated and who loves “the rule of law”), was nominated Prime Minister (thanks to a bozo coup)…  he did nothing to seriously address this situation.

-The government itself continues to break IP rights of pharmaceutical companies (US and europeans), through a grotesque “compulsory licenses” program. Abhisit didn’t reverse this policy iniated by the Junta (yes… in december 2006)  and followed after by Samak.

-Anybody can buy pirated DVD, copied software, T shirt and whatever stuff on Sukhumvit, at Fortune Town (floor 2 and 3), Panthip Plazza, in Phuket, Pattaya etc. Today, yesterday, 5 years ago, 10 years agos. And it’s likely to continue during the 5 next years etc.

-Last may, the US decided to keep Thailand on the Priority Watch List (read here). Since then, nothing has changed.

-Check some of my goodies :

-”Suppressing piracy ? We are working on it” (march 2008)
-Joke Of The Day : in 3 months, no more counterfeit goods (june 2008, Samak)
-Penultimate campaign to “eradicate counterfeit goods” (january 2009, with Abhisit)

-Hundred of thousands of people (maybe millions, all the tourists) are well aware of this situation. And it”s happening under the nose of the police… The police is of course part of this business, harvesting bribes.

So ?

I repeat : so ?

Does Abhisit have any self esteem ? Or does he really think that he can fool the americans ?

But afterall… Why not ? The “Fuck you policy” is very fashionable nowadays (China is an expert at it, in every aspect). Any small country, any third world banana republic, any dictatorship leaded by lunatics is able today (and apparently willing) to say “fuck you” to the US, to Europe.

Fair enough. It’s unfortunate…. But I guess it’s inevitable… the obvious Fall of Rome, bis repetita.

What is unbearable… is the hypocrisy of the barbarians.

You want to loot Rome ? Do it, make our day ! But don’t try to hide yourself.

Don’t try to find lame excuse.

And as usual, I will finish by the official motto of this blog: Abhisit ? Change Yes We Can(‘t).

2 sides of the same coin : more jetfighters and budget deficit

Cruel resonance…

The Cabinet on Tuesday approved the Bt23 billion budget spreaded over five years for the Air Force to buy six Grippen fighter aircraft from Sweden and upgrade six F-16 fighter jets. (Nation)

And the very same day :

The cabinet on Tuesday approved the draft 2011 expenditure budget, amounting to 2.05 trillion baht, as proposed by the Budget Bureau and Finance Ministry, Korn Chatikavanij said.

The finance minister said since the expected revenue is 1.65 trillion baht, the budget would carry a deficit of about 400 billion baht. (Bangkok Post)

23 billions more for the clowns in uniforms. And a deficit of 400 billions for the country. Well done guys.

It’s not the first time. Since his “elections (ah ah ah) Abhist has been very generous with his masters (read here and there)…

Jetfighters, submarine… you name it. It’s not a buying spree anymore. It’s Santa Claus on Speed.

The alleged Prime Minister loves  to spend money Thailand doesn’t have in order to please the army.

Afterall, so many houses to refurbish. So many new Mercedes to buy ! Life is so short, right ? And times are hard.

I can only repeat the “chute” of my last piece :

The army is not the solution.

In Thailand, the army is obviously part of the problem.

And I should add : Abhisit is also part of the problem.

Amid a full global crisis… this man, this so called “democrat” is willing to increase the budget deficit in order to buy ridiculous, useless and overpriced toys for the army.

Childish ? Corrupted ? Cynical ? Or just plain dumb ?

Abhisit ? Change, Yes We Can(‘t) ! More than ever.

2 sides of the same coin : fireworks at the border and a defiant officer

A brief fight between Thai and Cambodian soldiers on the disputed site near Preah Vihar Temple was caused by misunderstanding and has been resolved, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said Monday.

There is no report of casuality from both sides after they exchanged gunfire early Sunday about 20 kilometers from the temple. (Nation)

Abhisit is the misunderstanding. The alleged Prime Minister is unable to calm down and to give orders to a bunch of trigger-easy lunatics in military fatigues, the so called “Thai Army” ! It’s unbelievable.

It’s not the first time than those nuts are playing with their guns, like retarded children, at the border with Cambodia (read here, and there). So no surprise. Enough of the misunderstanding. No “oops I did it again”.

Where is Britney Spears ?

And each time, the clowns in Bangkok say “it’s a misunderstanding. Sorry, It won’t happen again”.

Of course, it’s a political game too… Abhisit is a victim… but also an accomplice. This little (and artificial, and grotesque) tension can serve him (with the story of Thaksin in Cambodia), to show that he’s a real warrior (ah ah ah ah), a real man.

