Chart : CPI at +7,6 % in may, year-on-year

The official report for CPI (Consumer Price Index) in may has been published (here).

The CPI increased 7,6 % in may at 126,2, compare to 116,4 in may 2007.

In the details, almost all the components increased, particularily food and transports of course (+11,8 % y-o-y for “food and beverage”. This item has a weight of 36,06 in the index).

2 items decreased : “ELECTRICITY, FUEL AND WATER SUPPLY” (-0,3 %) and “COMMUNICATION AND EQUIPMENTS” (-0,4 %).

Due to the base effect, and because it’s unlikely that prices would decrease in june, we can forecast a CPI for june at 7,6 % minimum.

But if the index increase 1 point (compare to may) that would lead to an increase of 8,4 % year-on-year…

In may, the index increased by 2,6 points compare to april.

1 Response to “Chart : CPI at +7,6 % in may, year-on-year”

  1. 1 Naphat 5 June 2008 at 4:39 am

    Interesting article from Morgan Stanley:

    “In Thailand, elevated commodity prices, coupled with domestic demand recovery, will likely raise the possibility of second-round pass-through. If oil prices rise to US$150/bbl and stay there for 4-5 months, we expect the central bank to raise policy rates by 100bp over the next six months compared with our current base case of 50bp hike. We believe that, over the next 6-12 months, domestic demand will remain healthy, as real rates should be accommodative even after the rate hike.”

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.

%d bloggers like this: