From “everything is fine” to “we are in deep shit 1997 style”… in a snap of a finger.
But wait, there is more : the Boiler Room announces us the… date of the recovery !
Ladies and gentlemen, not 2009, not 2010… but 2011.
I feel like in a fish market.
Thailand’s property market cannot be expected to recover from the present slump until 2011, according to Aliwassa Pathnadabutr, managing director of international property agency CB Richard Ellis (Thailand).
She said the slump began in the final quarter of this year with demand in Thailand’s property market plummeting under the shadow of the global economic crisis.
“When we saw demand in the property market dropping, we suggested to our customers that they wait and see [what happens]. As a result our customers suspended investments of between Bt4 billion and Bt5 billion in the last quarter of this year,” Aliwassa said last week.
The company’s research shows that transactions have fallen in all property segments in the current quarter, some of them significantly, others slightly. This is a sign that the property market may fall by 10 to 20 per cent next year, the steepest tumฌble since the financial crisis in 1997, she said. (Nation)
That sounds great and quite reasonable.
Even more when we remember what the same company, CB Richard Elli, was saying exactly 2 months ago :
Thailand’s property market is well insulated from the global financial crisis as it is far less dependent on debt than most property markets, said real estate firm CB Richard Ellis Thailand.
I know, it’s tasty. I know, you love it, like I do.
I told them that this statement would be their curse. Like “our banking system is sound ” from Bush, Bernanke and Paulson last august…
And you can count on me : I will repeat it, over and over.
Anyway, let’s be fair. Only fools and stupid people are unable to change their mind. And CB Richard Ellis is certainly not stupid.
But, you know… it’s difficult to change. I mean really. Aliwassa did start on a good foot. But soon after, she… lost it.
“We believe that this recovery cycle will be faster than that after the 1997 financial crisis because global leaders such as the US, UK, Europe, Japan and China have launched measures to solve the problem. Meanwhile, Thailand’s property developers and finance firms are healthier, financially, than they were in 1997,” she said.
You see… It’s pathologic. The magic of the words, the force of the incantations, the power of the verb… But nothing substantial behind. Emptiness.
There is another expression to describe this devastating bias : wishful thinking.
See you in 2011…
Okay… Aliwassa is not paid to say “I don’t know”. But that would be refreshing.
“We don’t know. The crisis is so severe, so global, so pervasive, so… We have no clue. The historical points of reference don’t apply anymore. It’s impossible to foresee the future. Be patient. Stay on alert. Collect data. Take time to analyse all the differents views. And more importantly : stay humble.”
This is what I would like to hear from the Boiler Room.
[I wish you a happy Christmas. Time for a few days of rest. See you soon. Crisisfully Yours.]