“The real impact on the Thai economy will become visible after November”

Good. After the denial… we start to see here and there the wings of common sense… In september, it seems that export were still holding up. Normal. Lag effect. We even had a trade surplus… But the first fallouts should be visible I think on october results.

The coming crisis is really the big problem (for the Thai economy),” said Dusit Nontanakorn, the chamber’s vice-chairman. “The government’s current economic stimulus measures are not potent enough to address and curb the possible impact. They sound like using aspirin to treat cancer.

The impact on the country’s tourism has already been felt. We expect exports will start falling from next month onward for the United States, Europe and Japan. New markets will follow course, especially the Middle East as the oil price falls. The real impact on the Thai economy will become visible after November.”

Businesses are urged to prepare for the coming crisis by shifting their production strategy, he said.

“As consumption freezes, those engaged in producing high-end products need to shift to medium-end to stay afloat,” said Mr Dusit. “Those producing low-end products could get into big trouble, as they will directly compete with low-cost products from China.”

Pramon Sutivong, the chamber’s chairman, said the impact would likely be more severe than expected, but the effect on industries would vary by sector.

Unlike Thailand’s financial crisis in 1997, this new crisis will affect all the real sectors,” he said. (Bangkok Post)

10 Responses to ““The real impact on the Thai economy will become visible after November””

  1. 1 Bob 28 October 2008 at 5:59 am

    Did you get the import/export numbers for September yet?


  2. 2 chinesethai 28 October 2008 at 6:18 am


    It is already visible!!! Most manufacturing businesses or those along the supply chain that I knew, including mine, have made big losses on the inventory and are experiencing sales volume diving. Moreover each sales is being made at loss due to falling market price of the inventory across the board (iron, silver, copper, aluminum).

    The only common advantage that insulates us (for now) from the crisis is that we are much much less leveraged than in 1997. The worst we could do is laying off workers and shutting down production.

    It is our luck that we did not follow Thaksinomics, which encouraged maximum, short-term profit based on highly leveraged investments. We have learned to “decouple” ourselves from all kinds of politics.

    Most Anti-Thaksin poor who march with PAD and who are against personal debt creation encouraged by Thaksinomics and instead for less leveraged, sufficiency economy will survive. So…….the very people who are going to take the most serious hit will be the Pro-Thaksin poor.

  3. 3 ThaiCrisis 28 October 2008 at 6:44 am

    Well we had a rather strange article published in Nation, based on SCBS Economic Research (?).


    Nothing else in the press.

    Trade surplus of 133 millions USD.

    So… I wait for october 31 to have the details from the BOT.

  4. 4 L Prao 28 October 2008 at 7:10 am

    Thailand’s bourse is hemmorhaging heavily, SET index cut in half to below 400. Siam Cement share price is below Baht 100 . . . unbelievable! ‘How deep is your love’ for Thai equity shares will be tested by more bottoms in weeks to come.

  5. 5 chinesethai 28 October 2008 at 8:55 am

    But I love Thai equity shares now ……… a lot and more than ever. 🙂

  6. 6 ray 28 October 2008 at 11:22 am

    right now people are concerned with the political crisis. most cannot even begin to comprehend whats ahead. 2009 is a very scary year for thailand. just couple of months back the government said we will be mildly affected… ? thats the most ridiculous statement ever. right now the banks are not even disclosing how much they have lost in paper trade.

  7. 7 Gloomy Observer 28 October 2008 at 2:22 pm

    Some of Thaksin’s “lever up” policies would have made things much worse here – true. But ultimately, the other idea of boosting domestic consumption is the road to go down. But that can’t be truly done long-term without MASSIVE reform to boost productivity. And no-one wants to grasp THAT nettle, PPP or PAD…

  8. 8 ThaiCrisis 28 October 2008 at 2:27 pm

    Indeed. If “boost domestic consumption” means giving away free money to buy more cars (that will burn imported fuels) and other imported goods… then it’s surely the best way to go down.

  9. 9 thaichris 28 October 2008 at 11:59 pm

    And the governement not only sit and do nothing to support the development but the even plan to hinder modernisation. One example is the access to the global data highway. In Thailand a monopoly supplier provides the gateway to the international WEB. Every communication via INTERNET goes through that little hole provided by CAT TELECOM. And as they have the monopoly, they don’t intend to increase the speed. INTERNET access is the lifeline of a modern economy. But instead of increasing the quality of the data highway, the governement comes up with idea to censor and slow down the access. They intend to:

    B500m firewall may block 1,000 websites

    The Information and Communications Technology Ministry is to introduce an internet gateway system to block websites containing lese majeste content. ICT Minister Mun Patanotai will also hold a meeting with webmasters today to discuss measures to suppress lese majeste material.

    The gateway system, which could cost between 100 and 500 million baht, could also be used to block other websites considered inappropriate, such as those of terrorist groups or selling pornography.

    However, the ministry will focus first on websites with content deemed insulting to the Thai monarchy, Mr Mun said.

    Ministry officials are looking into about a thousand websites, he said.

    Mr Mun said the ministry has been working with the National Intelligence Agency and the police in cracking down on these sites.

  10. 10 Bedwyr 29 October 2008 at 6:29 am

    Thai National Intelligence Agency?

    Now there’s a concept…


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.

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