UPDATE 2008
Here is a list of the pending events that will shape the future of the country. The volatility is still high.
-Political situation
The country remains deeply divided, really polarized. Add to this reality, the matter of the royal succession and you get an amazing conundrum.
-New government
The People Power Party, ghost of Thaksin’s party, has won the elections of december 23 (although failing to get the absolute majority). That was a real slap in the face for the Junta. Their 15 months of government have basically solved nothing.
PPP has formed a coalition (with a majority of 315 seats on 480), led by Prime Minister Samak.
-Sword of Damocles
The fight continues… on the judicial field now. The Electoral Commission has asked the dissolution of 2 parties, members of the PPP’s coalition, for “electoral fraud”. The Constitution Court could take months to take a decision.
In another case, the PPP could actually face the same faith.
All those events fuel the uncertainty.
-Constitution
The PPP has started a process to amend the Constitution (designed by the Junta and approved by referendum in august 2007). Basically : they want to go back to the Constitution… of 1997. And it seems that the plan is to organize, just after, new general elections. Samak said it. Then denied. The point is : it makes no sense to amend the Constitution now… and then wait the end of the current government (4 years).
We could have a new… referendum too about the new charter.
-Thaksin
The ex Prime Minister is under fire, with a lot of charges and investigations against him. He came back to Thailand in february, after 18 months of exil, to defend himself.
He’s a liability for the stability of the country. He wants his revenge, he has the financial means, he’s still popular (the elections were a proof), even though he repeats, over and over, that he wants to stay out of politics…
-Royal succession
This is the most “taboo” issue in Thailand. This explains why all the public debates (if there are real ones) are totally biaised.
And this is probably the issue the most difficult to understand for foreigners.
However, it’s the key issue for the future of the country.
Basically, the King is 80 years old (december 2007). He’s going to pass away. This is not politics, nor disrespect, just nature…
Unfortunatly, he has many health issues (read here).
Thanks to the “lese majeste crime”, the Junta and thai authorities have instrumentalized the image of the King, as a leverage (or as a shield…).
Therefore, the thai society can’t speak about it. The taboo is total.
Who will succeed this great monarch ? King Bhumibol has been ruling the country for 60 years (!). He’s seen as a living god.
Yes indeed, for us, descendants of the French Revolution and The US Declaration of Independence, it’s difficult to understand. We have the Queen of England, and some Prince in Monaco… Quite a different level…
Anyway, on the paper, the succession is simple : the Crown Prince.
However, the Prince suffers of a rather… bad image. The thai people don’t like him.
The risk is high that the death of the King could “wake up” the figthing between many factions.
This is from my point of view the greatest risk for the future of Thailand.
And the problem is : no place for chance here.
It will happen. The only uncertainty is… when.
-Conflict in the South
Since the Coup, there is without a doubt an escalation of the conflict in the South. The rebels, insurgents, terrorists, militants whatever we call them have stepped up their actions. Target killings, schools burning, bombings, road side bombings continue.
It’s also a liability for the future. No one can believe than the problems in the South can be solved quickly. And there is always the risk that the militant would extend their operations… to Bangkok.
In january 2008, the conflict enters in its fifth year…
To contact me :
cthai2 (at) yahoo. com
Nice summary.
The last two on the list are the real problems for Thai’s.
Also, if Thaksin ever makes a comeback, the extent of his vindictive streak could be a worry.
Interesting
Yes the questin of succession when the old man dies…..will be interesting.
The Army made their move early enough by removing Thaksin and will stay in the political areana now.
Maybe the Crown Prince will hve an accident, when his daddy shuffles off this mortan coil, like his Uncle and they leave his toddler son as a regent until maturity!
If the King dies this year or next, I suspect the Princess will take over - not the Prince.
It will happen. The only uncertainty is… when.
The other uncertainty is “how”. HM The King in his wisdom could have indicated to the privy council that it is his wish to step down (abdicate) on his 80th birthday. The privy council had to make sure that a PM with certain republican leanings will not be in power when this occurs to prevent him from taking advantage of the situation, so the coup had to be staged in due time. And this could be the “December event bigger than an election” that Gen. Sonthi and PM Surayud have hinted at (being a possible cause for election delay). Everyone knows that succession while HMK is still alive will be much smoother and more peaceful. For dynastic reasons the Crown Prince will become the new regent.
Thanks for your message “Strictly Anonymous”.
Your hypothesis is indeed very interesting.
