Comments for Thailand Crisis http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com Politics, Economy, Insurgency : Crisis Times in Thailand Tue, 10 Nov 2009 16:37:26 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 Comment on Tourism : international arrivals down by 30 %… and counting by Insanity http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/11/10/tourism-international-arrivals-down-by-30-and-counting/#comment-10095 Insanity Tue, 10 Nov 2009 16:37:26 +0000 http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/?p=6936#comment-10095 TC RE: "And some local banks have a huge exposure to this mess." As you are aware, like home loans, commercial backed securities (CMBS) in recent years have been bundled into omnipresent exotic financial vehicles (known as conduits) which can be sold and resold. Banks were among the significant buyers of CMBS & are now sitting not only on their own malperforming loans, but on a whole lot of everyone else’s toxic junk, too. How bad are the conduits? A 3% default rate in 2008 jumped to 6% in 2009 and expected to double again to 12% in 2010. An entity that takes a 12% hit to its portfolio – and this includes countless banks, pension and annuity funds, international institutional investors, and others – is in deep, deep trouble. TC
RE: “And some local banks have a huge exposure to this mess.”

As you are aware, like home loans, commercial backed securities (CMBS) in recent years have been bundled into omnipresent exotic financial vehicles (known as conduits) which can be sold and resold. Banks were among the significant buyers of CMBS & are now sitting not only on their own malperforming loans, but on a whole lot of everyone else’s toxic junk, too.

How bad are the conduits?
A 3% default rate in 2008 jumped to 6% in 2009 and expected to double again to 12% in 2010. An entity that takes a 12% hit to its portfolio – and this includes countless banks, pension and annuity funds, international institutional investors, and others – is in deep, deep trouble.

]]> Comment on Tourism : international arrivals down by 30 %… and counting by ThaiCrisis http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/11/10/tourism-international-arrivals-down-by-30-and-counting/#comment-10094 ThaiCrisis Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:32:28 +0000 http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/?p=6936#comment-10094 If we look at the volumes, the commercial real estate disaster is less than residential. But still, it's a big number. And some local banks have a huge exposure to this mess. What is frustrating is that we know, quite well, what will happen. They all know. But there is nothing they can do... The unknown is the scale, and how long the gvt will be able to postpone the reckoning. And how much it will cost us (bailout etc.). Eventually. ;-) If we look at the volumes, the commercial real estate disaster is less than residential. But still, it’s a big number. And some local banks have a huge exposure to this mess.

What is frustrating is that we know, quite well, what will happen. They all know. But there is nothing they can do… The unknown is the scale, and how long the gvt will be able to postpone the reckoning. And how much it will cost us (bailout etc.). Eventually. ;-)

]]> Comment on Tourism : international arrivals down by 30 %… and counting by Insanity http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/11/10/tourism-international-arrivals-down-by-30-and-counting/#comment-10093 Insanity Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:20:36 +0000 http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/?p=6936#comment-10093 The tourists, as the jobs lost during this job loss recovery, wont be coming back - period. In fact it's going to get worse as the real tsunami is coming in commercial real estate, probably in the second quarter of 2010. Couldn’t be worse than last year’s U.S. residential market crash? That remains to be seen. But it’s coming soon & there’s nothing that can prevent it. The US & European governments shall intervene, trying desperately to delay the day of reckoning, & may even succeed. For a while. But make no mistake about it, it's coming. But that is not the end of it. There’s a second huge wave of U.S. commercial real estate failures on the way in 2015-16. And as the overall commercial real estate crisis escalates, the banksters will do the same thing they did last year: run to their government, palms outstretched. The tourists, as the jobs lost during this job loss recovery, wont be coming back – period.

In fact it’s going to get worse as the real tsunami is coming in commercial real estate, probably in the second quarter of 2010. Couldn’t be worse than last year’s U.S. residential market crash? That remains to be seen. But it’s coming soon & there’s nothing that can prevent it. The US & European governments shall intervene, trying desperately to delay the day of reckoning, & may even succeed. For a while. But make no mistake about it, it’s coming.

