Comments on: ABOUT http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com Politics, Economy, Insurgency : Crisis Times in Thailand Sun, 20 Dec 2009 19:23:24 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: Jerry http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/about/#comment-9985 Jerry Tue, 03 Nov 2009 17:08:42 +0000 #comment-9985 It is not casual the peaks in export of jewelry coincides with the bi-yearly Bangkok Gems and Jewelry fair which is held in late February and mid September of every year. Actually, I work in this sector of export too and I call assure you jewelry business is going bad for 90% of Thai small-medium companies. Who is making a fortune are just a couple of big fish who managed to get really big customers from new markets like: Middle East, Turkey, Russia, China and Brazil. THB might not be overvalued for the current buy and offer situation, but if we really talk about long term instrinc capital in Thailand , THB is highly overvalued... it is just surviving for a huge black money from allover the world which is disguised in exchange rate companies (you know which one I mean) which are controlled by the army and in turn by (you know WHO I mean)... a single catalyst (you know which catalyst I mean) would be enough to destroy all this situation like a castle of cards.... It is not casual the peaks in export of jewelry coincides with the bi-yearly Bangkok Gems and Jewelry fair which is held in late February and mid September of every year.
Actually, I work in this sector of export too and I call assure you jewelry business is going bad for 90% of Thai small-medium companies.
Who is making a fortune are just a couple of big fish who managed to get really big customers from new markets like: Middle East, Turkey, Russia, China and Brazil.

THB might not be overvalued for the current buy and offer situation, but if we really talk about long term instrinc capital in Thailand , THB is highly overvalued…
it is just surviving for a huge black money from allover the world which is disguised in exchange rate companies (you know which one I mean) which are controlled by the army and in turn by (you know WHO I mean)…
a single catalyst (you know which catalyst I mean) would be enough to destroy all this situation like a castle of cards….

]]> By: Jerry http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/about/#comment-8900 Jerry Wed, 10 Jun 2009 11:49:36 +0000 #comment-8900 That s completely FALSE THB is terrible OVERVALUED compared to any currency in the world: The Big mac index is the most stupid statics ever made. You can compare Thai prices of staple which is EXTREMELY more expensive than countries much richer and adavnced than Thailand in every aspect:GDP, HDI, etc.. THB has been one of the strngest currencies in the world..the 25 /1USD value you talking about is completely bullshit and nosense, that was anartificial value, the real value we saw later at over 50 for 1USD (57 in fact)... Compared to which currencies ?? Compared to all the third world countries currencies THB HAS RISEN LIKE CRAZY despite being a much poorer, undeveloped country with a very bad GDP growth. Take the 200 world currencies one by one and make the comparision of the past 10 years and add it the inflation rate too (if you don t do that it will be a nonsense statistic): the result is clear: THB is the most overvalued currency in the world, how can one by so idiot to put only the price of a Big Mac ? I made a grill with over 50 basic prices amongst countries with simlar and higher HDI than Thailand: the result is clear. THB value is the biggest scam in financial history, look the south korean won, the indian rupiah, all the latinamerican cuurencies, all african currencies, etc...in the past 5 or 10 years they are all between 10% and 100% lower compared to THB ,despite Thailand having by far the most unstable politics and amongst THE LOWEST GDP growth rate. THB should be at least 45 for 1 USD which is still more expensive than its value post 1997 crisis . PS: Now THb is not 35 , but buying rate today is 33.7 ...still rising like crazy despite Thai economy performing much worse than US economy (2009 GDP plunge in Thailand will be worse) That s completely FALSE
THB is terrible OVERVALUED compared to any currency in the world: The Big mac index is the most stupid statics ever made.
You can compare Thai prices of staple which is EXTREMELY more expensive than countries much richer and adavnced than Thailand in every aspect:GDP, HDI, etc..
THB has been one of the strngest currencies in the world..the 25 /1USD value you talking about is completely bullshit and nosense, that was anartificial value, the real value we saw later at over 50 for 1USD (57 in fact)…
Compared to which currencies ??
Compared to all the third world countries currencies THB HAS RISEN LIKE CRAZY despite being a much poorer, undeveloped country with a very bad GDP growth.

