Bangkok’s governor : “Everybody worries about the king”

In a SPIEGEL interview, Sukhumbhand Paribatra, the governor of Bangkok and a cousin of the king, condemns former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and criticizes the Thai Army. He says he is deeply concerned about the state of Thailand and the future of the monarchy.

A few quotes :

SPIEGEL: At some point, the king will no longer be there. Will Thailand then slip into chaos when he dies? Are you afraid of that?

Sukhumbhand: Of course I am afraid. I was not afraid before. But now, after a few years of political polarization, I think that this political polarization will become even more violent.

SPIEGEL: The king is 81 now. Normally, on his birthday he reads a speech to the nation each year. But last year was the first time he didn’t read it himself. That might indicate that he is ill. Is there reason to worry and are you afraid?

Sukhumbhand: Everybody worries about the king. Even if he goes for a checkup, people panic. Yes, of course we are worried.

SPIEGEL: Is he seriously ill?

Sukhumbhand: Let me formulate it this way: He’s not doing as well as he was 10 years ago.

[...]
PIEGEL: You are a cousin of the king. So you know the royal court’s rules very well. How is the successor to the king actually selected?

Sukhumbhand: There are generally two possibilities. The king can pick his own a successor …

SPIEGEL: … which King Bhumibol Adulyadej has not done yet …

Sukhumbhand: As far as we know. If that hasn’t happened, then a successor must be found according to the palace law of 1926. But that is subject to approval by the parliament.

SPIEGEL: So his son, Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn, or one of his daughters would become the successor?

Sukhumbhand: No, the palace law doesn’t permit a female successor to the throne.

SPIEGEL: So the only choice would be Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn?

Sukhumbhand: That we know of, yes.

That’s the proof that not only westerners are thinking about the succession issue… However, I don’t understand when he says “the palace law doesn’t permit a female successor to the throne.“ I thought Princess Sirindhorn had the status of princess royal. She could take the throne.

If my thai readers could enlight us on this issue.

Her title in Thai is the female equivalent of the title held by her brother, Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn

“Once upon a time” : a short story to frighten the children and enlighten their parents

You should read “Planning a coup ? Here’s how”, an article from Philip Golingai. He’s a journalist working for a malaysian newspaper.

I like very much this piece. Having the head into thai politics almost on a daily basis, it’s actually quite difficult to keep the broad picture in mind.

We have such a weak and short memory… It’s our curse.

Short stories are a very good mean to refresh it and to put the common sense back into its boots.

From the “happy military coup” in september 2006 to the Frankenstein coup 2 weeks ago, it’s a striking summary of Thailand’s history.

At the end, you’ll feel the “invisible hand”.

You might even be able to touch it.

Press : “Asian trade in free fall as exports to West dry up”

Days pass… and the situation is worsening in Asia. The fantasy of “decoupling” seems long gone.

The Telegraph publishes a good article, from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.

A few quotes.

Flemming Nielsen, from Danske Bank, said exports from Korea and Taiwan both shrank by over 20pc last month. “The numbers are terrible. Intra-Asian trade is in free-fall. Taiwan’s exports to mainland China in November were down a whopping 42pc.”

Fan Gang, a top adviser in Beijing, said China’s exports would also show a decline when data is released this week. “Things are not good: industrial growth will be around 5pc and export growth will be negative,” he said. Economic expansion of 5pc would be a major shock and entail recession in the Chinese context.

Japan’s economy shrank 0.5pc in the third quarter and risks sliding back into deflation and perma-slump. Exports fell 7.7pc in October on crumbling demand for cars and machinery.

Earlier rescue plans have already pushed Japan’s national debt to 170pc of GDP, the world’s highest. Private savings have collapsed from 14pc of GDP in the early 1990s to 2pc today. Japan goes into this downturn without a cushion.

When the biggest customers (Europe, USA, Japan, China) are going down… to imagine that Thailand could be “insulated” is nothing but a sweet dream (read here and there).

A contraction… of GDP can’t be discarded anymore…

“It is likely that the economy will mark negative growth this quarter compared with the previous one, due to a host of negative factors”.  Bangkok Bank executive chairman Kosit Panpiemras. (Nation)

Press, monarchy : The Economist wants to “break the taboo”

In case you weren’t on planet Earth during the last 48 hours, here is an important update…

The Economist has published 2 articles about the thai monarchy.

The king and them
The untold story of the palace’s role behind the collapse of Thai democracy

and

A right royal mess
Thailand’s interminable political conflict has much to do with the taboo subject of its monarchy. That is why the taboo must be broken

It’s totally unprecedented. First because the Economist is not a lowly newspaper. It’s an important one. And then because the content is indeed very, highly critical.

