Mission accomplished : the BOI has saved Thailand from foreign investors

The Board of Investment has agreed to cut down foreigners’ right to hold stakes in sensitive businesses from 100 per cent to 49 per cent in a bid to minimise the impact from the liberalisation of investment in Asean.

“The agricultural activities are listed in Annex 1 of the BOI Act, which the board agreed to revise in terms of size, investment conditions and privileges based on the country’s interest, since Thai operators are not competitive enough to go against other countries,” she said.

The act also does not allow foreigners to hold more than 49 per cent in the forestry and livestock, including aquatic animal, businesses.

“Our limits will not impact on foreigners’ investment because such business activities are normally protected in most agriculture-based countries. We are the first government agency to revise our promotion criteria to protect local people, while other agencies are considering the revision too,” she said. (Nation)

I remind you that the Board of Investment’s goal… is to promote foreign investments in Thailand.

More seriously : we have here another set of winners. Well done guys.

And as usual, we shall give the mic to Abhisit. What does our dashing Prime Minister think about this decision ? Does he agree ? Does he disagree ? I mean he’s the alleged PM… so ? He should have -at least- an opinion.

Since Abhisit was made PM last december, the guy is a master of double speak, double standards. He’s totally schizophrenic.

He makes very nice speeches abroad to push foreign investments, with very nice and sweet words (rule of law, democracy, blabla, you know the full set).  He tries to sell Thailand’s image… And locally, like a fart, we can read such decision taken by the BOI. So ?

Another perfectly normal day in Thailand…

Abhisit did it. What ? The picture with Obama (and the ugly shirt)

Three ! And counting.

The first time, sorry “The First Time”, it was in London at the G20. Last april. Then we had the G20 Summit in Pittsburgh. September.

Abhisit, Prime Minister (unelected but very happy and very self contented) had his picture with Obama (Change Yes We Can’t, trademark) at the APEC summit, this week end.

Oh yeah. And with an ugly shirt asian style. Double yeah. And we shall notice the hand, sorry “The Hand”, on his shoulder… Abhisit probably fainted, overwhelmed by emotions.

Anyway. Why should we mock this man ? One word : schizophrenia.

(And we should say exactly the same about… Barack Obama himself… Afterall, he invented the Yes We Can’t concept… The absolute political schizophrenia it’s… him. Latest example : “We want to cut the US deficit“… when we all know that Obama has exploded the US deficit, and continues to increase it, every day).

Have you followed the Thailand versus Cambodia Drama ? With Abhisit, and the whole thai state apparatus, totally obsessed by every footstep (or air mile) taken by Thaksin ? And the spies ? And the diplomatic fight ? And the TV, the newspapers ? And all this crap ? Amazing.

It’s a telenovelas. An opera bouffe. A comedy. An orgy of ridicule.

Abhisit is ridding the nationalist card, because obviously it’s his last, and meanwhile the man is making empty speeches on the international scene, shaking the hand of Obama. Scene, that’s the proper word.

Left … right … and between those 2 sides, the feeling that there is an amazing emptyness.

To summarize the action of Abhisit (watch out, almost 1 year…) :

-domestic : nothing. Excepted political games, saber rattling and smiles.

-international : speeches with big words (sustainable development, democracy, rule of law, growth etc.) and shaking hands. And smiles.

Anyway. It’s not the first anniversary yet… Let’s wait december. And then we could unleash our critics.

Abhisit… only one more month to Change Yes We Can(‘t).

Hurry up.

Chart, oil net imports : recovery, but at lower levels

Yes. This is a Green Shoot. And as Green Shoot Amateur and hunter, I know when I see one.

Here is my beloved indicator : oil.

Oil consumption seen through the prism of imports… more precisely net imports (imports minus exports), because Thailand produces and exports oil too.

Why oil (as the first source of energy) is an important indicator ? Because, without making bad jokes, it’s the motor of the economy. We hate, we love it, whatever, this is a fact and we have to deal with it.

The EPPO (Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy) has updated the figures for september (table 2.1-5, and 2.1-4).

Let’s start with imports, volume and amount.

But as I said, let’s go deeper with net imports (we have to remove exports).

There is a clear hike in september : 616 000 barrels per day in september. But we can see that we are clearly under the levels of 2007 and (mid) 2008. During those years, we hit several months 750 000 barrels per day.

Has Thailand increased its energy efficiency between 2007 and 2009 ? Of course not. Consumption went down because of the crisis (plural… we had many in Thailand : political crisis, then inflation crisis, then the Big Global Crisis etc.)

Same datas, but with the % of change year on year (we compare for instance september 2009 with september 2008 etc.)