Now, let’s look at the other side of the same coin :

Army specialist Khattiya Sawasdipol, or Seh Daeng, said on Monday he would not rush to report to police to acknowledge charges of wrongful possession of war weapons found at his house.

Maj-Gen Khattiya said he would surrender to police, but he would wait another seven days or so to let things cool down a bit and then he would surrender in the early hours of the morning, possibly between 2am and 4am. (Bangkok Post)

Voila ! Another lunatic who thinks that he is above the law, because… well he wears an uniform and because he loves guns.

I mean : what’s going on ? Who is this guy with those ridiculous James Bond scenarios (“I’ll arrive between 2h15 and 3h48 AM, I’ll wear black sunglasses. Why ? Because my name is Seh Daeng with a S and a D.”) ?

Wake me up, it’s a nightmare.

Those are 2 small events. Indeed. But they are symbolic. They show what is the biggest problem for the country, its biggest liability : the army.

The army is not the solution.

In Thailand, the army is obviously part of the problem.

BOT’s fantasies rewritten by the thai press fantasies

Consider this headline from the Nation :

The Bank of Thailand yesterday officially signalled a policy-rate hike in the second half of the year but promised to take into account the pace of economic recovery and inflation before making any move.

Then, read what was really said by the Bank Of Thailand :

He said monetary policy could return to normalcy this year if the private sector and the economy saw stable expansion. If core inflation rises above 2.3 per cent in the third or fourth quarter in the wake of higher oil and commodity prices, the central bank may consider the possibility of increasing the policy rate.

First : the current monetary policy is abnormal. We knew it. But it’s good to repeat it for the sheeps.

Second : the BOT never said It would increase rates. They just repeated what the textbooks are saying : if inflation remains low, if the economy is growing… if… if… if then the central bank “may consider” increasing rates.

Let’s put it that way, for the morons at Nation : text books and fantasies are useless.

And since people who are able to connect at least 2 neurons know that there isn’t any sustainable recovery, just several dope fixes injected to the world economy, then the situation will get worse, then any rate hike is likely to remain a fiction. A fantasy.

Now, let’s study the own fantasies of the thai Central Bank. And you’ll find out why I call them “morons”.

Consider this striking sentence :

At a press conference yesterday, BOT Assistant Governor Paiboon Kittisrikangwan said inflation would remain low this year, because the government had extended its measures to ease the cost of living until the end of the first quarter. Headline inflation, without volatile items like energy, could be 3-5 per cent, while core inflation could be 1.3-2.3 per cent.

The BOT official states that inflation will remain low… BECAUSE THE GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIZES PRICES OF SEVERAL GOODS AND SERVICES.

Breath. Five minutes. And then read again. Voila

A magistral proof that those so called “officials” are totally moronic, indeed. It’s even an understatement.

If we follow their twisted logic, then inflation couldn’t exist anymore on earth (and the solar system). Just declare it illegal, and/or subsidize ALL the prices. Case closed.

Damned ! I’m wondering why Germany didn’t find this magical cure in the 1920s. Or more recently Zimbabwe. Or Venezuela.

But let’s be clear : this insanity is absolutely not an exclusivity of thai central bankers… I mean, if you look around, the FED, the BOJ, the ECB… it’s even worse. Much worse.

With such clowns driving our car… the crash against the 2010 Great Wall is likely to be bloody. And really messy.

Accused of corruption ? Give a toy to the plebeians, like a referendum for teenagers

Chairman of the sufficiency economy project, Mechai Viravaidya, will this Friday reveal guidelines on fund allocation to district chiefs nationwide. He said these guidelines should minimise corruption because provisions have been made for those involved in graft to face criminal charges.

The project had been initially suspended due to reports of corruption. Mechai attributed the negative news to poor public relations and lack of public understanding and participation. Of the projects submitted earlier, 74 per cent were for the procurement of equipment.

“Under the new guidelines, anybody above the age of 15 is entitled to voice their opinion. This is the first time that the country’s youth, numbering about 5 million, will offer opinions on how the Bt18.6-billion government budget should be allocated,” he said.

A nationwide referendum for most-needed projects will take place on January 31 and participants will be encouraged to point to all traces of corruption. (Nation)

Vertigo… ! Breathtaking ! Pills, we need pills !

Instead of addressing these accusations, the government is toying with cheap marketing tricks…

And you’ll appreciate the ridiculous rethoric : “we can’t do wrong, because we would face criminal charges, so you see we really can’t do wrong”.

And why not asking the new born babies for their opinions ? Or the elephants perhaps ? Sure, that would be trendy. It would probably please Abhisit the Great Communicator.

They are totally burned out.