Take the 200 world currencies one by one and make the comparision of the past 10 years and add it the inflation rate too (if you don t do that it will be a nonsense statistic): the result is clear: THB is the most overvalued currency in the world, how can one by so idiot to put only the price of a Big Mac ?
I made a grill with over 50 basic prices amongst countries with simlar and higher HDI than Thailand: the result is clear.

THB value is the biggest scam in financial history, look the south korean won, the indian rupiah, all the latinamerican cuurencies, all african currencies, etc…in the past 5 or 10 years they are all between 10% and 100% lower compared to THB ,despite Thailand having by far the most unstable politics and amongst THE LOWEST GDP growth rate.
THB should be at least 45 for 1 USD which is still more expensive than its value post 1997 crisis .

PS: Now THb is not 35 , but buying rate today is 33.7 …still rising like crazy despite Thai economy performing much worse than US economy (2009 GDP plunge in Thailand will be worse)

]]> By: ThaiCrisis http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/about/#comment-8899 ThaiCrisis Wed, 10 Jun 2009 08:35:57 +0000 #comment-8899 Jerry : I didn't try to compare THB with other BRIC currencies. I was just focusing on the BOT foreign currency reserves, and the couple THB-USD. Now, regarding the issue of the THB "valuation". It's a tricky and very relative issue. When you say that the THB is "one of the strongest" in the world, I don't really agree. Compared to what ? And within which time frame ? in 1997 we could indeed say that the THB was vastly overvalued (1 USD = 25 THB). So now, at 35 ? An analysis more like "purchasing power parity" would be better. Like for instance how much local money (+ value in USD) to buy 1 liter of gasoline for instance. Or something I like very much : the Big Mac Index (from The Economist). http://www.economist.com/markets/indicators/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13055650 This system tells us that... the THB is undervalued against the US Dollar ! ;-) Jerry : I didn’t try to compare THB with other BRIC currencies. I was just focusing on the BOT foreign currency reserves, and the couple THB-USD.

Now, regarding the issue of the THB “valuation”. It’s a tricky and very relative issue. When you say that the THB is “one of the strongest” in the world, I don’t really agree. Compared to what ? And within which time frame ? in 1997 we could indeed say that the THB was vastly overvalued (1 USD = 25 THB). So now, at 35 ?

An analysis more like “purchasing power parity” would be better. Like for instance how much local money (+ value in USD) to buy 1 liter of gasoline for instance.
Or something I like very much : the Big Mac Index (from The Economist).
http://www.economist.com/markets/indicators/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13055650

This system tells us that… the THB is undervalued against the US Dollar ! ;-)

]]> By: Jerry http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/about/#comment-8898 Jerry Wed, 10 Jun 2009 05:46:50 +0000 #comment-8898 Your last analysis is correct but short-sighted, in fact THB has been rising like crazy against these currencies like Brazilian real, Russian roble, Indian rupiah, etc.... May gains of these currencies followed months of COLLAPSE against the USD...Brazilian real from 1.55 to current 2.00, Indian rupiah from 39 to 47, Roble from 24 to 31... So if we compare these booming (now not so booming, but still MILLIONS times better than broken Thai economy) countries currencies vs the THB , THB is much much more expensive compared to these currencies and compared to most currencies in the world. But what a pity, Thailand has a much worse economy, terrible public debt, one of the worse political situation in the world, civil war in the south, one of the lowest interest rates, but its currency one of the strongest in the world (only one month May 2009 is a short period of time, you should look at a longer trend). The obvious conclusion in THB is by far the world most overvalued currency, as Thai property market is also one of the world most overvalued market..... still asking $10000 a square meter amongst the horrible smog and traffic of Sukhuvit Road, when for 10 TIMES LESS you can buy a property in front of the beach in Florida 50 km from Miami.... Both THB and property market are deeply overvalued Your last analysis is correct but short-sighted, in fact THB has been rising like crazy against these currencies like Brazilian real, Russian roble, Indian rupiah, etc….
May gains of these currencies followed months of COLLAPSE against the USD…Brazilian real from 1.55 to current 2.00, Indian rupiah from 39 to 47, Roble from 24 to 31…
So if we compare these booming (now not so booming, but still MILLIONS times better than broken Thai economy) countries currencies vs the THB , THB is much much more expensive compared to these currencies and compared to most currencies in the world.
But what a pity, Thailand has a much worse economy, terrible public debt, one of the worse political situation in the world, civil war in the south, one of the lowest interest rates, but its currency one of the strongest in the world (only one month May 2009 is a short period of time, you should look at a longer trend).
The obvious conclusion in THB is by far the world most overvalued currency, as Thai property market is also one of the world most overvalued market….. still asking $10000 a square meter amongst the horrible smog and traffic of Sukhuvit Road, when for 10 TIMES LESS you can buy a property in front of the beach in Florida 50 km from Miami….
Both THB and property market are deeply overvalued