It’s even clearer… We went rock bottom last winter, during the Great Panic… and since then we start to go up. Slowly but surely (eventhough I insist, we are at lower levels than before).

With the base effect starting in november… the % y-o-y are going to increase a lot.

So shall we rejoyce ? I doubt it. Because oil (energy) is the biggest weakness of Asia.

Remember Thailand in july 2008… Not so long ago… We were on the verge of catastrophy with oil prices at all time highs… Yeah I know people have short memory…

This collective terror will come back. Later… We had it before in the West (70’s)… It will be a first for Asia…

And one thing is sure : they are not prepared for it.

Chart, foreign currency reserves and US Treasuries : “Gimme more”

Britney Spears ? Nope. The Bank Of Thailand.

Time passes and the BOT pursues with a striking constance -like all the other asian central banks- their suicidal mission : buying US Dollars, mountains of it, and worse  US Treasuries, AKA US debts in US Dollars, in order to save their pathetic exports figures by keeping a weak exchange rate for their currency: it’s the Beggar thy neighbour policy.

US debt in US dollars ? Talk about a double whammy.

And meanwhile… the smart guys (asian too) are buying gold.

Talk about major schizophrenia.

Let’s update our charts.

“Gimme more of less”. What to say else ? More USD and more US Treasuries (US debts).

Yes, the proper word is : “correlation”. This chart is screaming… The Great Correlation.

The key word is : “stability” (apparent, virtual). That’s the fantasy of the thai central bank… But it doesn’t work this way. Because if indeed it’s possible to fool all the people all the time, at one point you face laws of physics…

We can see a lot of efforts (buying a lot of USD) in order to keep the exchange rate USD-THB stable.

We are deep inside the Rabbit’s Hole, Wonderland. It’s the lala economy.

Sustainable ? We will see.

(Source Bank Of Thailand, and US Treasury).

PS : Sorry to repeat myself, over and over… But if you’re looking for some light inside the tunnel… Point your browser to Mish Blog and Calculated Risk Blog. Those people have understood it all… since at least 3 years… Yes, the “crisis”, the “recession”, the “depression” whatever you wish to call it is nothing but new… It was documented, predicted, announced, analysed, dissected… But of course, you didn’t get the chance to read it on Bloomberg or the Wall Street Journal.

Don’t be a clown.

Break your chains.

Weird : “Demons” statues at airport bring bad luck to “shopkeepers”

Fed up with Thaksin ? Enough of Abhisit ? And all the other clowns ? Have a drink and some “weird-bigotery” appetizer.

Twelve “demon statues” at Suvarnabhumi airport believed to have brought bad luck to shopkeepers will be moved at a cost of one million baht.

The guardian spirit statues will be shifted from the inner zone of the passenger terminal to the check-in area to “improve morale” of people working at the airport.

Suvarnabhumi director Niran Thiranartsin said the sculptures were modelled on 12 statues at the Grand Palace. [...]

Mr Niran admitted the decision to relocate the figures from the inner part of the passenger terminal had partly resulted from complaints from staff working in the inner zone which has many shops.

The shopkeepers are blaming the “demon statues” for the problems they have faced at the airport, which was seized late last year by demonstrators and supporters of the People’s Alliance for Democracy. (Bangkok Post)

It’s totally surreal ! I love it.

To move those statues, why not. But what is striking is the justification… AOT and King Power employees (?) have “problems”, so they blame the statues, so the management agrees to move them.

Why not blaming incompetence, corruption, the recession ? Of course not. The statues are a much better choice, target.

Just another perfectly normal day in Thailand…

Lese-Majeste : here we go again… complaint against Thaksin and a foreign news editor

What is funny is the extreme predictability of the “useful idiots”.

Thaksin has landed in Cambodia. Thaksin has given a bold interview (read here), in which he speaks about the sucession, the monarchy, the crown prince etc..

Just enough to ignite the rocket fuel under the arse of some politicians and generals. 1, 2, 3 Lift off !

The Siam Samakkhi Group on Tuesday filed two complaints alleging lese majeste with Dusit police against former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and two other people.

The complaints were lodged on behalf of the group by senators Somchai Sawaengkarn and Warin Thiamjarat, Gen Somchet Boonthanom, former chief of the secretariat of the Council for National Security, and Lt-Gen Nanthadet Meksawat, former deputy chief of the national intelligence coordination centre.

The first complaint was against Thaksin and Richard Lloyd Parry, editor of the Asia edition of The Times, which published the Thaksin interview in which he referred to the monarchy. (Bangkok Post)

Ah ah ah, the editor of the Asia edition of The Times, a british citizen based in Tokyo  ? Why not the Queen of England ? Thailand has not yet reached the bottom of ridicule… We can count on those people to complete the job.

