Chart : CPI per group, % of change y-o-y, per quarter

cpi9.jpg

Here is an update of my chart about Consumer Price Index by Group, per quarter, with datas for Q3 2007.

Datas from the BOT (here).

We have one index (100 = 2002) per group, that allow to calculate inflation rate, over a certain period of time.
Headline, is the classic Price index. It contains 2 groups : Food/Beverage and Non Food/Non Beverage (simple 😉 )

Then we have the group Transport, and of course the famous Core (index in which we remove volatil items… like food and energy, that’s convenient to calculate… inflation).

How to read ? Headline Index for instance increased by 1,62 % in Q3 2007, compare to Q3 of 2006.

Now we can see that since Q3 of 2006 (Coup) the inflation is going down (in every group). The Junta was lucky.

But of course, due to the base effect and the recent hike in energy and other raw materials (many businesses in Thailand announced prices hikes)… it will be a different game next year !

Mechanically, with low indexes in 2007, the inflation rate in all groups (excepted maybe Core) will be higher in 2008.

If you are interested, you’ll find on the BOT data sheet, the indexes for the different items of each group (for instance “Rice and cereal products”, “Eggs and milk products”, etc.) to see their evolution.

Last thing, you’ll see the “weight” of every items and group, within the Headline (for instance, food/beverage counts for 36,1 % of the Headline index).

To read my article about the composition of these indexes, click here.

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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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