The 122 billions USD question : should Thailand use its foreign currency reserves ?

Since a few weeks, we hear calls for the BOT to use its foreign currency reserves, in order to boost the domestic economy. People don’t understand why the government should borrow billions of USD… when the BOT has a total of 122 billions in “reserves” (+ 6 in foward positions).

This discussion is not new actually. It started with the Samak government, last year.

First, if you don’t know what are the Bank Of Thailand reserves, read the official definition and my article.

(Here is an update of the chart, source BOT)

Let’s start with the official opinion of the BOT : it’s an absolute no-no. And this is not new. Here are some interesting quotes from Tarisa (the BOT governor), published last week.

Recently, Dr Narongchai Arkasanee, a well-known economist, and other academics, called on the central bank to use US$200 million (Bt6.82 billion) to $300 million of its international reserves of $120 billion to help stimulate the sagging economy as the government is cash-strapped.

Tarisa vigorously defended the central bank’s international reserves management, saying that in economic theory it is not an appropriate policy to use international reserves to prop up the economy.

“We have already talked it out with the prime minister and the finance minister that using international reserves to stimulate the economy is not a good option.

Apart from the US dollar, there are other currencies in the reserves. If we sell the dollar from the reserves, the value of the baht will jump, which would complicate the problems. And if the Bank of Thailand were to push out the baht by converting the US dollar in its own account, this would also amount to printing money,” Tarisa said.

“No country in the world is spending money from its international reserves directly. If we were to use the reserves to buy up some oil reserves, then this matter can be put to rest because it would not affect the domestic economy.” (Nation)

Not an appropriate policy ? That’s a very interesting wording. But she’s right : very few countries are tapping into their reserves…

So why it wouldn’t be appropriate ? Let’s explore a few possible reasons.

Exchange rate
For a country like Thailand, with a growth driven mainly by exports, the issue of the exchange rate USD-THB (the other currencies are totally irrelevant as I showed in this article) is the core issue.

At 34 THB for 1 USD, exporters, businesses are already complaining. They all want a weak THB, to (artificially) boost their income (it’s the “beggar thy neighbor” policy, read my article here)

Selling USD, and converting them into THB, would lower the value of USD relative to THB (offer and demand). And then a higher THB would make like difficult for thai exporters.

Inflation
Inflation could be another concern. All this cash, would be converted in THB, and then would flow the domestic economy. If liquidities are already at high levels, then it could produce an inflation of prices.

The honey pot syndrome
Tarisa is probably shy. But I see a third factor : thai politicians.

Who can trust thai politicians ? Nobody of course. And Tarisa knows that very well… She’s a member of the state apparatus. To give to the politicians the keys of the coffer would be in a way suicidal. This mountain of money could have very negative effect on their sanity… And their own bank accounts

It would be like giving the keys of the fridge to a pack of hungry wolfes…

So maybe the BOT wants to keep an adamant position against this idea, to prevent any breach. To accept to give even a few hundred of millions of USD could create a dangerous situation.

Psychology
As Tarisa says, tapping into foreign currency reserves is not a conventional policy. Central bankers are naturally reluctant to such an idea, because it doesn’t fit with their text books.

Especially in Thailand, where weight of “traditions” and lack of creativity are a heavy burden. However, we should note that the FED with Bernanke was not afraid to take “unconventional” decisions (very unconventional…).

Overall, those are the 4 reasons that could explain the BOT’s refusal.

But I think Tarisa is not telling us everything.

I would like to add a fifth reason, a fifth factor : the fear factor.

The fear factor, the conspiracy of the idiots or the MAD policy
There is a very fragile equilibrium right now in the world, about the USD. We all know that the US is doomed, but nobody who could have an influence over the USD want to take any action that could accelerate the move.

Yes, I’m speaking about central banks… who continue to buy (like there is no tomorrow) US Treasuries (my article here)… therefore USD.