But that is not the end of it. There’s a second huge wave of U.S. commercial real estate failures on the way in 2015-16.

And as the overall commercial real estate crisis escalates, the banksters will do the same thing they did last year: run to their government, palms outstretched.

]]> Comment on Tourism : international arrivals down by 30 %… and counting by ThaiCrisis http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/11/10/tourism-international-arrivals-down-by-30-and-counting/#comment-10092 ThaiCrisis Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:20:58 +0000 http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/?p=6936#comment-10092 Bob : yes. Those figures are given by Immigration. I can't see how they could discriminate between "Bob-traveling-for-biz-1-time-per_month" and "Bob-willing-to-go-the-beach-1-time-per-year". ;-) So from my understanding, these data : http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/08/04/international-arrivals-at-suvarnabhumi-airport-chart-229-in-june/ ... are all the entries in Thailand, via Suva airport, whatever the visa (or visa exemption) the foreign individual might have. Bob : yes. Those figures are given by Immigration. I can’t see how they could discriminate between “Bob-traveling-for-biz-1-time-per_month” and “Bob-willing-to-go-the-beach-1-time-per-year”. ;-)
So from my understanding, these data :
http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/08/04/international-arrivals-at-suvarnabhumi-airport-chart-229-in-june/

… are all the entries in Thailand, via Suva airport, whatever the visa (or visa exemption) the foreign individual might have.

]]> Comment on Tourism : international arrivals down by 30 %… and counting by forumpersona999 http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/11/10/tourism-international-arrivals-down-by-30-and-counting/#comment-10091 forumpersona999 Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:38:43 +0000 http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/?p=6936#comment-10091 What I don't understand is why most 5 star hotels in Bangkok raised their room rates to High-Season pricing at the beginning of November. Case in point Sheraton Grande Sukhumvit has been hovering around 4.500 THB++ per night for the last few months and had very low occupancy rates. With occupancy un-changed, they now want 7,000 THB++ per night ("because now is high season.). I walk around Suvarnabhumi, Erawan, Sukhumvit, MBK and I do not perceive any increase in inbound tourism. What I don’t understand is why most 5 star hotels in Bangkok raised their room rates to High-Season pricing at the beginning of November.

Case in point Sheraton Grande Sukhumvit has been hovering around 4.500 THB++ per night for the last few months and had very low occupancy rates. With occupancy un-changed, they now want 7,000 THB++ per night (“because now is high season.).

I walk around Suvarnabhumi, Erawan, Sukhumvit, MBK and I do not perceive any increase in inbound tourism.

]]> Comment on Tourism : international arrivals down by 30 %… and counting by Bob http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/11/10/tourism-international-arrivals-down-by-30-and-counting/#comment-10090 Bob Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:20:09 +0000 http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/?p=6936#comment-10090 I am from Europe but work around South East Asia and arrive 10-12 times a year in Thailand, but don't really add anything to the tourist sector. Are my arrivals included in the statistic as my nationality or from what ever South East Asian country I might arrive from? I am from Europe but work around South East Asia and arrive 10-12 times a year in Thailand, but don’t really add anything to the tourist sector. Are my arrivals included in the statistic as my nationality or from what ever South East Asian country I might arrive from?