Here are few quotes. But you really must read the whole text.

Even the most mild, reasoned criticism of the monarchy is forbidden, punishable by up to 15 years in jail. This has had a remarkable effect not just on Thais but on successive generations of Western diplomats, academics and journalists who, with few exceptions, have meekly censored themselves. [...]

Now president of the privy council, General Prem is also supposedly above politics. But this too is a myth: he is widely seen as the mastermind of the 2006 coup. Shortly beforehand he told the arm[...]

The army is a big part of the country’s predicament. Its generals believe they have a right to remove any government that incurs its, or the palace’s, displeasure—taking its cue from the monarchy that has approved so many of its coups.[...]

Other countries, from Spain to Brazil, have overcome dictatorial pasts to grow into strong democracies whose politics is mostly conducted in parliament, not on the streets. Thailand’s failure to follow suit is partly because “Father” has always been willing to step in and sort things out: his children have never quite had to grow up.[...]

“It is more and more difficult for them to hold the illusion that the monarchy is universally adored,” says a Thai academic. This illusion is crumbling amid growing worry about what happens when the king’s reign ends.[...]

For all these reasons, a former senior official with strong palace ties says there is a terror of what will come after Bhumibol. “When we say ‘Long live the king’ we really mean it, because we can’t bear to think of what the next step will be,” he says. [...]

If Bhumibol’s glittering reign either ends in conflagration or leads to a Thailand paralysed by endless strife, with nobody of his stature to break the deadlock, it will be a tragedy. [...]

It’s ironic : The Economist was banned (unofficially, through the distributor) in march 2002, during Thaksin’s premiership, because of an article mentioning the Thai monarchy.

But six years later, it’s like a century later… Things have changed.

Press : “Judicial coup murmurs”

Shawn W.Crispin, an acute observer of thai politics, wrote an interesting piece : “Judicial coup murmurs”.

He’s talking about the risk of dissolution (read here) of the PPP, the collapse of the coalition. He says that the verdict of the Constitution Court could come “soon” after november 26. And the PAD could push for… an interim authority.

However, a top leader within the anti-government People’s Alliance for Democracy [...] predicts a wholly different scenario after the widely expected guilty verdict, one that exploits a perceived loophole in the Thai constitution and would amount to a sort of judicial coup.

The Thai charter allows politicians from disbanded political parties 60 days to regroup under a new party banner. However, the charter fails to indicate explicitly who or what agency would have the legitimacy to govern in that interim period.

The PAD source claims that Constitution Court, Supreme Courtand Administrative Court judges have discussed establishing a “Supreme Council”, consisting symbolically of nine members, to fill the political vacuum.

The proposed authority – which the PAD source likened to China’s State Council or cabinet – would be empowered to appoint an interim prime minister and cabinet, and also pass legislation by decree. (Asia Times)

“Once the King is gone, the country will be in uncharted waters”

Bangkok Pundit has pointed out a remarkable article written in september by Thitnan Pongsudhirak, entitled “Thailand Since the Coup“.

This article summarizes the current political crisis and speaks openly about the crucial issue of the royal succession.

Some quotes.

A major factor in the deep background of Thai politics has been the twilight that is overtaking the 62-year reign of widely revered King Bhumibol. [...]

Both sides are well aware, as all Thais fear but dare not say in public, that Thailand’s future is up for grabs. What happens after the current king leaves the scene could be the most wrenching crisis yet. So successful has been his kingship that most Thais have come to take too much for granted what he has meant to the fabric of national life.

[...]
Above all, he has played the crucial role of final arbiter in a country whose politics are chronically fractious and volatile. King Bhumibol’s unsurpassed moral authority has long been Thailand’s sheet anchor, the mainstay of national stability and continuity. Once he is gone, the country will be in uncharted waters.

It is common knowledge that none of King Bhumibol’s eligible heirs can be reasonably expected to command as much popularity, reverence, and moral authority as he does.

Not only will the King leave behind a large gap by virtue of his remarkable personal achievements, but it may also be argued that institutionally the monarchy occupies an asymmetrically important position in a now-modern country where public expectations for representation and demands for a greater share of the pie are rife.

Matching up to such a predecessor and crafting a new role for the modern monarchy will be daunting challenges indeed.
[...]

Thailand has never been here before, and the Privy Council has not expressed any preference regarding the succession.

Nor has King Bhumibol indicated his own preference thus far, aside from a 1974 legal revision that enabled a female heir to ascend to the throne. Without clearer indications from the King, the palace, or the Privy Council, the royal succession will remain Thailand’s biggest and most daunting question mark.

