Stats : Consumer Price Index (CPI)

UPDATE
This post is dated june 2007.

To see the latest charts and datas for 2008, click here.

q1cpithai.jpg

If we compare the composition of the “basket” of goods and services (see my previous post), and their relative importance, of thai CPI and US CPI :

-The thai CPI has 36,04 % for “food and beverages”, against 14,9 % in the US.

-And 23,86 % for “housing”, against 42,69 % in the US.

😉

It allows us to understand that indexes with identical name are sometimes difficult to compare…

Anyway, back to the chart. What is interesting is the “headline”, AKA the plain index (the “core” excludes food/beverages and energy). The hike in 2006 was due to the explosion of energy price, compare to 2005.

On Q1 of 2007, the CPI goes down. However, watchout… oil remains a main issue in the world. With the tensions in middle east… we could have some bad surprises.

Another issue : the “lag”. When confronted to higher costs, some business may choose to… postpone an increase of their own prices… Because competition, because they may believe that the surge in costs is temporary, etc. It means that in 2007, we could have more inflation, fueled by the “lag” effect in 2006.

Datas on CPI in Thailand :
http://www.price.moc.go.th/price%5Fe/
http://www.bot.or.th/BOTHomepage/databank/EconData/EconFinance/tab77-1e.asp
Datas on CPI in the US :
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/home.htm


4 Responses to “Stats : Consumer Price Index (CPI)”


  1. 1 patiwat 21 June 2007 at 7:45 pm

    The poorer you are, the greater proportion of your consumption will be spent on food and beverages. The richer you are, the greater proportion will be spent on housing. The poor also spend relatively more of their income on energy. I thought these principles were true across nearly all economies. It is, for instance, why poverty is practically defined as earning insufficient income to procure 2,000 calories a day, or why the 1998 kerosene riots were intense enough to end 30 years of Suharto rule.

    Of course, you can’t really compare the baskets – but then again, what real insight were you really looking for in comparing them?

  2. 2 thaicrisis 22 June 2007 at 8:05 am

    You’re absolutly right.

    I just wanted to highlight the fact that if the name of the index is the same around the world (CPI), it’s difficult to make comparisons between countries.


  1. 1 How to curb inflation ? By asking the manufacturers to… delay prices hikes « Thailand Crisis Trackback on 8 October 2007 at 8:29 am
  2. 2 Chart : CPI per group, % of change y-o-y, per quarter « Thailand Crisis Trackback on 14 October 2007 at 6:15 am

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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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