]]> Comment on Tourism : international arrivals down by 30 %… and counting by C Siam http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/11/10/tourism-international-arrivals-down-by-30-and-counting/#comment-10088 C Siam Tue, 10 Nov 2009 11:04:17 +0000 http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/?p=6936#comment-10088 The last remaining tourist arrivals are getting scammed too often, resulting in a negative impression of Thailand. Deservedly so I may add. Photo of tourist scammers here: http://www.flickr.com/photos/21533131@N06/sets/72157616786296908/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/29324583@N05/sets/72157616768273247/ The last remaining tourist arrivals are getting scammed too often, resulting in a negative impression of Thailand.
Deservedly so I may add.
Photo of tourist scammers here:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/21533131@N06/sets/72157616786296908/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/29324583@N05/sets/72157616768273247/

]]> Comment on Thaksin about Crown Prince : “when he becomes the King I’m confident he can be shining “ by Tarrin http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/11/09/thaksin-about-crown-prince-when-he-becomes-the-king-i%e2%80%99m-confident-he-can-be-shining/#comment-10087 Tarrin Tue, 10 Nov 2009 09:08:46 +0000 http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/?p=6929#comment-10087 In this case, I think both side is equally retarded, for Thaksin, why does he want to sue Times? You should know that Thais media hated you and your only potential friend is the foreign media, why on Earth do you want to pick a fight with your potential supporter? If I'm Thaksin I will just say "I didn't insult the monarch" and end of speech, just keep quiet alrady!. As for the Dem, even Thaksin's breath is poisonous, take a hike and stop overreact with everything Thaksin does and concentrate on what you are suppose to do "run the darn country" if you cant do that then dont assume that Thai people are supporting you, because we are not!. People die no one can deny that, except some bozo that went hallucinated (due to heavily propagandized) in Thailand who think a person can live forever, no, people cant live forever and it is important the Thais have to start to grow up and talk about the country's future. In this case, I think both side is equally retarded, for Thaksin, why does he want to sue Times? You should know that Thais media hated you and your only potential friend is the foreign media, why on Earth do you want to pick a fight with your potential supporter? If I’m Thaksin I will just say “I didn’t insult the monarch” and end of speech, just keep quiet alrady!.
As for the Dem, even Thaksin’s breath is poisonous, take a hike and stop overreact with everything Thaksin does and concentrate on what you are suppose to do “run the darn country” if you cant do that then dont assume that Thai people are supporting you, because we are not!.
People die no one can deny that, except some bozo that went hallucinated (due to heavily propagandized) in Thailand who think a person can live forever, no, people cant live forever and it is important the Thais have to start to grow up and talk about the country’s future.

]]> Comment on Thaksin about Crown Prince : “when he becomes the King I’m confident he can be shining “ by stangoesagain http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/11/09/thaksin-about-crown-prince-when-he-becomes-the-king-i%e2%80%99m-confident-he-can-be-shining/#comment-10086 stangoesagain Tue, 10 Nov 2009 04:30:59 +0000 http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/?p=6929#comment-10086 "Ousted Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra calls for ‘shining’ new age after King’s death" - that's a very poor wording by Times, not wonder Thaksin is incensed. Though Thaksin has made his preferences rather clear, he has never "called" for it. For media savvy Thaksin this it's the second shot in the head in one week and it would take months to erase these images from public memory, he just started recovering from Songkran and now this. Poor old Thaksin (only two hundred million left, never declared). “Ousted Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra calls for ‘shining’ new age after King’s death” – that’s a very poor wording by Times, not wonder Thaksin is incensed.

Though Thaksin has made his preferences rather clear, he has never “called” for it.

For media savvy Thaksin this it’s the second shot in the head in one week and it would take months to erase these images from public memory, he just started recovering from Songkran and now this.

Poor old Thaksin (only two hundred million left, never declared).

]]> Comment on Police hysteria against “rumors mongers” : owner of a snooker bar arrested by Mr.? http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/11/05/police-hysteria-against-rumors-mongers-owner-of-a-snooker-bar-arrested/#comment-10085 Mr.? Tue, 10 Nov 2009 04:27:05 +0000 http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/?p=6911#comment-10085 Thai Netizen Network: Request for Clarification Regarding The Arrests of Internet Users http://thainetizen.org/node/802 Thai Netizen Network: Request for Clarification Regarding The Arrests of Internet Users

http://thainetizen.org/node/802

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