Press : “Asian Nixonomics may spell subsidy-driven stagflation”

A very good article about the current policies, and their risks, shared by most Asian countries.

Thailand follows with diligence the text book : postpone the pain, increase the subsidies on very short term, etc… It’s Wonderland. And soon after, it will be Horrorland.

July 28 (Bloomberg) — Asian governments from India to Malaysia, clinging to budget-busting fuel subsidies, may end up paying an even higher price: saddling their economies with an extended period of stagflation.

“Subsidies will come increasingly in the way of future growth,” says Kalpana Kochhar, a senior adviser for the International Monetary Fund’s Asia-Pacific Department in Washington. “Not passing prices through and keeping artificial price and wage controls never works.”

Governments are being forced to choose between two unattractive alternatives: run up bigger deficits by continuing to shield citizens from soaring energy prices, or start to withdraw subsidies, fueling inflation and political backlash. Inflation has already reached decade highs throughout the continent and played a role in destabilizing politics.

Press : “Thailand risks becoming one of those perennially unstable, tragi-comic countries, such as the Philippines”

“Protests and coup rumours return. Thailand’s squabbling elites seem intent on ruining the country”, an article from The Economist.

I like very much the end.

After the 2006 coup the army and its allies in the bureaucracy ran the country dismally, and Thailand’s economy is now among the region’s slowest-growing. Even so, both sides in the conflict are talking up the chances of another coup—which would be the country’s 19th since the absolute monarchy came to an end in 1932.

Even if it does not go that far, prolonged political strife risks doing further economic damage. Instead of regaining its reputation as an admired, fast-developing tiger, Thailand risks becoming one of those perennially unstable, tragi-comic countries, such as the Philippines, which the outside world overlooks.

The “Philippinization” of the country has always been my worst case scenario.

We can’t deny that in 30 years, there has been a huge shift : in the 80’s Thailand was… almost alone in SEA… A brillant princess in the middle of a sleeping land surrounded by communists and weird countries…

Now, this decor is gone. The play has ended. Today, Thailand is just another developping countries in Asia, among many others…

Just after the vietnam war, Thailand had all the cards in its hand.

What have they done ?

Now, their insane political regime, their arrogance, their pathetic powerplays don’t fool anyone, anymore…

While they continue to live somewhere in the past, arguing with each others… they didn’t notice that the countries around them have changed… The world has changed.

Press : “Half of the world’s population enjoys fuel subsidies”

HALF of the world’s population enjoys fuel subsidies. This estimate, from Morgan Stanley, implies that almost a quarter of the world’s petrol is sold at less than the market price. The cheapest petrol is in Venezuela, at 5 cents per litre. That makes China’s pump price of 79 cents seem expensive, but even this is a bargain compared with $1.04 in the United States and $2.35 in Germany.

Interesting article from The Economist, to help put things in perspective.

To see my own chart of evolution of gasoline and diesel prices in Thailand, click here.

By the way, Malaysia (one of the biggest fuel subsidy in the world, costs 7 % of GDP) has just announced a 41 % increase of fuel price… And India… 10 % (Bloomberg)

UPDATE
And crude oil took 5 % in a few hours today… We are currently at 134 USD for WTI ! Sleep tight.
If it continues like that, what a terrible cisor effect for all… the subsidies…

Press : “Thailand is likely to end up with a caretaker prime minister, presiding over a weak, re-constituted coalition”

Jonathan Head, the BBB correspondent accused of lese-majeste (read about this insane story here), wrote another good piece about the political stalemate in Thailand.

So Thailand is stuck in a stalemate again. There is widespread expectation that the outspoken Mr Samak will lose control of his coalition, and possibly his party.

The threat of dissolution worries many of his MPs, who may prefer a more accommodating approach to their political rivals in the hope of forestalling such an outcome.

No parties can afford the expense of another election. Instead Thailand is likely to end up with a caretaker prime minister, presiding over a weak, re-constituted coalition.

That might be exactly the result the traditionalists, those who supported the military coup, would like.

But it would offer no clear leadership to a country which has been without it ever since Thaksin Shinawatra’s fall from power.

Press, Samak : “Burma’s leaders are normal people”

Interview of Samak (the “Prime Minister” of Thailand, sorry I need to use quotation marks…) published in Times (may 5).

After the killing of monks in the streets of Yangoon, Samak said that Burma’s leaders were “good buddhists” (read here). Now, he says that they are “normal people“.

At least, he’s constant. Constant in ignominy.

The journalist asks him :
-”Are you Thaksin’s Prime Minister ?”
-”It is an insult to ask me that question”.

Read it, it’s a “grand moment” of journalism.