Anyway, the bottom line is :
-confronted with accusations of corruption… the government tries everything It can to create red herrings, in order to divert attention.
-since we are heading toward the The Mother Of All The Battles (with Thaksin, at least this is what they say)… The government needs badly to give away huge amounts of money, to buy people, minds and votes.

Change with Abhisit ? Yes We Can’t. More than ever.

Let’s organize a referendum for babies to find out. Or for animals. And plants too (no discrimination). That could be revealing.

Recovery Green Shoots Salad : producers told to freeze their prices… for 3 months

Ironic beauty of the thai political system : Thaksin ? The Junta ? Samak ? Somchai ? Abhisit ? Different views and bitter political feuds ?

Bullshit.

The same lunatics, the same family, as far as the economy is concerned.

Let’s take the latest example. The current (ah ah ah) Commerce Minister (check here for her impressive background)

“Although the economy is already beginning to recover, this is not the right time to adjust the product prices yet because it would increase people’s spending burden,” Mrs Portiva said.

“I would like the producers to freeze their product prices for at least three more months to maintain the inflation rate at 3.5 to four per cent.” [...]

Mrs Porntiva said her ministry would ask the cabinet to watch price movements of 40 items under the goods and services control programme plus more than 200 other items on a special watch list to prevent manufacturers from raising prices unnecessarily to the public detriment. (Bangkok Post)

It’s a cut and paste of the inane and short sighted policies designed by Samak, during the Great Inflation Fear (in 2008, remember with peak oil prices at 140 USD in july 2008) ?

Miss Porthiva is as stupid as her predecessors (check my inflation category in 2008, it was a true festival at that time, read here and there and here).

What’s the point to save “3 more months” ? Oh yeah… you remember, we are supposed to endure scary political fightings before april ? How convenient.

Anyway. Porthiva should stop talking, and should stop mixing economy with cheap politics and with issues she obviously doesn’t understand.

She wants  more prices controls ? Sure, have a look at Venezuela. Same causes will lead eventually to the same effects.

Anyway 1 year and a half after the fall of Samak, and after a deep economic crisis, the so called Abhisit government is doing exactly the same than their alleged political opponents :

-stimulus, subsidies
-free programs, hands outs
-mega projects as red herrings
-prices controls

etc. It’s easy : take the headlines of newspapers and just change the names of the so called ministers.

Oh and by the way… It would be interesting to hear some comments from Korn, the smart, young, witty (Abhisit’s buddy) and so modern Finances Minister (of the year !).

How can he look himself in the mirror while the Commerce Minister supports prices controls, like in a good old style soviet country ?

King : 4 months in hospital and Abhisit says people should stop to rely on King’s interventions

On january 19, It will be 4 months… The King has been hospitalized on september 19th. The last time he was seen in public was in december, for a very brief speech (read here and my article here).

Meanwhile, Abhisit had some very strange words during a speech (in english) at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand.

Speaking to the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand, Abhisit said the country had “struggled at times of crisis to solve problems”, in which 82-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej’s role had been “critical, crucial, vital”.

He noted in particular events of 1992, when the King publicly admonished the then-PM and a protest leader to end bloody clashes in Bangkok. The monarch has also made more recent calls for unity to prevent the country’s collapse.

“Now what I’m saying is that it would be better if we can all resolve these issues without having to rely on His Majesty’s interventions, even though they are always within the framework of the constitution. It will take time,” Abhisit said late Thursday. (Bangkok Post)

Why ?  Abhisit says “stop” but he doesn’t explain “why” !

That’s the core question.

Why the thai people should try to solve their political conflicts without the King’s interventions ? Why It would be “better” without ?

Abhisit dares to say that without any justification. It’s striking.

His Majesty did intervene in 1992 after the Black May (yes, you have to remember, the insane crazy military dared to shoot at people, like dogs). And Abhisit said the King’s intervention was “critical, crucial, vital “.

So ?

Why It was “vital ” in 1992, but It would be wrong in 2010 ? The Prime Minister is contradicting himself.

Afterall, if the situation is totally blocked, King’s interventions are the only way to find a way out. And he’s perfectly in his role by doing so, beyond partisan boundaries. That’s exactly the definition of a monarchy.

So what Abhisit is trying to say ? Should we try to stop to rely on the King’s invervention because they are wrong, or because he won’t be able anymore to intervene ?

Chart, BOT on hold at 1,25 % and the new concept of “enhancing economic recovery”

The meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has agreed to keep the repurchase rate unchanged at 1.25 per cent - a rate suitable for enhancing economic recovery, a source at the Bank of Thailand said on Wednesday. (Bangkok Post)

Another perfect non event. And another big laugh.

