The navy is looking into the feasibility of buying submarines for military and economic security reasons, navy chief Kamthorn Pumhirun says.

A feasibility committee has been set up to study submarine technology.

The navy will push for the purchase of the submarines, priced at 20 billion baht each, when there is enough money available. (Bangkok Post)

The Submarine Saga is an old one. The government spent already money on this hilarious project.

The navy chief said neighbouring Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and Vietnam all had ordered submarines from Russia.

The submarines, he insisted, could serve many purposes and were a necessity. [...]

Adm Kamthorn said the submarines would help strengthen the economy. They would help safeguard the country’s natural resources, fisheries, oil exploration, export cargoes and tourism.

Sure. No doubt.

And a thai submarine would also solve the global warming problem, cure cancer and would of course increase penis size.

Kamthorn is nothing more than a clown in uniform.

No problem. Everybody should be free to ridicule itself (and ridicule doesn’t kill unfortunately). But he’s an expensive clown. A parasite sucking out money for grotesque projects (and a few friends pockets)… at the expense of the thai people.

And like BP wrote, the King criticized this stupid idea… in 2008… So, do we have to understand that the navy chief does not care about the King’s opinion ?

Let’s burry 2009… A year that lot of people would like to forget.

All my best wishes for you and all the Thailand-lovers. And remember the 2 main mantras of 2009 :

-On going Recovery
-Change Yes We Can(‘t)

And be prepared for a very interesting 2010, during wich the bulk of the deception (all the stimulus and bailout plans around the world, cheap money, artificially low interest rates, etc.) is going to blow off.

They tried to sell us a collective hallucination… To some extend, it worked (at least for the balance sheets of banks and the bonuses of their employees). But the Reality is going to catch up… with ugliness : mountains of debts, deficits, depressed purchase power because of unavoidable higher taxes, higher unemployement, currencies disorders etc.

For my last 2009 post, let’s have a look on the latest data published by the  Department of Business Development.

Unprecedented. The Big Crisis has ravaged businesses. It was forecasted. No surprise at all. But it’s interesting to  hear the government talking about “recovery” and “lower unemployment”…

A total of 24 592 companies have been dissolved during Q3. That’s a whooping increase of 347 % compared to Q3 2008…

Companies = Limited Company + Limited Partnership + Ordinary Partnership (Public Limited companies are excluded)

Dissolution = Dissolved Defunct and Bankrupt

Now a look per month.

Rome had panem et circense (bred and games)…

The Kingdom of Thailand has free water, free electricity and more holidays.

That’s the Wonderland of Abhisit.

Poor Thais to benefit from measures to curb water, power, bus, train, gas fees

The Cabinet yesterday agreed to keep the five cost-of-living mitigation measures going for three more months, as well as giving the green light for recurring borrowing of Bt35 billion for this fiscal year.

The five measures, extended three times already, were set to expire at year-end . (Nation)

And :

Cabinet Tuesday approved one additional holiday for the Songkran holidays and the National Mother’s Day period. As a result, Songkran would be for six days from April 13-18, and Mother’s Day would be for four days from August 12-15. (Nation)

The point is : Samak (PM of Thaksin’s party) did it. It was in july 2008. At that time, people were hammered by high inflation (yes I know it sounds like a century ago). The oil prices crisis.

Then Somchai (brother in law of Thaksin) continued the same policy. And of course, Abhisit jumped into the same wagon ! Happy like the Monty Python Flying Circus having intercourse with Benny Hill.

Eventually, the idea is exactly the same : buy with money( you don’t have) some political and popular support.

So the clowns who were waiting for a “Change” with Abhisit are… well… clowns indeed.

Different side, different people, different color, but the same breed actually : dirty, corrupted, neuronless politicians.

The government is broke ? Mai pen rai, more subsidies. The recession should command more effort, more work ? Mai mi pen ha, more holidays.

Anyway. In january 2009, Abhisit extended this package.

Thaiwonderland : Abhisit extends the “Samak Package”, but changes its name

What will he do in 3 months ?

Good. Now you start to understand (thai) politics.

(Source Bank Of Thailand, table FI_CB_015_S3).

The growth of total outstanding credit for businesses recorded a drop of 7% in october (-6,4 % in september), compared to october 2008.

Overall, we still have a growth of 3,8 % year on year, at 7 623 billions THB.

