Chart, VAT collection, per quarter : going up

Long time we didn’t look at the VAT (Value Added Tax). Here is an update.

Why the VAT ? Because it’s a good indicator of consumption…

We can see that on Q2, VAT collection reached a total of 127 billions THB, a 16 % increase compare to Q2 last year.

After the “turbulences” between Q3 2005 and Q2 2007 (declining growth, and even negative growth in Q3 2006)… we are going up again, since Q4 2007.

And the pace is accelerating on 2008.

One point should be made to nuance the whole picture : inflation. ๐Ÿ˜‰

With a high inflation (prices going up), the VAT is following. It’s mechanical. At least at the beginning.

4 Responses to “Chart, VAT collection, per quarter : going up”

  1. 1 Halfaboy 7 September 2008 at 1:00 pm

    Inflation could nuance the whole picture but also an increase in the number of companies contributing. It could be that due to a stricter control mechanism more companies are doing what they should do.

  2. 2 ThaiCrisis 7 September 2008 at 1:58 pm

    In theory, sure.

    But I’m not aware of any specific campaign from the Revenue Dpt.

    I think that the main factor is the official (CPI) inflation that went from 4,3 % in january to 8,9 % in june.

    Plus, let’s be honest, a hike from the private consumption (seen on GDP figures).

    The Gvt injected free money with various programs to “boost” the economy.

    All in all, all those facts have contributed to increase the VAT collection.

    The point is : this can’t be sustainable from my point of view.
    After inflation, deflation will come. After the tax cuts party, the goodies… comes the payback time : frugality.

    For sure, VAT collection will be a very good indicator of this reversal.

    But right now… let’s enjoy the party. Because it won’t last. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  3. 3 FDL 8 September 2008 at 12:10 pm

    Talking about that Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac party that almost went on forever but came crashing with a mother of all hangover: US$1.5 trillion in mortgage debts now NATIONALIZED by the US government.

    That is trillions . . . you know! of the unimaginable never ending zeroooooooooooooooes!

    (There was a time not very long ago that bankruptcies in the millions would shock and scandalize. But these days . . the norm is multi-billion dollar losses and multi-billion dollar bankruptcies. And ewith the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac the first trillion-dollar bank bankruptcy. Now that is what I can confidently label INFLATION!)

  4. 4 ThaiCrisis 8 September 2008 at 12:42 pm

    Oh la la… if we start to speak about Fannie and Freddie… ๐Ÿ˜‰
    Indeed, it’s huge.

    And it’s even bigger to see the stock markets rallying today… And the dollar going up.

    It’s surreal.

    I think it’s basically because people don’t understand the scale of the issue here.

    It goes way beyond (in term of principles and… numbers as well) our daily preoccupations…

    Anyway. I still believe that this mega-hyper window-dressing operation will collapse. Eventually.

    I continue to believe that everything (all those bailouts) is done to “hold” until the US elections. But after ? Boum.

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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.

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