If one central bank starts to getting out of the USD… even on a small scale, it could have huge consequences… and put the equilibrium in serious danger.

I’m not speaking about a conspiracy (albeit…) … but rather a “converging and common interest” between most of the central banks around the world… like a non written agreement if you prefer…

During the Cold War, there was the MAD concept : Mutually Assured Destruction… It’s exactly the same now with the USD…

So what to think ?
As for my own opinion… Should Thailand use its foreign currency reserves ?

I would definitely answer yes. At 122 billions USD and counting, the reserves are just too high (regarding conventional theory, and Tarisa should start to worry about the way she will justify an ever growing reserves…).

A fraction of this money could definitely be used to boost an investment program. A real one.

Thailand needs heavy infrastructures. And those wouldn’t be luxury (like to build a new stadium… interest = zero as far as economy is concerned)… but could really fuel future growth.

And the sector we are looking at is obvious : transportations.

But… of course once you have set up a principle, then politics catch you back.

It would be utterly unimaginable to give a large amount of money to the current thai government… I mean can you imagine a guy like Newin, whose gang controls the Transport Ministry, and such money ? It would be obscene.

That’s one of the main burden of the country : the dirty “politicians” (included bureaucrats and military).

Chart, foreign currency reserves : BOT stockpiles USD… like other BRIC countries

Et voila ! The “beggar thy neighbor” virus strikes again !

The BRICs are buying dollars at the fastest pace since before credit markets froze in September, protecting exports even as leaders of the biggest emerging markets consider alternatives to the U.S. currency.

Brazil, Russia, India and China increased foreign reserves by more than $60 billion in May to limit currency gains as the first global recession since World War II restricted exports, data compiled by central banks and strategists show. [...]

The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona, lost 6.4 percent last month, the biggest decline since March 1985. [...]

“What we are seeing is a public expression of discontent over the dollar, yet nobody knows what needs to be done specifically,” said Elina Ribakova, the chief economist in Moscow for Citigroup Inc. [...]

Federal Reserve holdings of Treasuries on behalf of central banks and institutions rose by $68.8 billion, or 3.3 percent, in May, the third most on record, Bloomberg data show. About 51 percent of the $6.36 trillion in marketable Treasuries are held outside America, up from 35 percent in 2000. China is the biggest foreign owner of Treasuries, increasing its holdings to $768 billion as of March from $60 billion in 2000. (Bloomberg)

And what about Thailand ? Well, it’s too much to ask the Bank Of Thailand to show any sense of creativity or originality… The BOT is happy to follow like a good dog (waving its tail)…

Look at the chart…

[Source Bank Of Thailand]

End of may, we almost reached the all-times record (april 2008). Foreign currency + forward positions (if you want to know what are forward positions, read my previous article) increased to a total of 127,76 billions USD !

The brain of those people are wired in a certain way… They are unable to change their behavior when confronted to totally new circumstances. They all wish a weaker THB in order to “save thai exports” (read my article).

Always the same short sighted view and analysis.

Look at the same chart, with the exchange rates USD-THB.

But if you think about it, the situation is even worse : those countries are buying USD… because they are buying… US debts !

The object they are buying, and the medium they are using to buy, are both doomed. It’s a lose-lose game.

Do they have choice ? Probably not.

But the gap between reality and statements is widening. They are talking about “discontent” with the US Dollar, but they continue to stockpile… USD. Welcome to the Rabbit Hole.

But Thailand should be careful… It can’t play this game for too long. Thailand is not China, nor Japan… The speculators are going to smell the blood… It’s like if the BOT was crying : “come to daddy”.

Meanwhile… thai politicians are looking -with envy- at the BOT’s reserves likes the wolf of Tex Avery… A mountain of money… More they could ever dream of… And, on a more practical level, the coffers are empty and the government is totally broke… so…

More on that later. Stay tuned.