Slowely, but surely (?) the credit belt is tightening. Sure, it could be worse. But the trend is not really euphoric for businesses.

By the way it’s interesting to look at the weight of each group :

In % of the total amount of outstanding credit, the part for businesses went from 60 % in 2006 to 47 % in october 2009.

And the part of “domestic banks and financial institutions” is catching up.

Anyway. It doesn’t prevent the Bank Of Thailand to make comments, coming out from outer space.

Commercial bank lending was likely to increase by five to nine per cent in 2010, the Bank of Thailand forecast on Thursday. Central bank deputy governor Bandit Nijthaworn said bank loans should rise next year as loan figures in October rose 0.2 per cent year-on-year and 0.4 per cent from September. Lending declined in the first nine months of this year due to the sluggish economy.

Mr Bandit said loans should move positively next year because the actual liquidity was five-times more than the required amount. The amount available would be adequate for commercial banks to support the business sector. (Bangkok Post)

9 % ? And why not 25 % ? ! It’s laughable. And as usual we can admire the perfectly non sensical and twisted inference made by thai officials. Let me highlight the key point : loans will go up because… there are liquidities !

This guy is so dumb, it’s scary.

The rule is : credit = solvent demand + means (liquidities).

It means : even if there are tons of cash, but NO (SOLVENT) DEMAND BECAUSE… for instance… an economic crisis (hello, you remember ?) then there will be no loans. I repeat : banks won’t lend.

Banks won’t lend to please the BOT, Korn (the alleged Finance Minister), Wall Street, the panda in Chiang Mai’s Zoo or Santa Claus.

Businesses won’t ask loans to invest if there is no demand for more goods, more production. However, they might looking for money… just to survive. And in this case, the banks won’t lend. Too risky. Vicious circle.

Credit is not, should not be like a living creature. Credit is a mean. Not an end.

And this is precisely what was forgotten by all the clowns around the world. And this is precisely the cause of the Big Crisis : free money pushed into the throats of millions of people and businesses, in the name of “economic growth”, when in facts the proper name was : Ponzi Scheme.

The question might appears as provocative. But let’s review some hypothesis.

First the fact : the King is in hospital since… september 19. Almost 3 months !

Second : at the beginning, the state apparatus spent a lot of energy to try to divert attention, to water down the reality of the King’s ailment. That was achieved through surreal “daily official statements” (read a few of my previous articles here and there).

Third : the King made 3 public appearances… 2 at the hospital. And the last one was for a very brief address, for his birthday last week (read here).

On december 5, as soon as the speech was over, the convoy of official cars (a VW van for the King) went… back to the hospital. Live on TV.

Now,  let’s go deeper.

1-We can assume without any risk that the King of Thailand would be able to get all doctors and equipments money and modern science can buy. When he wants. And where he wants.

2-It would be rational to assume that the King would prefer to be in his palace,  home, while being treated, rather than in a hospital room.

3-And we can assume, due to past events (the attempts to water down the reality of the health situation), that it would be  in the interest of the state apparatus to continue the same policy. AKA : stability. We could even say : it’s in the public interest. For that matter, It would be perfectly logic to try, as far as possible, to shorten and/or to hide the most visible proof of abnormality, AKA the King’s hospitalization.

Normality = King in his palace (even if very hill). Abnormality = King in hospital.

It’s basic common sense.

So let’s recap… 1+2+3 = ?

Why do they keep the King in the hospital ? Why did they show to the world this convoy of official cars… travelling back from the palace directly to the hospital, right after the royal speech ?

Why such an ostentatious hurry ? Live on all thai TV channels ?

Why they didn’t even try to… pretend ?

It doesn’t make any sense.

Until… well… it makes perfectly sense… AKA = this is exactly what they want to show.

Let’s assume that the whole situation is designed.

What would be their motives ? Who would benefit from this operation ?

The answer seems then obvious : while the King is in the hospital, AKA in a position of weakness, the struggle with the opposition can not resume. The thai people is compelled, in a way, to unite behind its monarch.

To summarize : in order to prevent (political) abnormality, a group of people (?) could paradoxically gamble and play on a… a real abnormality.

What do you think ? Far stretched ?

Back to business (I took a few days off).

Bank Of Thailand has published data for exports in october.

Total : 495,33 billions THB, that’s lower than the previous month (503,63) and it’s -4 % compared to october 2008.