Notice the weird concept : “enhancing economic recovery”.

Let me translate for you :

-we broke your ears with the so called “recovery” since several months

-but us at the Central Bank, we know very well it’s pure bullshit, just a funny fart as far as GDP is concerned, ignited by “stimulus packages” worldwide (have a sniff of our good cocaine, or ya-ba perhaps ?). There isn’t of course any sustainable and real recovery. But the show must go on.

-this is why we can’t, no way, increase our rates, AKA the price of money… Because it would kill people and businesses and governments indebted (that is : us, you, them, everybody, like the Blues Brothers were singing)…

For that matter, as thai central bankers, we are following the Mother Of All Central Banks, AKA the US Federal Reserve. In the US, they can’t increase interest rates, eventhough they are talking about “exit strategies“… Because it would sign the implosion of the whole system. Of course, they can’t lie forever, nor we can’t, but right now we just try to gain some time… Until what ?

Well, we don’t really know : the rebirth of Jesus. The fall of an asteroid. Or something like that. Not sur. But we’re working on it.

-but anyway, you, as the plebeians, you have to believe us, and… you have to pay our dear friends working at commercial banks

-because thanks to the cheap money we provide, banks are making a killing thanks to an increasing spread (difference of the price they pay for this money, and the price they charge you, the plebeians, for lending you this money).

That’s not the only tool they’ve got : they can take also this cheap money at 1,25 %  coming out fresh from our printing presses, and then start to speculate with it. It’s working too, and very well !

Voila. Now, I thinks it’s clearer, no ? [I think I could really work in a Central bank].

It’s time to update my famous chart (last time was in april 2009 ! Time goes too fast).

Methodology : for the first working day of each month, I take the Minimum Lending Rate of the Bangkok Post, and the repurchase rate of the Bank Of Thailand.

Why Bangkok Bank ? Because it’s the biggest thai bank. Disclaimer : “Minimum Lending Rate” does not mean… well… the minimum lending rate. People can have lower rates.

But still, you get my point. Since the BOT slashed interest rates to a ridiculous 1,25 %, we can clearly see that the spread is increasing.

It means : more profit for the commercial banks (disclaimer : on the paper only, if no one is borrowing this money then of course the bank doesn’t make any profit).

The meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has agreed to keep the repurchase rate unchanged at 1.25 per cent – a rate suitable for enhancing economic recovery, a source at the Bank of Thailand said on Wednesday.

Voluntarism or wishful thinking : “Thai Airways’s ranking plunges but we aim at 5 stars”

THAI president Piyasvasti Amranand said he was confident that the flag carrier could attain a five-star rating from Skytrax, a UK-based research firm which polls passengers worldwide on the quality of airlines. [...]

THAI’s rating plunged to 10th in the world last year from fourth place in 2008, according to the highly regarded Skytrax survey, which polled more than 16 million air travellers from over 95 nationalities.

The poll backs growing criticism of the quality of service offered by the flag carrier compared with other global airlines, which seem to work harder and spend more money on attracting international travellers.

THAI ranked second in 2007. (Bangkok Post)

I mean you have to admire the guy… Somebody else would have said  “damned, we are in deep doo doo, our ranking is falling faster than one of our old B747 during take off”. But not Piyasvasti.

Is it an extreme and positive voluntarism ? A joyful naivete ? Or wishful thinking ? Or just a classic string to the “good old ways” (read : saving face) ?

I would like to remind you what the Thai Airways president said just 3 months ago… About his company.

“The management had not really been allowed to manage the company,” Mr Piyasvasti said in an unusually frank interview.

“The company had been interfered heavily by the board, by the politicians.

“Thai Airways was a company which did not provide transparent information to investors,” he said.

“Thai Airways management were not able to provide clear directions or policy to investors. Most of the big funds, whether in Thailand or outside Thailand, stayed away from Thai Airways stocks.”

Hum…

Anyway. The ranking makes perfectly sense.

Thai Airways became the shadow of the image it had before. Political influences (politicians and the military), delirious unions, low level management, scandals (latest one : a VP caught his fingers into the honey pot with his 400 kilos of luggages), old fleet and no money to renew it, financial results in a black hole… and even… old female flight attendants !

The company is a perfect mixing of so many thai problems.

So rather to aim for a “5 stars ranking”, thanks to a re-fitting of business class seats (a program not even finished, meanwhile competitors are buying new airplanes)… Piyasvasti should perhaps… land a little bit, and continue the cleaning job.

Before to redo the painting, it’s necessary to clean first.

Thai Airways can’t compete right now against Singapore Airlines for instance. Or even Emirates.

I know, it’s bad for the thai proudness… But that’s a fact.