Another perfect non-event : Bank Of Thailand cuts interest rates at 1,25

Sorry to repeat myself. But yes, it’s another perfect non-event.

The Monetary Policy Committee [BOT] yesterday expressed grave concern over political instability along with the prolonged global recession, which could drag the economy down deeply.

The MPC, as widely expected, cut its policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 1.25 per cent, the lowest level since July 2004. (Nation)

Why non-event ? Because the Bank Of Thailand is inaudible. They just have followed all the other Central banks around the world, and an absurd keynesian policy, to “figth the crisis”… free money. Toilet paper.

And ? What happened ? NIL, NADA, no result. The crisis is still there, more devastating than ever, gaining strenght like a hurricane, day after day.

Yes I know, CNCB told you last week (after the G20) that it was over, that Wall Street was celebrating. Bullshit. It’s a nightmare. The macro and micro economic statistics are horrible, USA, Europe, Asia, you name it.

So I repeat my question : And ? What’s next ? We are virtually at zero, the Bank of Thailand can’t cut further down obviously.

So ?

To summarize :

-Zero interest rates, free toilet paper money doesn’t matter. We don’t have a liquidity problem. But a solvency problem.

-in the middle of a full blown recession, there is no demand. No demand for free money. To invest. Of course many clowns need to borrow free money, to repay other… debts… But recovery can’t be based on such scheme. The party is over.

-what businesses are going to invest today, increase capacities, seeking loans ? Those that are seeking loans… are the ones that are dying : cash flow problems, less demand. It’s over. Bye, bye. Would you lend money to such businesses (or individuals) ? Even if the government tells you to ? Of course not.

-the banks are cautious : they don’t want to lend more. They know very well that the other word that comes with “recession” is “bankruptcy”. So why would they lend money to businesses that will go bankrupt soon ? To please Abhisit ? To please the clowns ? Ah ah ah.

-the banks are like everybody else : they want to save their margins : therefore they are not going to cut their rates… However, they will cut the deposit rates ! Too bad for… the savings of people. Too bad for… consumption.

-so the BOT’s decision is just a small gift… to the banks and a few business friends (who will be able to refinance their debts).

Here is the proof.

Voila. Everything is simple.

Last point, the rant like the cherry on top of the cake. Ready ? Be focused, it’s going to be quick.

The interest rate cut would help stimulate the export sector, central bank assistant governor Duangmanee Vongpradhip said on Wednesday. (Bangkok Post)

I remind you that this… individual… working apparently at the Bank Of Thailand… is paid. A salary.

What’s the link between a bicycle and a cabbage ? None. It’s the same here. The Assistant governor has just exploded the lunacy barrier, like a F16 would break the sound barrier.

Unless… unless… this individual made a big mistake… and in public drew a line with… the exchange rate issue ! Surprise !

In theory zero interest rates would weaken the local currency (money would go somewhere else)… But… of course it’s the same shit everywhere… So the theory doesn’t apply. Too bad.

Many clowns (politicians but also, and it’s worrying, business owners) are calling for a weak THB policy… in order to “stimulate exports”. The famous “beggar thy neighbor” strategy.

Totally taboo… But they are all thinking about it.

As I wrote… it’s a very powerful temptation.

Anyway… Back to Tarisa (BOT governor) and the question : what’s next ?

Now that interest rates are virtually at zero, what are you going to do ?

Quantitative easing ?

Game over.

Thailand continues to buy… US debts

Today folks… let’s have a look on the US Treasury securities, who are the major foreign holders, and how much Thailand bought…

First, the definition :

United States Treasury security is a government debt issued by the United States Department of the Treasury through the Bureau of the Public Debt.

Treasury securities are the debt financing instruments of the United States Federal government, and they are often referred to simply as Treasuries. There are four types of marketable treasury securities: Treasury bills, Treasury notes, Treasury bonds, and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS).

Let’s see the list of the major foreign holders of US Treasury securities (in billions of dollars), holdings at end of period (source US Treasury).

