Chart, imports of oil : value and volume until april 2008 and statistical glitch

Here is an update of my chart, with datas for april.

(Source EPPO, Table 2.1-4).

The drop in april (from 944 000 barrels per day to 830 000) was certainly caused by Songkran holiday. As for the value, EPPO says that the average price of imported crude oil in april was 105,35 USD per barrel (versus 99,11 in march).

As you know, we have to watch carefully the energy bill, because of the surge of oil prices… and the effects on the trade balance… therefore on the THB (currency). Everything is linked… Particularily when we speak about oil.

Anyway. I would like to add that the datas provided by EPPO and the Customs Department (compiled by the Bank Of Thailand) are different.

For instance in march, EPPO gives a total value of 2,9 billions USD for import of crude oil… While the Customs state 2,4 billions (roughly 13 % less) ! 9 months over 12, EPPO’s figures were higher than Customs.

And the exchange rates THB-USD are different too… ! And worse, even if you take in account the different exchange rates… you stil get different total in THB and USD… It prooves that the core of the problem is… volume.

I guess both have the same definition of a barrel of crude oil… I hope so… πŸ˜‰ But for some reasons, the EPPO and Customs, both official departments, don’t have the same set of datas… Frustrating.

Here is a small chart about the value in USD of imports of crude oil (crude oil only), for both.

And it shows that one of the problem of the oil issue… is datas. I mean BP, EIA, IEA… prestigious and powerfull sources of infos… compile datas for production, consumption, imports, exports… for all the countries… provided by all the countries… after thoses datas are studied, charted, analyzed by everybody, peak oil believers and non-believers, government, professionals etc. …

My point : some data sets are not reliable. And worse : may vary from time to time.

Bottom line : when you read that “Global oil consumption grew by 1 mb/d in 2007” (source BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008), you have to understand that there is a serious… fog around the math magic !

Okay, okay, what is important is the trend. Even if your data set is flawed, you can still make valid observations with variations.

But, if we start speaking about absolute numbers (like consumption was 1 million barrel per day higher in 2007 compare to 2006)… I mean… we need to be careful… nobody did actually and really count those barrels… πŸ˜‰

Sounds stupid to say but I can’t find any clearer way to say it. πŸ˜‰

The oil issue is just too burning, too essential, with too many geopolitics and economics links… it’s impossible to believe that all the datas are genuine and/or right.

There is always a fog around the datas whether it’s deliberate or not.

1 Response to “Chart, imports of oil : value and volume until april 2008 and statistical glitch”

  1. 1 Bookmarks about Geopolitics Trackback on 15 December 2008 at 6:45 am

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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.

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