Those people are lunatics, totally delusional.

The worse is : they probably believe -for some of them- they’re righteous.

Thaksin is playing against them… And what they can only do is to charge him with lese-majeste… On both side, the political manipulation is obvious… So by doing so, they’re undermining the monarchy that they pretend to defend.

The thai monarchy is becoming a toy, into the hands of corrupted politicians and people looking for power… It’s a shame.

Tourism : international arrivals down by 30 %… and counting

The Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA) projects international tourist arrivals to Thailand through its members will decrease by 38% to 1.5 million this year due to the persistence of global economic problems and local political instability. [...]

In the first 10 months of this year, ATTA reported tourist arrivals through its members dropped by 30% year-on-year to 1.257 million. The lowest point was October with only 89,388. (Bangkok Post)

The figures are adamant. What is more funny are the explanations…

“Initially, we expected October arrivals of 140,000, slightly lower than last year’s 143,746, but the strike by railway workers caused many rail-based tour groups, especially those from Malaysia and Singapore, to cancel their trips,” he said.

The incident also affected European visitors who bought rail packages, as they simply moved to other countries.

Mr Surapol added that the greatest plunge in visitors came from South Korea, whose arrivals dropped by 56.5% to 70,526, followed by Japan, off by 38.4% to 135,202, and Finland, down by 37.9% to 8,095.

Do you know a lot of european tourists buying “rail packages” to visit Thailand from another country (we are talking here about international arrivals)… ?

Anyway, let’s be serious. The Green Shoots Mania hasn’t “touched” the masses of international travelers. Obviously.

The party is over. They need money to pay back the banks bailouts, to pay for the insane keynesian policies of all the government in the world, many lost their job, their house, and they are burried under debts (public and private)… so they have less money for the bagatelle, AKA some holidays in Thailand to get their skin burned by the tropical sun, eventhough they love it.

And ask yourself : will they have a higher income tomorrow compared to today ? And compared to yesterday ? It’s all about income, AKA solvent demand.

This a basic principle that the clowns don’t want to understand. Income. Income. Solvent demand. Jobs. And debts.

A “jobless recovery” like they say is nothing more than a pathetic oxymoron. There is no sustainable recovery, only a statistical fart as far as GDP is concerned, and a propaganda fantasia sold by corrupted politicians, totally burned out, scared of their own shadow.

And there won’t be any recovery, while developed economies are still destroying jobs.

Thaksin about Crown Prince : “when he becomes the King I’m confident he can be shining “

A bold interview published by Times, with a very bold title (but I think misleading in a way) :

Ousted Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra calls for ‘shining’ new age after King’s death

[...] Tomorrow [tuesday] he is due to arrive in Cambodia on a visit that has caused an intense diplomatic row between the two countries. [...]

Mr Thaksin’s remarks about the Thai monarchy are further evidence that, three years after being forced out as the democratically elected Prime Minister in a military coup, he is still contemplating a political future in Thailand. They also suggest that he is placing his hopes in the man likely to succeed to the country’s throne: the Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn.

“He’s not the king yet. He may not be shining [now],” Mr Thaksin told The Times in an interview from Dubai. “But after he becomes the King I’m confident he can be shining . . . it’s not his time yet. But when the time comes I think he will be able to perform.” [...]

“The Crown Prince may not be as popular as His Majesty the King,” Mr Thaksin said. “However, he will have less problem because the palace circle will be smaller . . . He had education abroad and he’s young. I think he understands the modern world.

“When the world is changing every organisation must adapt to the changing environment. When you are born as a baby your heart is very small [but] you cannot keep the baby heart in an adult body . . . Every institution, not just the royal institution, is the same — it must be adapted.”

Poor Abhisit. Nightmares are likely to continue to haunt his nights… !

As for Thaksin, this is really bold material.

Anyway… Let’s wait tuesday. If really Thaksin is about to land in Cambodia… the blow would be enormous for Abhisit… Like a very bad poker player, he bluffed with no cards in his hand… Toying with words (saying that Thailand would ask for Thaksin’s extradition, cutting diplomatics ties etc.)… He is trapped inside the trap he designed himself…

What is he going to do ?

The drama is unfolding.

UPDATE

Well, that was fast. Thaksin has issued a statement to denounce the “complete distorsion” of his interview.

“It (the article) was a complete distortion of my interview.  The falsified article has caused confusion among the readers and the Thai people.  The headline made by Timesonline is not true.  I never said that in the interview,” Thaksin said in the statement.