Astonishing, huh ? The total is 3072 billions USD (january 2009)… China and Japan own almost half of it (1374 billions)… !

And Thailand ? 37,2 billions. More than India, South Korea and France…

Now let’s look at the evolution : year on year (compared to january 2008) and month on month (compared to december 2008).

A whooping +28 % for Thailand in one year… And compared to december 2008, Thailand is number 1 (+14 %) !

Congratulations…

So the question is : who is buying ? Many financial institutions can buy bonds for instance. My bet : the Bank of Thailand is responsible for the bulk of the increase.

There is some correlation with the figures of the foreign currency reserves.

And another question : is it a good move ?

I’ve got a strong opinion about it : no it’s not good. It’s even really stupid. The USD is a ticking bomb… the US debt is a ticking bomb… So to buy US debts today is like to sit on 2 ticking bombs…

It’s a classic move, picked from the text books (“fly to security” blabla) but it’s so overdone…

And to buy US debts (in USD) has one direct effect : exchange rates. The Bank Of Thailand apparently continues to buy USD, against THB… They are supporting the US dollar…

When exports are devastated, such a move could cause serious political backslash…

Many central banks are screwed : if they reduce their holdings, it will affect the USD and could create a snowball effect… The USD could fall, implode, crash.

What China can do with their 739 billions of US Treasury securities ? They are really screwed. Even if they stop buying, it could have very negative consequences.

Last point : what means “Carib Bnkng Ctrs” ? Caribean Banking Centers… AKA off shore paradises for grey money and grey finances…

What ! ? They “own” 176 billions USD ? How come ? I bet you didn’t know that…

Those are the official figures given by the US Treasury…

Welcome to the world of corruption… Those tiny islands are used… yes by drugs and arms dealers… but that’s not the point.

They are used by ALL THE MAJOR world banks, US, european… you name it… And some of them have very close ties with the US authorities…

It means, the US could use those “black boxes” to buy… their own debt for instance ? To intervene on the markets, behind a false nose ?

Nah, that would be a crazy idea.

Last point : don’t forget to pay in due time your taxes. We are the useful idiots. They need us. And our money.

Be a good citizen, pay your taxes, vote from time to time (for the people they choose, like Obama), watch TV, believe what they tell you, and please… shut the fuck up.

And in Thailand, they ask you something more : don’t forget to smile.

Chart, banks : deposits minus credits… something is happening

I give you a new chart. I call it the X Chart, because, well… it’s the kind that leads to several interpretations.

But, the current crisis shreds some weird light on it.

The BOT publishes per month the total amounts (outstanding) of deposits and credits at commercial banks, per area.

I use those data to follow the evolution of credits and deposits (look charts here).

Let’s have fun and look at the evolution of the total deposits minus the total credits, per month… For the whole country, and then between Bangkok and upcountry.

The time scale is rather long (since january 2005), enough to detect trends.

We can see clearly that something happened : since june 2008, the balance is in the red.

With the split by area, we see that upcountry is very reasonable… deposits are always superior to the total amount of credit… On the other hand, Bangkok is “sucking” the credit breast.

We can make several comments :
-we don’t know what is the cause : is the balance going down because people and businesses decrease their deposits ? Or because they increase their credits ?

-what about the people ? I wrote “reasonable” for the folks upcountry. But is it a fact ? Here too, we can see the bottle half empty of half full. They might be reluctant to take loans… Or they always save a lot (that would be the reasonable scenario). Or maybe they are willing to take more debts… but the banks are much more “cautious” (compared to Bangkok for instance) and deny many loans applications, etc.

-and is it good, or bad ? People and businesses in Bangkok might be investing more (lower deposits, higher credits). That would be good. Or maybe they are a just fanatic shoppers… and just spend money buying stuff cash and with credit (good for consumption, but not very reasonable), etc.

