Are thai exports falling… by 30 % ?

Those people drive me crazy : unable to write something clear, that makes sense.

After “we will have a growth of 5 % next year”, after “let’s devaluate the THB” and after the tasty “we are insulated”… now it’s : exports are falling by 30 % !

Talk about a U-Turn.

The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) warned that Thailand’s export output has plunged 30 percent and the slump could prolong till the beginning of 2009, which could leave up to one million people unemployed in the industrial sector.

FTI deputy chairman Thaveekij Jaturajarernkul said after the meeting with FTI provincial chiefs nationwide that the industrial sector may cut 10 to 15percent of employees, or approximately 900,000 to one million people out of about six million in total. Around 700,000 new graduates would also have more difficulties in finding jobs each year, he noted.

This is due to the global economic recession, and many industrial segments of the country have experienced lower sale orders by about 30 percent from the United States, the European Union and Japan.

“Many factories have lifted their overtime (OT) and reduced the number of workdays from six to five. Some factories have to lay off 10 percent of their staff, and the consequences should be more apparent by January 2009,” Mr Thaveekij said. (Bangkok Post)

The point is : exports ARE NOT DOWN, at least not in september. Not yet.

So does the FTI have some preliminary figures for october ? Is the president of FTI having a nervous breakdown ? Or is it a translation issue from Bangkok Post ?

We need exactness.

Bottom line : the Bank of Thailand will publish exports datas for september on october 31. And we will get figures for october… on november 30. Until then, we shall remain cautious.

4 Responses to “Are thai exports falling… by 30 % ?”

  1. 1 L Prao 28 October 2008 at 8:39 am

    There is an explanation Thai Crisis. The FTI are making their dire warnings on the basis of their forward export order at hand, which I suspect is bare or empty. Meaning without the export orders, imminent plant close-downs and lay-offs are imminent, if not already ongoing.

    The exports currently being reported by authorities for September, or October, or even coming November are of OLD orders merely being fulfilled but getting no reorders, we must suspect.

  2. 2 MSB 28 October 2008 at 9:14 am

    Nar its just the FTI talking out of its arse again.

    Remember they were the ones moaning like little girls in 06 when the baht was going up and forced the BOT into capital controls. They have no idea what the level of exports but they like to make headlines now and then to justify the membership fees they get.

  3. 3 eurothai 29 October 2008 at 2:19 pm

    Even I export to Europe and can feel the crisis around here and there. The ‘officials’ try to do everything to go on.

    Except for a visa to Holland for my biggest supplier to get more orders. After all the forms and clearence, they still refuse. How we can make go better if even the ‘officials’ don’t cooporate?

  4. 4 Hoktula 2 November 2008 at 11:26 pm

    Financial Collapse Smashes SEA’s Physical Production

    November 1, 2008 (LPAC)– Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the world’s three biggest rubber producers that supply 70 percent of world output, agreed to cut production by 210,000 tons next year by felling trees, in an effort to boost prices from three-year lows. The countries will also reduce tapping. Rubber prices have plunged 51 percent from a 28-year peak in June.

    The plan to cut down old trees will cover an area of 169,000 hectares (420,000 acres) in the three countries, with 64,000 hectares in Thailand, 55,000 in Indonesia and 50,000 in Malaysia.

    ( )

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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.

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