GDP Q2 revised down in USA… and forecast revised down in Thailand


I wrote end of august :

The strong growth in Q2 in the US is an illusion. The name of the game will be different on Q3 and Q4, exactly like in Thailand (and probably the entire world).

It’s the deflator issue (not only) like in Thailand (read here).

On month after, guess what ? GDP for Q2 was revised. Down.

The annual rate of 2.8 percent was down from a preliminary estimate of 3.3 percent issued last month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Measures of inflation were higher than previously projected. Personal consumption, trade and business investment contributed less to gross domestic product than the prior estimate, the report showed. (Bloomberg)

The manipulation is gross. Q2 was supposed to be the holly quarter when american people received a check from the Treasury.

Same policy (but on a different scale) followed by Samak’s government, and all their “stimulus packages“, what I call the “Dildo policies” (tax cut on diesel, free water, free electricity, free buses, trains etc.)

In the US, the effects lasted 3 months. In Thailand, it’s going to be 6. Great. 😉

By the way :

Economic growth is expected to reach 5.1% this year, down from previous forecasts of 5.6% because of the global economic slowdown, the Fiscal Policy Office said yesterday. (Bangkok Post)

5,1 % ? it’s going to be tight. Q3 will be bad. And Q4 very bad.

Recession has started in Europe, USA, Japan… Exports will suffer. And exports were the main growth engine in Thailand.

The full negative effect will be felt in Q1 2009.

2009 is already a lost year, as far as growth is concerned…

Game over.

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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.

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