Chart : CPI at +7,6 % in may, year-on-year

The official report for CPI (Consumer Price Index) in may has been published (here).

The CPI increased 7,6 % in may at 126,2, compare to 116,4 in may 2007.

In the details, almost all the components increased, particularily food and transports of course (+11,8 % y-o-y for “food and beverage”. This item has a weight of 36,06 in the index).

2 items decreased : “ELECTRICITY, FUEL AND WATER SUPPLY” (-0,3 %) and “COMMUNICATION AND EQUIPMENTS” (-0,4 %).

Due to the base effect, and because it’s unlikely that prices would decrease in june, we can forecast a CPI for june at 7,6 % minimum.

But if the index increase 1 point (compare to may) that would lead to an increase of 8,4 % year-on-year…

In may, the index increased by 2,6 points compare to april.

1 Response to “Chart : CPI at +7,6 % in may, year-on-year”


  1. 1 Naphat 5 June 2008 at 4:39 am

    Interesting article from Morgan Stanley:

    http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2008/20080529-Thu.html#anchor6412

    “In Thailand, elevated commodity prices, coupled with domestic demand recovery, will likely raise the possibility of second-round pass-through. If oil prices rise to US$150/bbl and stay there for 4-5 months, we expect the central bank to raise policy rates by 100bp over the next six months compared with our current base case of 50bp hike. We believe that, over the next 6-12 months, domestic demand will remain healthy, as real rates should be accommodative even after the rate hike.”


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