-and what about the date. Why this “event” took place in june 2008 ?

We need another chart to see through.

Voila. We have our rational explanation : the long term trend (deposits always superior to credits) went in reverse mode in june 2008.

But still, it doesn’t help us to understand what are the causes. The point is : both deposits and credits continue to increase, but in an inversed order.

It’s rather strange.

I guess it’s difficult to gives an interpretation because like for many other issues, Thailand is not one. It’s difficult to compare behaviors and other economic data between Bangkok and the poor areas up country for instance… Those huge differences lead to comparisons that look weird.

In any case, we can say that the situation is less healthy for the banks than before.

Last point to help you to put things in perspectives :

-individuals have much higher deposits than businesses (4 460 billions versus 1 410 billions)
-and for credits, it’s the opposite (3 846 billions credits for businesses versus 2 170 billions for individuals)

My interpretation : this chart is a reflection of the crisis.

-individuals are scared, because of the crisis, they are saving much more (6% y-o-y in november, 8 % in december… before it was +1 or 2%, the sudden change is obvious)

-businesses are scared and affected by the crisis… they have cash flow problems… they reduce their deposits… and increase credits.

That’s not a good omen for the whole economy…

(Source Bank Of Thailand, table FI_CB_011_S2)

Chart, commercial banks : total credit and type of debtors… first red lights ?

(Source Bank Of Thailand, table FI_CB_015_S3).

Time to update the charts about total credit and type of debtors, at commercial banks.

The total amount (outstanding) of credit was 7 465 billions THB in january, lower than december (7 549 billions, 84 billions less). Year on year (compared to january 2008) we still have a very strong growth : 18 % !

(Credit = Overdraft + Loans + Bills)

Now a view (still in % year on year) per type of debtors.

Now a view, per amount and type of debtors.

The push in january 2008 (after the elections, with the government of Samak) is obvious.

There is still no credit crunch in Thailand… The growth of credit remains strong, if we compare with last year.

It will change of course. It has to change…

I note one thing that could be a bad sign : in january, total credit for business went down 50 billions THB, compared to the previous month… We have to go back to january 2007 (after the Coup) to find a – 49 billions monthly difference.

Exactly the same for credit to individuals : minus 11,6 billions in january… the last negative difference was in january 2007.

My feeling : january 2009 could be the official beginning of the infection of the thai credit system (on the commercial banks side) by the recession virus.

My point : since january, the situation of the economy has worsened. It’s a fact (less exports, fall of production, unemployment on the rise, less consumption)… how in those conditions the banks could (or would be willing to) lend more ?

The same principle applies everywhere in the world : banks were reckless by giving cheap money before… now the bozos at the government (and on the streets) complain that the banks are too cautious !

They don’t understand that it’s meaningless to give credit during a full blown recession. The risks are just too high. Credit to a company to build new factory ? To make what and to sell to who ? Credit to someone who is unemployed to build a new house ?

So what do we have left ? Credit to please the clowns, the politicians. To save jobs at zombie companies during a certain period of time. But for how long and for what results ?

Chart, credit cards, update january : more plastic, less money

Alarm. For the second time in 3 months… the growth year on year of spendings with credit cards is in negative territory…

In january, spendings went down 9,45 %, compared to january 2008 (75,31 billions THB, versus 83,17 billions).

As for the total number of credit cards… nothing changed : more. Plastic is still fantastic are thinking the thai consumers.

Total number of cards in january : 13 023 697 . That’s a growth of 8,54 % year on year. 36 624 new cards were issued in january, compared to december.

I think this trend will continue in the coming months. Banks will continue to issue new cards… to get fees… and consumers will of course continue to take them… but will spend less.

(Source Bank Of Thailand, table FI_CB_080_S2)

Chart, BOT’s reserves : forward positions are going down, the coal mine canary makes some noise

I wrote last december :

The forward positions play the role of the coal mine canary.

What are forward positions ?