And it would of course solve many issues.
Anyway. Three month to wait. And see
I see you have added more things to worry about since my previous comment.
For clarification:
I was referring to Succession and the Southern Insurgency as the two biggest problems for Thai’s.
-> Hobby
Indeed. I keep the site updated.
After the elections, though, I need to revamp this page a little bit.
on the subject of the conflict in the south… i had a conversation with someone last year, a long-time expat, who was of the opinion that the southern conflict was being helped along directly by parties interested in stopping a shipping channel from being built across the isthmus of krah that would cut out the route now being used around the straits of malaka. pardon my spelling errors, please. i can’t remember (beer was involved) but i believe this person believed the malaysian gov’t was involved and was just fueling the fires for its own end.
don’t want to go off on a conspiracy rant, just wanted to get some feedback on this as it’s interesting and i haven’t been able to find any info. any ideas?
by the way, love the site. keep up the good work.
Many Thai people have begun to discuss this openly and fearlessly. I usually go to the gym every early morning for weight training. A TV is switched on for morning news programs, especially in the time the country mourns the passing of Princess Sister. Everybody in the gym, from the trainers to guests, just frequently talks about the succession like every daily topic. We are really afraid of what comes next, when and how. We feel totally helpless about it. Who would have that charisma and stature comparable to the current King to unite the country together?
I believe Thailand’s current crisis will not grow into a civil war but rather become a ‘Philippines II’ with chronic poverty, ever-growing income gap, rounds of economic crises, higher crime rates, failed education, political turbulence, etc.
Thaicrisis, thanks for starting this site.
-> Chinesethai : welcome on this blog. And thank you for your kind comments.
If thai people start to talk about those “taboo” issues, exchange ideas and criticize, then I think it’s a very positive beginning.
As for “Philippines II” it’s indeed a scenario that many people are afraid of.
This are remarks we should be worry about. Is Thailand on the way to become a second BURMA. Just read in “The Nation”:
… Suppression of activists in Burma normal: Samak
Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej Sunday described Burmese leader Senior General Than Shwe as being religious person and killings and suppressions in the neighbouring country were “normal’ things.
Speaking during his Samak’s Talk programe broadcast live on Channel 11, Samak said Burma is a Buddhist country.
“Killings and suppressions are normal there but we have to know the fact,” Samak said.
“And Senior Than Shwe practices meditation. He said he prays in the morning … and the country has been in peace and order.” …
If this is the way, Thailand is heading, we don’t need to worry about inflation, diesel price, porc and exchange rates. We only need to worry about Thailand becoming a right-wing dictatorship.
I was allways defending the thai way. But with this governement, I start be be scared. Hopefully the thai population stands up early enough to fight. And the middleclass stops talking and start acting, not only in Bangkok but across the country.
I find this very interesting and very real at the same time.I have been reading alot about the history of Thailand during the 1920s thru 1975. Being born in Thailand and growing up thinking that the woman I called mom was not indeed my mother at all. She has only told me bits and pieces about me,her, and life in Thailand when she was a child. She always said she has done so much she was ashamed of. I wanted to know what it was like during her era and the more I learned the more I understand things that I never would have until my curiosity and vivid memories of the country I was born. I know my mother always had pictures of the king and queen of Thailand in our house as do most Thai restraunts here in the U.S. Like everywhere else in the world people are corupted due to possibly due to poverty,lost of hope and fear. I would hate to see Thai’s battling each other. It hurts me to think about it.
Great Web Site!
Some random thoughts: Thailand has the possibility of becoming a moderately successful nation in S.E. Asia. But there are so many structural problems that they must face. Like they are doing in Burma and Laos, the Chinese are more than willing to come in and take over - bit by bit, but that does not help the Thais very much. Thailand needs to focus on their strengths which are tourism and agriculture and manufacturing. The King need to start on a smooth transition, and the government should make it’s markets and land ownership much more open to foreigners.
get tired of reading thai news every day… there IS no way out at the momement: either you’re PRO- or ANTI-thaksin.
when the king dies one day (wll happen one day, sorry, Thai people)?… smooth version of a burmese-style government..? or will Thais wake up to what is commonly referred to as, eh… “democracy”??
seriously: lack of education (think independent!) won’t help make things easier…
Its interesting, about the Royal succession. Indeed the Princess’s image is wayyy better than the Prince’s. I would hate to see Thailand in a huge civil war after the King dies, its definately shake the rest of SE Asia.