Thailand Crisis

“Protests and coup rumours return. Thailand’s squabbling elites seem intent on ruining the country”, an article from The Economist.

I like very much the end.

After the 2006 coup the army and its allies in the bureaucracy ran the country dismally, and Thailand’s economy is now among the region’s slowest-growing. Even so, both sides in the conflict are talking up the chances of another coup—which would be the country’s 19th since the absolute monarchy came to an end in 1932.

Even if it does not go that far, prolonged political strife risks doing further economic damage. Instead of regaining its reputation as an admired, fast-developing tiger, Thailand risks becoming one of those perennially unstable, tragi-comic countries, such as the Philippines, which the outside world overlooks.

The “Philippinization” of the country has always been my worse case scenario.

We can’t deny that in 30 years, there has been a huge shift : in the 80’s Thailand was… almost alone in SEA… A brillant princess in the middle of a sleeping land surrounded by communists and weird countries…

Now, this decor is gone. The play has ended. Today, Thailand is just another developping countries in Asia, among many others…

Just after the vietnam war, Thailand had all the cards in its hand.

What have they done ?

Now, their insane political regime, their arrogance, their pathetic powerplays don’t fool anyone, anymore…

While they continue to live somewhere in the past, arguing each others… they didn’t notice that the countries around them have changed… The world has changed.

HALF of the world’s population enjoys fuel subsidies. This estimate, from Morgan Stanley, implies that almost a quarter of the world’s petrol is sold at less than the market price. The cheapest petrol is in Venezuela, at 5 cents per litre. That makes China’s pump price of 79 cents seem expensive, but even this is a bargain compared with $1.04 in the United States and $2.35 in Germany.

Interesting article from The Economist, to help put things in perspective.

To see my own chart of evolution of gasoline and diesel prices in Thailand, click here.

By the way, Malaysia (one of the biggest fuel subsidy in the world, costs 7 % of GDP) has just announced a 41 % increase of fuel price… And India… 10 % (Bloomberg)

UPDATE
And crude oil took 5 % in a few hours today… We are currently at 134 USD for WTI ! Sleep tight.
If it continues like that, what a terrible cisor effect for all… the subsidies…

Jonathan Head, the BBB correspondent accused of lese-majeste (read about this insane story here), wrote another good piece about the political stalemate in Thailand.

So Thailand is stuck in a stalemate again. There is widespread expectation that the outspoken Mr Samak will lose control of his coalition, and possibly his party.

The threat of dissolution worries many of his MPs, who may prefer a more accommodating approach to their political rivals in the hope of forestalling such an outcome.

No parties can afford the expense of another election. Instead Thailand is likely to end up with a caretaker prime minister, presiding over a weak, re-constituted coalition.

That might be exactly the result the traditionalists, those who supported the military coup, would like.

But it would offer no clear leadership to a country which has been without it ever since Thaksin Shinawatra’s fall from power.

Interview of Samak (the “Prime Minister” of Thailand, sorry I need to use quotation marks…) published in Times (may 5).

After the killing of monks in the streets of Yangoon, Samak said that Burma’s leaders were “good buddhists” (read here). Now, he says that they are “normal people“.

At least, he’s constant. Constant in ignominy.

The journalist asks him :
-”Are you Thaksin’s Prime Minister ?”
-”It is an insult to ask me that question”.

Read it, it’s a “grand moment” of journalism.

This article of the Guardian, about the first year of Thaksin as the owner of Manchester City football club, is a perfect allegory of his political life (as Prime Minister).

When he was elected the first time in 2001, hopes were high in Thailand and outside. He was different from the previous crooks (because he was rich already…). He was younger. And much smarter than the old politicians and generals in their tight uniform.

And then… he became megalomaniac. That’s stronger than him : his behaviour takes -always- the upper hand on his intellect. And then he starts to make mistakes. Big ones.

Fans who failed to question the Thai owner’s past are now shocked to see how authoritarian he can be.

hen Manchester City were about to be sold to Thaksin Shinawatra last summer the men in charge of City rejected any concerns about whether his really was the safest pair of hands for the self-styled true Manchester club. A cursory Google search could have told them of the long-standing allegations of human rights abuses, including the killing without trial of people suspected of drugs offences, while Thaksin was the prime minister of Thailand, and of other authoritarian aspects of his rule. (following)

I know the title is provocative.