Forward positions = Bank of Thailand’s forward obligations to buy (long) or sell (short) foreign currency against Thai Baht (official definition)

With a maturity up to 1 year (read here).

For that matter, they are like a “peek” at how the reserves will behave in the future.

The forward positions are going down non stop since march 2008… Time for an update.

Furthermore something happened during the week of february 20… For the first time, the total foreign currency reserves + forward positions didn’t grow anymore on a year-on-year basis.

In other words, the growth has turned negative (-1,17 % on the week of february 20, and then -5,67 % on the week of february 27).

Now, let’s have a look on the amount of foreign currency reserves and the forwards positions (in billions USD).

The move is clear : forward positions are getting closer to zero… If we assume that forward positions are mainly in USD, and that the pace will continue, then we can say :

-this technical support for USD against THB (the Bank Of Thailand buying USD) is going to vanish in the coming weeks… it could affect the exchange rate… the THB could go up against USD.

But again, we have several factors, pushing in different directions, at work here. It’s complicated, thank you to read my previous article, particularly the listing of “traps” to avoid.

In december I spoke about the “Asian bias” (to let asian currencies going down versus USD, to support exports).

I wrote :

I think the BOT will -at one point- follow the same path. Therefore, I think the THB will go down versus USD.

Until now, I was right. USD touched 36 THB.

To summarize my position :

-follow closely the evolution of the forward positions (it’s a factor within the foreign currency reserves, and foreign currency reserves are a factor for the exchange rate USD-THB).

I still believe that the asian bias will increase… Exports are devastated by the global crisis (read here, a quarter wiped off in february for Thailand)… and this trend can’t be changed in the short and medium term.

The political and social pressures are going to mount… for some form of “competitive devaluation”.*

UPDATE MARCH 14
The decline in international reserves resulted from the rapid weakening of the baht to 36.50 to the US dollar, which made it necessary for the central bank to intervene to contain the currency volatility. (TNA)

Right now… the BOT is selling USD in order to weaken the USD versus THB, and therefore to curb the depreciation of the THB. Exporters are going to be unhappy…

The Bank Of Thailand is obsessed (and they are right) with “volatility“. Indeed, to work with a currency that moves too fast (up or down) is a real nightmare for businesses.

Chart : strong increase… of credit card spendings in december

At last ! At last, there is something going up in Thailand : credit card spendings.

I’m not sure though… it’s a very good news.

Let’s review the details.

Total number of credit cards (thai banks + foreign banks branches + non banks) grew 8,2 % in december 2008, compared to december 2007.

But what is really weird… it’s the unprecedented increase of… total spendings !

The total credit cards spendings reached a new record at 86,5 billions THB, that’s an increase of 8,5 % year-on-year (79,75 billions in december 2007), but a whooping 20,5 % increase compared to the previous month (71,76 billions in november).

Is it like a catch-up effect, after a weak november ?

We can’t discard a seasonal effect, end of the year, christmas, bonus paid… bla bla… the amount spent in december is always strong.

But those figures do not match with… consumption and other stats we have. For instance VAT collection (-6,91 % in december, read my article here).

You start to see where I want to go… ? If the consumption is decreasing… but credit card spendings are increasing… it means people pay less with cash… and more with credit ! They rely more on short term credit… Why ? Because plastic is fantastic ?

Maybe. Or maybe because… they don’t have cash.

Anyway, it’s going to be interesting to follow closely the data for january… Rendez-vous march 10.

(Source Bank Of Thailand, table FI_CB_080_S2)

Drama of age and incompetence : Thai central bank says the crisis is less severe than 1997

After, “the crisis is not that bad because it didn’t start in Thailand“… After “first quarter is better than Q4“… After “the decrease of exports is a surprise“… Tarisa, the alleged governor of the Bank Of Thailand, comes back on stage for her new cheap PR show.

But this time, she’s not afraid to speak to international media… Bloomberg.

