“He tries to avoid this :”

looks like once again he couldn’t (or didn’t want to?) avoid it.

Emergency is declared, rumors of tanks on the streets overnight

Inspired by Korn’s example , Obama also has finally decided to show his true color and genuine sympathies.

It has been noticed for a while that Obama is secretly expressing his solidarity with Red-shirts at least in some elements of his dress.

Now it looks like there is no any more concealing the fact that he
himself, his wife,
daughter are red-shirts !

more than that – apparently he has already subverted into red-shirts Hillary Clinton, Sarah Palin, Nancy Pelosi and even Nancy Reagan !

So, today he has arrived to Bangkok along with … Pope Benedict, Tiger Woods, some other fellow Africans and his own Red-shirts team and joined Red-shirts rally.

Remember, it is not his government, but Suthep’s and Prem’s. And I would not bet on Abhisit winning the next election for the Dem. His use as a puppet had come to an end, so why not use him for last dirty job then discard?

Next Dem’s puppet leader probably be Apirak or Korn, with Suthep as the real PM of course.

A big part of the current supporters for the Democratic Party would defect the to ‘New Politics Part’ and not to ‘Pue Thai’. I suspect that even after new elections we still would have the 50 / 50 situation between pro and contra Thaksin. And whatever side win’s, the other side will come out in street protest to force new elections.

You wrote:

… If the Red Shirts manage to keep the pressure on the long run then Abhisit is going to be in a real hot bed …

I would say:

Not only Abhisit would be in a hot bed but the entire country will suffer. If the governement surrenders un-conditionaly into the requests of the ‘red’ and dissolve the parliament within 15 days (and maybe disolve the Democratic Party as requested in the latest statements from the ‘red’) the country will become impossible to govern. In order to re-install ‘law and order’ it will end up in a dictatorship from either side. And again the ‘poor’ people will suffer because they have to remain in a ruined country while the ‘rich’ always hav options to ‘buy’ themself out.

If the red’s really whant to help the ‘poor’ they should come up with some concret positive suggestion what should be changed. Just dissolve the parliament, new elections, bringing back Thaksin and dissolving the Democratic Party will not be enough. As long as the ‘red’ don’t have a political program for the future of Thailand, they will not be considered to bring the country forward. You might disagree with the ‘yellow’ but they at least have a clear plan how to change Thailand. They also make this plan public and everybody in this country can be for it or against it. The ‘red’ are not there yet.

Anti-riot arsenal piles up

“A vast arsenal of anti-riot equipment – worth 243 million baht – has been bought or ordered since the ISA was invoked more than three weeks ago.”

But I stick to my “royal succession bias” (since the opening of this blog, AKA june 2007).

I mean : despite long protests, even violence, it would be impossible for the military apparus to tolerate fresh elections… The country is over-polarized. Therefore, people would rush to vote, like a big “referendum”. Even people who dislike Thaksin for instance, would vote “against” Abhisit and therefore “for” the opposition etc.

Plus the fact that the military apparatus (and their puppets the Democrat Party) can’t win general elections. Do the maths, it’s impossible.

So, they can rely only on :
-delays (and continuous volatility)
-mafia bargaining (like the Frankenstein Coalition with the infamous Newin)
-or (last card) plain action, AKA a coup.

TC, have you changes your mind about the possible success of the Red´s shirt to get Abhisit to dissolve parliment?

Or do you still think that nothing will happen until after the Royal Succession?