]]> By: Jerry http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/about/#comment-8875 Jerry Sun, 07 Jun 2009 16:49:53 +0000 #comment-8875 Actually, THB vs. USD is moving, sometimes quite fast, THB has gained 5% in few weeks. I have observed carefully the THB and the other asian currencies in the past few years and there is only 1 currency which has pretty much almost the same exchange rate vs. THB: The Singaporean Dollar. THB is following Singaporean Dollar, not USD. Than, Singaporean Dollar is related to USD , coz it is moving within a band....but, please, watch month by month for the past 3-4-5 years the THB rates vs. some asian currencies and vs. major currencies: they all have fluctuaction including USD, except the Singaporean currency. So, the THB-USD relationship is indirect. Thailand economy is completely different from that of Singapore's : I don t think this pseudo-peg can work indefinitely as no peg has ever worked: I remember when everybody was praising Argentina peso parity with USD...and everybody was fully convinced that parity was deemed to be ethernal....or the THB at 25 for USD....if you prefer to stay closer....well,...nothing is ethernal,,the pseudo-pegs are not even long-lasting... Actually, THB vs. USD is moving, sometimes quite fast, THB has gained 5% in few weeks.
I have observed carefully the THB and the other asian currencies in the past few years and there is only 1 currency which has pretty much almost the same exchange rate vs. THB: The Singaporean Dollar.
THB is following Singaporean Dollar, not USD.
Than, Singaporean Dollar is related to USD , coz it is moving within a band….but, please, watch month by month for the past 3-4-5 years the THB rates vs. some asian currencies and vs. major currencies: they all have fluctuaction including USD, except the Singaporean currency.
So, the THB-USD relationship is indirect.
Thailand economy is completely different from that of Singapore’s : I don t think this pseudo-peg can work indefinitely as no peg has ever worked: I remember when everybody was praising Argentina peso parity with USD…and everybody was fully convinced that parity was deemed to be ethernal….or the THB at 25 for USD….if you prefer to stay closer….well,…nothing is ethernal,,the pseudo-pegs are not even long-lasting…

]]> By: ThaiCrisis http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/about/#comment-8871 ThaiCrisis Sat, 06 Jun 2009 16:55:50 +0000 #comment-8871 Jerry : I have never said that the exchanges rates were not a real issue... My article was focused on the idea to consider exchanges rates as the only answer when confronted to falling exports. If you want to read more of me about THB-USD issue, you should consider <a href="http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2008/11/26/the-mystery-of-the-thb-value-and-the-bots-foreign-currency-reserves/" rel="nofollow">this </a>and <a href="http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2008/10/30/chart-currencies-thb-is-tied-to-the-usd/" rel="nofollow">that</a>. I have constantly talked about "manipulation" regarding the THB, with the BOT, and the "peg" to the USD. Jerry : I have never said that the exchanges rates were not a real issue… My article was focused on the idea to consider exchanges rates as the only answer when confronted to falling exports.

If you want to read more of me about THB-USD issue, you should consider this and that.

I have constantly talked about “manipulation” regarding the THB, with the BOT, and the “peg” to the USD.