Thailand’s central bank said the nation’s economy will be able to better withstand the global credit crisis than in 1997 because of the resilience of local companies and banks.

“Since the last crisis, we have put in a lot of effort and energy to strengthen our system,” Bank of Thailand Governor Tarisa Watanagase, 59, said in an interview yesterday in Bangkok. “Our capability to withstand the storm is very much different than in 1997. Banks don’t have solvency or liquidity problems.” [...]

… Yet… Thai banks don’t have solvency or liquidity problems yet. Who Tarisa tries to fool with such cheap rethorical move ?

Tarisa should explain us what will happen to loans… owned by thai banks if many companies go bankrupt, confronted to a ever deepening global crisis ? What would happen to this great “capability to withstand the storm” ?

To be so narrow minded, just in order to save face and to boost the so called confidence… is really astonishing.

“This is the crisis that happened elsewhere and we don’t have a lot of control over it,” Tarisa said. “The effect will come through the trade channel. Now, we have to pin our hopes on domestic investment and consumption.”

Here, she’s touched by grace ! She aknowledges that exports… ARE DEAD… and will break GDP growth… But, hop hop, the PR is coming back right away… she found her Magic Stick : “domestic investment and consumption” !

Tarisa becomes like Jesus walking on the water.

To study investment and private consumption by looking at GDP report (Q4, read here)… To see that the first one is dead like a dead cow, and the second one is flat at best… To understand that businesses won’t invest more tomorrow than they did yesterday… Is irrelevant, totally irrelevant.

Facts, analysis do not matter anymore… Here, we are in Laland, the land of the Magic Words.

Tarisa has spoken, and like a celestial shepherd, she shows to the masses the way to salvation : Hopes.

And when the governor of a central bank starts to use the word “hopes “… then you know what you have to do. Run. And run fast.

Poor woman. People in the future will laugh at her. And then she will disappear into History’s garbage can. In disgrace. Full of shame.

Bank Of Thailand and forecast : the right hand doesn’t understand the left hand

February 27
Mrs. Tarisa [Bank Of Thailand governor] views the Thai economy in the first quarter this year as being better than its performance in the last quarter of 2008, and states that she believes the economy will not be in recession because state spending and investment had begun to accelerate. (TNA)

February 28
Thailand’s economy in January continued to shrink with all economic indicators showing a continuing contraction, according to the Bank of Thailand (BoT). (TNA)

Talk about credibility…. Credibility is a word unknown to Miss Tarisa and all her followers : the clowns.

I would like to remind you that mid january, the BOT already said :

The gross domestic product (GDP) is very unlikely to shrink in 2009 since the economy in the first quarter began to have signs of recovery after various fiscal measures were taken. (read here).

Who said that ? The Deputy governor… A good pupil…

We have 3 kind of people there :
-the brainless
-the liar
-and brainless + liar

Please, could someone explain them that:

-January has been WORSE than december.
-february has been WORSE than january, if we look at all the indicators IN THE FREAKING WORLD.
-unless Jesus is coming back or Earth is visited by people from Jupiter, march will be AS BAD AS february (or maybe worse).

Exports in january ? Dead. Dead as dead meat. Investments ? Dead. Private consumption ? Down since january (VAT receipts are a proof, read here). Government expenses ? Not dead, but not enough to compensate the disaster in other GDP components. Read my report on GDP Q4.

So bad + very bad + very bad at most = NO FREAKING RECOVERY IN THE FIRST QUARTER

I repeat for Tarisa :

Bad + very bad + very bad at most = NO FREAKING RECOVERY IN THE FIRST QUARTER

For Christ’s sake ! Is she able to understand this ? !

After all, I think she can’t… She said that exports crash in Asia was… “a surprise “. Yes. Oui. Ja. One week ago, read here. You see. She’s hopeless.

I’m so fed up of this circus and those clowns. I’m losing my nerves.