Chart, credit (banks) : +17,5 % in august, year on year

(Source BOT, table FI_CB_015_S3)

No credit crunch in Thailand ! šŸ˜‰

The outstanding total credit from all commercial banks to businesses reached 3814 billions THB in august. That’s a 11,7 % increase compared to august 2007.

The total for all type of debtors (gvt+state companies, businesses and individuals, plus “funds”, “domestic banks and financial institutions” and “non-residents” not shown on my chart) grew 17,5 % year on year.

Watch out : this is the outstanding total. So it’s difficult to say if it’s new credit, or an increase of NPL (people or businesses take new credits to payback the old ones, or payback late etc.).

However, we can have some hints : look my other chart about deposits and businesses

On one hand, businesses reduce their total deposits at commercial banks, and on the other hand their total credit is increasing… It doesn’t smell good.

2 Responses to “Chart, credit (banks) : +17,5 % in august, year on year”

  1. 1 chinesethai 16 October 2008 at 5:04 am

    Your chart is until Aug 2008 only. The giant earthquake happened in the following month right after the falls of Lehman Brothers, AIG, American banks, then Europe. All are our big customers.

    The Thai economy is resilient not because we have a functioning government (in fact we have none) but because most Thais, especially businesses and the middleclass, have learned from the 1997 financial crisis. But there will be some Thaksinomics believers that are going to get hurt badly in light of dramatic slowdown.

  2. 2 ThaiCrisis 16 October 2008 at 6:15 am

    I do with what I have.

    There is a time lag for the datas published by the Bank of Thailand, from 1 to 3 months, depending on the datas sets.

    In any case, it’s clear that the turning point was september…

    Financial crisis, lower consumption in the US, in Europe etc… Therefore we should soon start to see the first fallouts.

    The first datas for september’s exports will be published around 21 october. And then the details on october 31.

    Fasten your seatbelts…

    Last point : don’t bet too much on the “resilience”… the only growth engine in Thailand has been exports… If exports take a hit… it will have serious consequences on the whole economy.

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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.

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