]]> By: Jerry http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/about/#comment-8868 Jerry Sat, 06 Jun 2009 06:29:07 +0000 #comment-8868 The THB should be at about 40-42 for 1 USD, if you see the historical exchange rates of the past 10 years and you add inflation and you cross with the other asian countries, the THB current value is the biggest scam of financial history. Thailand has one of the worst economies in the area, and it has NEVER been one of the best when asian tigers were booming, its politics is amongst the world's most unstable, the civil war in the south is endless and without any solution, the country risk is one the highest, the interest rates one of the lowest, the laws for foreigner investments one of the harshest, nevertheless THB is one of the strongest currencies in the world. Its value is completely artificial and it has nothing to do with the country reality. It is just a game for the interest of big fish who has billions of dollars of black money invested here. Just take all staple basic items and compare their cost with any country in the similar ranking of Thailand GDP and HDI:Thailand is by far the most expensive country, and it is double as expensive of countries which HDI rankings are 20-30 positions higher. At the long term this imbalances will need to close, as when the THB in the late 1990s was at about 45THB it was too undervalued with staple basic items costs lower than those of Bolivia for example. Today Thailand staple in USD are more expensive that ones of Chile,Argentina,Uruguay and Costa Rica for example, 10 years ago they were at 40% to 60% of their prices. If you think that s nothing to do with exchange rate, you are wrong. It is not related in the short term, but in the long term this value of the THB is unsustainable. Import is going to increase, while exports will follow its total crash (coz 96% of the investors who are avoiding buying in Thailand give THB strenght as main reason for that): trade balance is going to close, while public debt will balloon. As soon as neighbour countries export will start to recover, the Thai lack of competivness will result more evident and a decision about the exchange rate will need to be taken. The THB should be at about 40-42 for 1 USD, if you see the historical exchange rates of the past 10 years and you add inflation and you cross with the other asian countries, the THB current value is the biggest scam of financial history.
Thailand has one of the worst economies in the area, and it has NEVER been one of the best when asian tigers were booming, its politics is amongst the world’s most unstable, the civil war in the south is endless and without any solution, the country risk is one the highest, the interest rates one of the lowest, the laws for foreigner investments one of the harshest, nevertheless THB is one of the strongest currencies in the world.
Its value is completely artificial and it has nothing to do with the country reality.
It is just a game for the interest of big fish who has billions of dollars of black money invested here.
Just take all staple basic items and compare their cost with any country in the similar ranking of Thailand GDP and HDI:Thailand is by far the most expensive country, and it is double as expensive of countries which HDI rankings are 20-30 positions higher.
At the long term this imbalances will need to close, as when the THB in the late 1990s was at about 45THB it was too undervalued with staple basic items costs lower than those of Bolivia for example.
Today Thailand staple in USD are more expensive that ones of Chile,Argentina,Uruguay and Costa Rica for example, 10 years ago they were at 40% to 60% of their prices.
If you think that s nothing to do with exchange rate, you are wrong. It is not related in the short term, but in the long term this value of the THB is unsustainable.
Import is going to increase, while exports will follow its total crash (coz 96% of the investors who are avoiding buying in Thailand give THB strenght as main reason for that): trade balance is going to close, while public debt will balloon.
As soon as neighbour countries export will start to recover, the Thai lack of competivness will result more evident and a decision about the exchange rate will need to be taken.

]]> By: commons http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/about/#comment-8205 commons Tue, 14 Apr 2009 15:42:40 +0000 #comment-8205 blogs evolve & change, as everything else does. maybe u noticed urself; u've attracted "like minded" souls... --- & those, with a slightly different opinion... disappeared. bloggers rarely realize that they're just symptoms of time. it was nice, yes, thx, indeed :-) blogs evolve

& change, as everything else does.

maybe u noticed urself; u’ve attracted “like minded” souls… — & those, with a slightly different opinion… disappeared.

bloggers rarely realize that they’re just symptoms of time.

it was nice, yes, thx, indeed :-)

]]> By: ThaiCrisis http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/about/#comment-7421 ThaiCrisis Thu, 26 Mar 2009 07:12:04 +0000 #comment-7421 No I'm not a teacher. But in a previous life, I was indeed a journalist. No I’m not a teacher. But in a previous life, I was indeed a journalist.

]]> By: James http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/about/#comment-7419 James Thu, 26 Mar 2009 02:56:39 +0000 #comment-7419 Do you teach in Thailand? I feel as though you should be a teacher, or journalist, or political adviser! If you are none of these, are you considering any of them? Do you teach in Thailand? I feel as though you should be a teacher, or journalist, or political adviser! If you are none of these, are you considering any of them?

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