As forecasted, the Green Shoots start to… well… vanish (have they ever existed ?). The effects of the massive, ultra massive bail out and stimulus plans worldwide… start to fade away. It’s obvious in the US, in Japan, in Europe… But we are still in a X Files Episode : I Want To Believe.

From a macro economic point of view, the situation is worsening.  And in a few months, we will merely see those few months as an illusion… Anyway.

Now the chart per zone.

And the chart with the values compared to Thai Peak Exports (july 2008).

My mistake.

I praised -loudly- the courage and the honesty of Piyasvasti, the newly appointed president of Thai Airways.

He had the courage to call a rose a rose… and a pile of manure a pile of manure.

“The management had not really been allowed to manage the company,” Mr Piyasvasti said in an unusually frank interview.
“The company had been interfered heavily by the board, by the politicians.

Alas… natural behavior is coming back with a vengeance…. !

Thai Airways International (THAI)’s chief executive says Thai-owned carriers should form a united front against foreign rivals, especially the fledging budget carrier AirAsia, whose rapid expansion is seen as a “threat”.

“Instead of fighting among ourselves, it would be better for us, Thai airlines, to stick together, co-operate and fight AirAsia, which is the biggest threat,” said Piyasvasti Amranand.

“They [AirAsia] are expanding rapidly, taking a lot of passengers away. Their Thai market share has been increasing rapidly.” (Bangkok Post)

Voila. Disappointment. Again.

That’s the curse of Thailand.

To call other companies to combine force against a player, why not. It’s competition. It’s deals. It’s healthy. It should be the natural course of capitalism and free entreprise.

But, it’s stronger than him : Piyasvasti sees the problem through a despicable (and so over done, and so cheap) nationalism.

Like for many other thai officials (government and business)  it’s a burning obsession : “Them against us” . The world against Thailand. The foreigners against the Thais.

A mind frame.

And this is precisely why Thailand won’t be able to develop itself furthermore.

They are all dinosaurs, and for that matter condemned to vanish from the surface of the Earth.

And the astonishing success of Air Asia (an asian player, absolutly not a western player) is a striking proof of it.

And it’s like a card to announce the dinosaurs’ funerals.

Bye bye Thai Airways.

[Last point : eventhough this story is a small one... it tells a lot about politics. It helps us to foresee the future... It helps us to understand that all the projects of political union in Asean or in Asia are just... nice fictions designed to entertain the clowns. ]

Korn was the first to show his gun : “no alarm” he said.

The alleged Finance Minister was reacting at the vietnamese currency devaluation and the Dubai’s debacle.

You have to understand that the first duty of any thai official is to come on TV after any kind of intrinsic negative event (terrorist attack, bad news for the economy, Michael Jackson death,  new hair style of a famous singer etc.) to say that this event will have no or minimal impact (on Thailand that is to say).

The Prime Minister had to follow the rule too.

Mr Abhisit said he believed their impacts on the Thai economy would be minimal. (Bangkok Post)

So no worries, however…

The economic ministers will meet on Monday to discuss the debt crisis in Dubai and the devaluation on Vietnam’s dong currency, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said in his weekly broadcast on Sunday.

He said the government will continue monitoring the global economic situation closely, and the Council of Economic Ministers will discuss the details of the Dubai World’s debt and dong’s devaluation on Monday.

… however they are going to talk about it.

A perfect summary of the (reversed) way thai politician’s brain is working :

-first : talking
-second : thinking (or trying to)

That’s the beauty with cheating : you always find a bigger cheater than yourself.

And this is exactly what is happening in Asia (and around the world).

The crisis is worsening (see Dubai’s default), tensions and imbalances are increasing, and all the clowns try the same thing : The Beggar thy neighbor policy, in order to save their own exports, at the expenses of somebody else.

That’s the principle of the Beggar thy neighbor policy.

This is why it’s  absurd to pretend that everybody can do it, at the same time. The Beggar thy neighbor policy implies that someone loses.

Someone has to lose.

Vietnam has devalued its currency (by 5,4 %, read here) and increased interest rates. Why ? “To contain inflation“.

The first part (devaluation) is of course totally surreal when you pretend to fight inflation. Sure Vietnam can survive without importing L’Oreal beauty creams for instance… but It can’t avoid to import oil. And already, gasoline prices have increased in the country. And like Thailand (and China), economic growth is based on cheap fuels.