But this is a quote. A quote from a very interesting article from Reuters… An article that shows what “racism” means in Asia (something normal and shared by… many countries). And the result of an appalling education system and a vicious propaganda machine…

Western people will be shocked. But again, these kind of feelings are common. Much more than you could imagine.

(thanks to AbsolutelyBangkok to have pointed out this article)

BANGKOK, May 14 (Reuters) - It takes more than a natural disaster to wipe out centuries of bad blood.

In Thailand, where school books and movies overflow with tales of atrocities and brutality by invading Burmese armies, the devastation wrought by Cyclone Nargis has left some people thinking Myanmar only got what it deserved.

[click here to continue reading]

Thailand is the first exporter of rice in the world… But unfortunatly, interesting articles about rice are not published by the thai press… but rather by the western medias.

Kamolsak Thongta was working at a garage in northern Thailand when rice prices began to soar. So he quit his job, found a plot of unused land and became a farmer.

“With the price like this, I don’t think this is a risky business,” said Kamolsak, 46. “Rice gives good return.”

That rush to profit from the global rice shortage may cause long-term pain for Thailand and world markets.

Farmers trying to cash in now are depleting water supplies set aside for the dry season, which may curtail yields by as much as 75 percent later this year, said Prasert Gosalvitra, head of the government’s rice department. More intensive farming also may make paddies less productive in the future, knocking Thailand from its spot as the world’s biggest rice exporter, he said.

“It is scary in the long term,” said Apichart Jongskul, secretary general of the national Office of Agricultural Economics. “There are impacts on natural resources like water and soil that should be taken into account.” (Bloomberg)

IN THAILAND’S most sensational crimes, the prime suspects are often the police. Among current cases are a group of border police accused of abducting innocent people and extorting money from them, and a huge car-theft ring thought to have been run by bent coppers.

The prime minister, Samak Sundaravej, this month sacked the national police chief, Sereepisut Taemeeyaves, for alleged corruption. Mr Sereepisut insists he is the victim of a conspiracy by crooked subordinates.

Earlier this month the justice minister visited Chalor Kerdthes, a former police general serving life in jail, belatedly seeking progress on the “blue diamond” affair of the early 1990s, which wrecked Thailand’s relations with Saudi Arabia.

After the priceless gem and other jewels were stolen from a Saudi royal palace by a Thai worker, three Saudi diplomats seeking their return were murdered in Bangkok. The Thai police supposedly solved the case but the jewels they sent back to Riyadh were fake.

Mr Chalor arranged the murders of the family of a gem dealer involved in the case. It is suspected he can dish the dirt on other former police chiefs.

Cases of police graft and abuse of power are legion. [...]

A good article published by The Economist. As usual.

Thai Political Beat Goes On
Never mind elections, the fate of Thaksin’s proxy party could be decided, yet again, by Thailand’s royalist judges and generals

Asia Sentinel publishes a very interesting analysis on the on going political struggle, and the risks of dissolution for the PPP and 2 other parties, members of the coalition.

The growing role and influence of the Privy Council (attached to the King, with 3 new nominations last week) and the role of the judges is also covered.

I totally agree with the views of the author (anonymous). It could have been me, but no, my english is clearly not that good.

The government’s lack of spending on healthcare is a scandal—but abusing intellectual property rights won’t help.

BANGKOK—This city is not exactly wealthy, but increasingly efficient public transportation, busy (if somewhat chaotic) roads, bustling traders, and very few beggars all give the impression that Bangkok is much richer than many nearby capitals in Southeast Asia. Thailand is indeed wealthier than its neighbors.

However, it spends less of its GDP on healthcare than any other government in the region, save for the backward military regime in Burma.

Thai health spending is also heading in the wrong direction: it is currently hovering around 3 percent of GDP, down from 3.5 percent a few years ago. (The American)

[my articles about the CL problem : here, here, and there]

A very interesting article published by BBC, with some… striking charts.

Asian countries have been struggling to cope as the cost of rice has reached record levels.

The price of the staple crop has risen by as much as 70% during the last year, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). (BBC)

[my own chart for thai exports, here)]