Thailand Crisis

PPP wins. But fails short of a majority. Democrats are following. Like always. And small parties are back to where they belong : fiction.

Here is a quick summary of the general elections.

A few comments :

-exactly like many people predicted : the general elections solved basically nothing. The country remains deeply divided.

-thanks to a twisted Constitution and electorals laws, it’s back to the future with an institutionalized instability. PPP will probably form a government, but the road will be very bumpy. The military will watch carefully each of the new government’s steps.

-One Coup d’Etat and 15 months of Junta… for that ? To see Thaksin coming back? What a huge lost of face for the generals in their tight and shiny uniform. It’s a disgrace.

-The Junta and its leader Sonthi are in a corner : they can’t launch a second coup. They are caught in their own rethorical trap.
They promised free and fair elections to “restore democracy”… well thai people listened to them ! We are back TO SQUARE ONE.

-The responsability of the Junta is huge : during their 15 months of governement, they did… nothing. I mean nothing new. Nothing real for the people. Instead, they followed a very conservative agenda and pursued some stupid and childish obsessions. I won’t go into details : just read mypast posts…

Even if I never had a lot of illusions, I feel today bitter.

The country is facing obviously a dark future.

And unfortunatly, if I may say, this website ThaiCrisis is likely to continue… for a long time.

Anyway. It’s time now for a few hollidays. I’ll be back to work on january 2.

“The Office of Narcotics Control Board yesterday disclosed that some 1,400 people were killed and labelled as drug suspects though they had no link to drugs.

“The government’s drug policy was unclear. Operation staff hence did everything to achieve the goal of reducing the number of drug traffickers,” the representative said.

“The death toll was highest in February when the policy was first implemented. The number of deaths came down in the next two months.

“The fact-finding panel worked under the government-appointed committee, which was tasked with analysing the Thaksin Shinawatra-led government’s drug policy and its implementation that destroyed some people’s lives, property and reputation.” (Nation)

In 2003, Prime Minister Thaksin launched the “war on drugs”.

In a few months, 2 500 people (minimum) were killed !

At that time, the police said that drugs dealers were killing each other.

Almost five years after, and one coup after, the government is telling us that 1 400 killed were innocent, with no link whatsoever with drugs.

So ? Nobody seems to care about this news. And you know why ? Because, it’s coming from a totally discredited regime : the Junta.

They could use this scandal as political tool to nail Thaksin.

If they were serious :
-this inquiry should have been launched the day after the Coup. This amazing scandal should have been the top priority of the new government.

-it shows that the police lied. The 1 400 victims were killed by who ? Can we believe that suddendly thai people started to shoot each other, just like that ?

-If the police has lied, then why ?

At this point, no one has been charged…

That’s the drama. We have had a mass murder case, five years ago in this country which is not located in Africa, and even when the authorities aknowledge eventually and officially that something looks strange at the least… nobody is listening anymore.

Because the Junta is totally illegitimate and has lost the little credibility they had after the Coup.

It could be 2 000 innocents. Or maybe less. Maybe Thaksin has nothing to do with it. Or maybe he’s responsible.

We do not know. And won’t know.

That’s the drama.

The only thing we do know : 2 500 people were murdered in a few months. In 2003. In Thailand.

A must-read piece published by Asia Times Online, that covers the probable outcome of the elections, the CNS’s actions toward foreign investors and the problem of the King’s succession.

This article was written by one of their editors, Shawn W Crispin , and part of a presentation made tuesday to a group of foreign investors in Bangkok.

Nothing to add. It’s just brillant.

Here are 3 excerpts. Click here to read the whole article. Continue reading ‘Press : “Democrat and Motherland parties will form a new coalition gvt… that will last 2 years”’

There has been an important event -but a quiet one- this week : The Cabinet approved on june 19 a revision of the Internal Security Act.
“Surayud [Prime Minister] explained the revisions empowered the Internal Security Operations Command (Isoc) to maintain peace and national safety.

“The bill is aimed at enabling Isoc to more efficiently handle acts of sabotage, transnational crime and propaganda.

“The purpose of is to achieve a better legal mechanism than the imposition of states of emergency. These are harsh measures to be used only during wars. Besides, this law is outdated; it was enacted in 1944,” Surayud said.

“Under the bill, Isoc’s chief, as a member of the national committee, would have the right to direct state-run security agencies if the country comes under threat from terrorism, an act of sabotage or other forms of violence.

In addition, he would be empowered to ban people from leaving their homes, from using vehicles and roads, and from assembling in public places. He could also appoint security agents and assign them to bring suspects into custody, conduct searches and seize assets and documents believed to be linked to offences against national security. “

Without a court order !
Continue reading ‘The Junta designs its own security tool… for after’

When he was Prime Minister, Thaksin decided to heavily subsidize the gasoline market.

The idea was to offer a “cushion” to the thai voters/drivers, as soon as 2004, when the price of oil started to surge on the world market . It continued in 2005, for an obvious -political- reason : the general elections…

That was part of the Thaksinomics.

This policy leaded to a debt of 100 billions THB (State Oil Fund). But the thai drivers were happy… Now they have to pay back. There is a premium on every liter at the pump, to payback the fund.

This shows the weakness of the Kingdom related to energy and especially gasoline.

Any further hike of oil prices on the world market could lead to a recession. Thais thought, for too long, that gasoline was granted. The party is over.

Right now a liter cost 29 to 30 THB. 2 years ago it was less than 20 THB.

The point to understand is on the chart 2. An individual in a european country pays already much more for his gasoline (because of heavy taxes). But he can cope with further hikes, in regard of his income.

On the contrary, thais are… naked. Any further hike would be a full blow, related to the average income. Meanwhile, the thai authorities would have no means to subsidize gasoline.

Therefore, the situation is much more dangerous for Thais than for Europeans.

It’s just a matter of time before we will see the streets and the highways of Bangkok… cleared of traffic ! Mad Max Scenarii ? Yes. But a likely one.

Gasoline Prices ($/gal)
Prices of a short gallon of gasoline in US$ around the World. Source: AA Motoring Trust via USAToday and Wikipedia. Click to enlarge.

Prices of gasoline as percentage of daily GDP
Cost of a short gallon of gasoline as percentage of daily GDP. Click to enlarge.

Some other graphics (from Bangkok Post, Energy : Reform in the pipeline)

http://bangkokpost.net/yearend2006/page31.html

The oil dependance

Price structure comparison and Prices since 2003 (in THB)

” Who gets the kingdom’s sceptre when Bhumibol leaves the stage?“, asked Paul Handley in his article What the Thai coup was really about (Asia Sentinel, 6 november 2006).

A that time, people were following the finger of the propaganda.

Paul Handley, him, went directly to the point, the core of the issue.

Continue reading ‘What the September Coup was really about’