So the devaluation increases the costs, costs are passed onto the consummers : prices rise. Inflation.

The vietnamese government, like the thai government, is living in Lala Land. They just want to boost their exports.

Effect on Thailand ? Overnight, thai goods, like rice, are 5,4 % more expensive compared to vietnamese rice.

Now, let’s see what Korn, the alleged Finances Minister, has to say.

“Vietnam’s decision to devalue the dong will not affect exports or other currencies in the region,” Korn told reporters. “Thailand has no plan to hike its interest rate any time soon.”

The minister said the premium quality of Thailand’s rice insulated it from competition with Vietnam. (Nation)

Insulated from competition ? Korn is an expert in bozoness. Not affecting other currencies in the region ? Ah ah ah, another medal.

[Chart of USD Index]

And in the background… the USD dollar is sinking. And will continue to sink. And Korn will continue to make inane comments, and the economic situation will continue to worsen.

Life is sweet. Let’s have another drink.

[You want to understand the reasons of Dubai's debacle ? Look here... Asthonishing pictures... Everything was written, on the walls and at the top of hundreds of cranes, and the clowns, as usual, pretend today to be "surprised" ! ]

[do you remember april 2009 ?]

It started on november 20.

ISA may be invoked

That’s sweet. “may”, “might”.

Then, we had other details 4 days after:

Speaking to reporters after a meeting with security agencies, Suthep said he will ask the Cabinet to approve the enforcement of the ISA for Dusit district, Rajdamnoen Road and Bang Khun Prom area during the period. (Nation)

Let’s stop here for a moment. What is ISA ? The Internal Security Act. It’s a politically correct and modern version (style Abhisit Change Yes We Can’t) of martial law. Yes ladies and gentlemen : martial law.

The Internal Security Act (ISA) allows troops to impose curfews, operate checkpoints, restrict movements of protesters and act fast if rallies by the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) turn violent. (Reuters).

So what would you say about the proposal of Suthep to impose martial law… in some streets of Bangkok, here but not there ?

The word you are looking for is : clown.

Of course.

But let’s continue, with eventually, the real version of this grotesque new thai  drama.

The cabinet on Tuesday morning approved the use of the Internal Security Act (ISA) throughout Bangkok from Nov 28 to Dec 14 to cope with the red-shirts’ plan for prolonged anti-government protests.

Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, who is in charge of security affairs, said on Monday that the ISA would be limited to only in Dusit and nearby Sommanas and Bang Khun Phrom sub-districts.

However, the cabinet decided to invoke it across all of Bangkok since the red-shirts had declared they would rally and split into groups that would protest separately at many different locations in the capital next Monday.

“The cabinet made this decision because the protesters may go separately to many different locations. The wider coverage of the law will enable security units to effectively perform their duty throughout Bangkok. (Bangkok Post)

Suthep is a liar and a clown.

A liar because, the decision to use ISA on the whole city of Bangkok , not only parts, was taken long time ago. And a  clown because the propaganda he uses is so cheap…

Now. Other issue : why 15 days ? I mean why not… 360 days ? Yeah. That would be so convenient for all those friends of “democracy” and “rule of law” (you remember the fetish words of our dashing Prime Minister, Abhisit).

No more opposition, no more trouble, welcome Burma, welcome China, welcome North Korea. Yeah that would be so cool, right Mister Abhisit ?

And as usual, they use the monarchy as a grotesque toy, a tool, to justify their own political agenda.

Sure we have the birthday of the King on december the 5th… So what ? Why is it necessary to keep ISA until december 14 ?

But let’s go back to our beloved Abhisit. What does he think ?

The government needs to enforce the Internal Security Act (ISA) across Bangkok between Nov 28 and Dec 15 to deal with the red-shirt protesters if they split up and rally at different locations, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said on Tuesday. [...]

“There are reports that people, including foreign workers, have been gathered from different regions to join the demonstration,” Mr Abhisit said. (Bangkok Post)

Ouh we are scared… legions of mean foreigners (cambodian perhaps ?) ready to crush Thailand…

You see. Since last december, I tell you that Abhisit is nothing but a vulgar thai politician, hidding inside a smiling puppet.

Abhisit has no shame. No shame to use this dirty trick : the fear of the foreigners…

It’s pathetic. Abhisit is pathetic.