Chart : GDP Q1 2008, growth of 6 % but…

Datas for GDP Q1 2008 have been published by the NESDB (tables and report in PDF available). Time to update our charts (sorry I’m late).

First, the chart with 3 components : Private Consumption expenditures, Government expenditures and Gross Fixed Capital Formation.

The growth year on year is 6 %.

Impressive. I can hear the people “I told you, there is no crisis, the growth is strong”.

Well… sure… But we need to go deeper.

Bingo. Big jump at 51 billions THB… It contributed for 2,6 points to the growth of GDP. Net exports are decreasing a lot.

The best part. We have 2 ways to calculate GDP : current prices (nominal) and constant prices (real). We use of course real GDP to calculate growth year-on-year.
How do we calculate real GDP ? By removing inflation. What is “inflation” ? A price index (for consumers, we have the Consumer Price Index) and a base year (in Thailand, the base year is 1988).

On Q1, the deflator was 4 % ( 5 % for Q4 2007).

Usually, deflator and CPI evolve in parallel. Here is a chart.

The divergence is obvious on Q1. The low deflator is a statistical glitch… On Q2, it will be higher. It’s a certainty.

And the rule is very simple : the higher the deflator is… the lower the real GDP is, and the lower is the growth year-on-year.

A low deflator boosts GDP figures.

I should add that the net exports component (exports-imports) is going to be crushed on Q2 because… yes you’ve guessed : trade deficit due to oil. Therefore, its contribution to growth will be lower, lower than the 0,6 point on Q1.

What do we have left ? Government expenditures. It will go probably up, but not enough to compensate. Then, Private consumption and Gross Fixed Capital… both are going to be crusched too by the crisis (the first effects should be seen on Q2, and the decrease will accelerate on Q3 and Q4).

Its’s logic : growth of GDP on Q2 will be lower than 6 %. And Q3 and Q4 even worse.

Therefore, the official (government, BOT and all the members of the Boiler Room) target of a GDP growth of 5,6 % for the year is unlikely to be reached.

Rendez-vous on august 25, for the datas for Q2 ! 😉

2 Responses to “Chart : GDP Q1 2008, growth of 6 % but…”

  1. 1 MSB 24 June 2008 at 7:31 am

    So I guess the $1.3bn trade account surplus in May is putting a dint in your projection??

  2. 2 thaicrisis 24 June 2008 at 7:42 am

    Not really. Because may is not Q2… 😉

    April was bad. And I bet june is going to be red too.

    Why ? Read here :

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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.

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