 

You feel bored ? Politically weak ? You’re a dirty thai politician ? Let’s declare war to Cambodia

The popularity rating of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva tripled after his decisive action of downgrading diplomatic ties with Cambodia, according to an Abac Poll survey released yesterday.
[...]
Factors attributing to the rise in popularity include the sentiment against Cambodia’s attack on the Thai judicial system and concern over the consequences of the Cambodians’ appointment of fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra as an adviser. (Nation)

Mission accomplished ! Dirty Abhisit has won the day. Congratulations to him. I won’t comment more on this inane “let’s cut diplomatic ties with Cambodia” hysteria… It makes me sick.

Just 2 things :

-Abhisit is not ashamed to use a very cheap propaganda trick, in order to deflect attention from real problems and real issues. It’s the eternal “scapegoat” principle, mixed with the good old : “let’s go after foreigners”. Unfortunatly, It works very well.

-I don’t even think they had to manipulate the survey results. Thai people are, on this subject, totally stupid and brainwashed. Like europeans people were stupid and brainwashed in 1914. Those damned french, german who were so happy to go to war against each others, destroying their -common- civilization… Totally consumed by nationalism evil.

Anyway. The bottom line is : you can’t have any more doubt about Abhisit.

He’s just despicable.

Like all his peers (thai and combodian as well).

Banking system, thai understanding of “liberalisation” : “foreign banks can open 2 more branches”

BoT pushes liberalisation under new plan, writes Bangkok Post.

As any normal human being, you would feel excited. So you decide to continue to read. And gradually, you feel baffled and eventually you end up in tears. That’s the beauty of Thailand : a perpetual source of exercise for our zygomatic muscles.

Ready ?

Thailand’s new financial master plan will offer greater opportunities for foreign banks, says Bank of Thailand governor Tarisa Watanagase. [...] The central bank’s second financial-sector master plan would gradually liberalise the sector from 2010-14. [...]

From 2012-13, the central bank will allow greater competition within the sector, starting by allowing foreign banks to open up to two branches in addition to their head offices.

Do you know, as of september, what is the total number of branches of commercial banks in Thailand ?

5 673.

I repeat : 5 673

I know, the proper word is : “surreal”.

(source BOT, FI_CB_060_S2)

So after giving a huge, astronomical boost to foreign banks (allowing them to open 2 more branches)… then come the final blow :

The central bank has no plans to offer new universal banking licences, seeing the current 15 banks as enough for the country’s needs.

Voila. The words “competition” and “liberalisation” in Tarisa’s mouth mean : “we don’t need more banks”.

Surreal. Just surreal. But so tasty. Viva Tarisa !

PS : since I study Thailand, there is one great mystery I was unable to solve : do they really believe the non-sensical words coming out of their mouth… Or do they really think that foreigners are totally and definitely stupid ? To this day, I’m still wondering…

Police hysteria against “rumors mongers” : owner of a snooker bar arrested

It would be hilarious if it wasn’t tragic.

I didn’t blog before about the state campaign against “rumors mongers” in the case of the King’s health and a (tiny) drop of the stock market in october. Two people have been arrested last week.

I was thinking (fool)… “oh well , another non-event in Lalaland”… But this story takes amazing proportions, even by thai standards.

And the police seems totally out of control… It’s a self reinforcing hysteria.

Look at the latest news :

The owner of a snooker bar in Chon Buri who allegedly posted unverified assertions that led to a stock market plunge last week is the link who will lead to the arrest of those behind rumour-mongering and their accomplices, a senior police officer said yesterday. (Nation)

What started as a gross manipulation about a perfectly non-existent manipulation (of the stock market), driven only by a cheap political agenda (to intimidate the opposition, to close a few thai websites and create a red herring for the masses), has become an hilarious saga.

And some officials are even talking about going after Bloomberg (read here) !

I mean… what’s next ? Are they going to arrest a maid, a taxi driver, a farmer, a hooker ? “Rumors mongers” and “national security”… it’s just amazing !

Day after day Thailand ridicules itself, deeper, higher, stronger.

And we shall notice the striking silence of our dear Abhisit, the dashing and so called Oxford-Educated-Prime-Minister-Obama-Style.

What does he think about this story ? Is he laughing ? Crying ? Does he approve ? Is he the initiator ? A mere supporter ? Or does have his hands tied behind his back ?

Where is the “democracy” lover ? The defender of the “rule of the law” ? The politician who was defeated at every elections and who became PM in december thanks to a bozo coup ? The politican who gives lessons ?

Abhisit is just pathetic. A pathetic clown, hostage and accomplice as well of a system that has turned hysterical and paranoid, in a strench of fin de regne.

Abhisit ? Yes We Can’t.

More than ever.