Bank Of Thailand revises down growth projections for 2008… and for 2009

I wrote in july, after the BOT revised down its growth forecast from 4,8/6 to 4,8/5,8 %, “those projections could be lowered again “.

Three months after, here we are.

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has decreased the country’s economic growth estimate by 0.50-0.80 per cent for this year and next year, citing persistent domestic political turmoil and the economic crisis in the United States as key reasons for the decision.

The central bank had revised its economic growth projection downward to 4.3-5 per cent this year and 3.8-5 per cent next year from the 4.8-5.8 per cent and 4.3-5.8 per cent targeted earlier. (TNA)

To set a high estimation of 5 % for next year is of course totally laughable… It’s obviously more important to save face than to prepare the country for the economic downturn.

Consumer, investor, and tourist confidence alike have been undermined by the ongoing political disturbances and the global economic slowdown.

Under the circumstances, the overall export and investment sectors have been affected.

That’s a gross lie. And it’s precisely why GDP growth in 2009 is going to be much lower : exports have not been affected yet ! The full slowdown will be felt next year.

And exports are the main growth engine for the country.

The economic problems, like I repeat over and over on this blog, will be compounded by the political crisis. Take one simple example : mega-projects... They were supposed to boost investment… Well… they are nowhere to be seen.

The truth is : we have no government… no proper ministers… and they don’t even have a place to work : the government’s house is still occupied ! 😉

7 Responses to “Bank Of Thailand revises down growth projections for 2008… and for 2009”

  1. 1 MSB 20 October 2008 at 5:27 am

    The bank I work for has a 1.6% GDP growth forcast for 09

  2. 2 ThaiCrisis 20 October 2008 at 6:34 am

    Thanks for the info MSB.

    1,6 % would be VERY low.

    Even as a super bear, I find it very low.

    I remember, you were optimistic a few months earlier, right ? 😉

  3. 3 l prao 20 October 2008 at 6:41 am

    Thailand has been running on empty for months now – no leader, no government, no law-and-order, no democracy and as tc pointed out, no seat (government office) of power. Most countries have been looking for that magic “minimum government” for decades. Thailand it seems is that magic ‘model’ for other governments to follow.

    Thailand has only two choices: if it wants a democratically elected government then it must make do with Thaksin-puppets w/ the fugitive Thaksin running the show by remote control from London. The other choice is a non-elected government favored by the anti-Thaksin camp.

    But the Thai economy will grow despite all the political uncertainties and the global economic turmoil raging – – and so they say.

  4. 4 chinesethai 20 October 2008 at 7:32 am

    You may not be focusing on the right one. What more laughable than BOT is Finance Minister Suchart Tadathamrongvej said publicly that he wants to see Baht depreciating 4-5% further against US dollar.

    This guy has never had experience managing any organization but made 3-million baht/month livelihood on just making daily appearance on the cable TV praising the magic of “Thaksinomics” and sitting in numerous SOE board meetings.

    BOT Governor Tarisa may not be the smartest one on earth. She might appear clumsy sometimes but at least she has some hands-on experience. Our Pro-Thaksinomics Finance Minister has NONE.

  5. 5 ThaiCrisis 20 October 2008 at 8:34 am

    Indeed ChineseThai, I just saw the news, and I fell off my chair.

    This guy is irresponsible. More on that later.

  6. 6 Rockderk the Great 21 October 2008 at 4:22 am

    As you say, Thailand has no functioning government and it’s not about to get one any time soon. Which means the Police can run amok and consolidate their grip on organized crime as never before. I agree that next year should be a doozy for thai exporters, all up to their necks in debt as it is. Solution: Royal pardon for the Shin clan. A new National holiday -Sanook Day- when trucks drive through each village throwing money out as they go. T-man heads a new party -the Thai Rak Sanook Party with a platform that every Sanook Day, the fiscal budget is thrown out of the trucks, thereby evenly distributing the country’s wealth. The police force is disbanded with local militas responsible to each village. Thailand annexes Cambodia, declares it a national park and then builds the world’s largest casino complex at Angkor Wat. There, that should do it.

  1. 1 The wetbacks have landed, GDP fallout and temple crap… at The FARANG Speaks 2 Much Trackback on 20 October 2008 at 4:30 am

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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.

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