Chavalit drops the mask : “The only way out is a putsch”

It wasn’t long… General Chavalit, who was nominated Deputy Prime Minister a few weeks ago, with the difficult task to “negociate” with the PAD, and who resigned tuesday after the incidents… is now dropping the mask.

“There is no other way out. A House dissolution cannot solve the problem. The problem can be solved by three institutions – the monarchy, which remains politically neutral, the military, which appears to be not interested in intervening, and the government, which stays above the problem.

“So I see [the answer in] a putsch. After the military steps in, power should immediately be returned to the people and an interim government can be formed in which every party takes part.

“Tell him [Gen Anupong] not to be afraid. After he does it [stage a coup], he should pull out and let the people take it from there,” he said. (Bangkok Post)

Chavalit is right : the situation is totally blocked.

But Chavalit is wrong : a military intervention won’t solve the problem. We saw the disastrous effects of the last coup d’etat, in september 2006, with an inane junta, and an inane government (Surayud), a new constitution, and new elections “back to square one” in december 2007 with the victory of the PPP.

So how what failed in 2006 could succeed in 2008 ?

More than ever, the real issue is the royal succession.

The political forces, right, left, middle, can’t say it, can’t talk about it, so everybody is lying.

But it’s the only, the core factor.

6 Responses to “Chavalit drops the mask : “The only way out is a putsch””

  1. 1 chinesethai 10 October 2008 at 6:54 am


    One should not draw such popular conclusion from the failure of Sep Coup d’Etat that a military intervention won’t solve the problem. The failure did not come from Thaksin being formidable power among the poor but from the indecisiveness of the coup makers to root out Thaksin’s cronies harshly.

    This has already been posing danger to the nation as the succession looms while Thaksin is still at large in London.

    I boycotted the 09-23-2007 general election that coward Surayud declared and went for a retreat in Mainland China for months.

    I see Thailand badly needs another coup – a coup that will not only carry Thailand through this critical transition period but also bring in strong leadership with political wills for the country’s good as South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan have experienced.

    But on the other extreme, a bad coup will bring Thailand down to another daunting scenario like in the Philippines, Indonesia, Cambodia or, worse, Myanmar.

    Cambodia may provide another example. Former Khmer Rouge militiaman Hun Sen is instrumental in ridding the Cambobian Royal Palace’s power while giving himself the title of Somdej (on par with a royal) and endless wealth for his family and cronies. Yes, Cambodia is booming but the boom is illusive. Did you follow Cambodia’s recent election? This is one of Thaksin’s wishlists.

    ThaiCrisis, you have said before that Thailand lacks good leader.

  2. 2 ThaiCrisis 10 October 2008 at 7:34 am

    indecisiveness” is rather an understatement… and to achieve what ? the victory of the PPP last december ! Talk about a great plan !

    So could a new coup be the solution ?

    As you said, eventually it’s a matter of men.

    My point : if another General Sondhi and another General Surayud make a coup, then you can be sure that… it would be totally pointless and counterproductive.

    Honestly, it’s really difficult to foresee any workable solution.

    I’m afraid to bother people by repeating myself over and over, but the uncertainty will remain until the royal succession is settled.

    But I would like to add that maybe this political fight will be the less of our problems in the future… we should be afraid of the ongoing financial crisis, and the fallouts.

    I will post later in the afternoon a new chart about bank deposits (cash on hand) of businesses in Thailand. And the trend is worrying on the last 3 months (june to august)…

  3. 3 chinesethai 10 October 2008 at 7:59 am

    Well…again if we resort to general election, the problem cannot be solved either. Plus, more innocent civilians would be either killed or amputated as seen for the past days. Another coup will be very risky, yes, but it is a live-or-die situation.

    You are not bothering people by emphasizing on the inevitable Royal Succession. It’s real.

    Do you think this situation will be less of a problem in the future? I believe otherwise. It will be more severe because the global financial crisis will complicate it. 2 Tsunamis from both outside and within. That you pointed out about the fallouts even strengthens the idea that another coup is just not necessary but essential!

  4. 4 Bedwyr 10 October 2008 at 10:04 am

    “…again if we resort to general election, the problem cannot be solved either.”

    Yep. 100% correct. The Bangkok elite will keep forcing elections until the poor get it right.

    “…But it’s [the succession] the only, the core factor.”

    Yep, also true.

    The Bangkok elite will lose their totem and they absolutely *must* regain power before that happens.

    Methnks the end-game approacheth. And it isnt going to be very much fun. The haves and the have-nots in Thailand are due for a colossal shitfight.

    SET has lost 50% in value in 2 weeks. I wonder how secure the feudal barons are feeling right now. Much as the dinosaurs did I suspect.


    btw. Were the top man to die, how long would it take for it to be announced? Bearing in mind the Thai mantra of ‘delay and double-speak’ in the context of the current perilous state of the politics in Thailand, I suspect it would be a little while.

  5. 5 chinesethai 10 October 2008 at 10:30 am

    Were the top man to die, rumour would have worked itself out. 😛

  6. 6 fall 10 October 2008 at 1:56 pm

    When people started to listen to Chavalit, that’s when you know common sense gone out the window…

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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.

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