Bad omen : Japan’s exports fell the most in almost seven years

Japan’s exports declined at the fastest pace in almost seven years in October as the intensifying global financial crisis stifled sales of cars and electronics.

Exports, the main engine of Japan’s economic growth in the past six years, fell 7.7 percent from a year earlier, the biggest drop since December 2001, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted an 8 percent drop. […] (Bloomberg)

Why it’s bad ? Because Japan is an important trade partner of Thailand (imports and exports as well, look the chart).

But not only… Japan is also an important industrial actor in Thailand. An historical one. Think about the car industry… And many other…

So if the japanese economy suffers (shrinking demand and investments)… Thailand should follow…

The thai gvt will release the first data for october’s exports/imports in a few days… (friday or monday)… Stay tuned.

4 Responses to “Bad omen : Japan’s exports fell the most in almost seven years”


  1. 1 chinesethai 21 November 2008 at 1:37 am

    Despite not involved directly, I too am worried about the fallout from Japan.

    When you talk about Thailand’s property boom, it is mostly about condos and office spaces in central Bangkok. But look…factory and warehouse spaces for rent have sprung up in the past 7 years in the outskirt of Bangkok. I am shaken because I am involved in the business.

  2. 2 ThaiCrisis 21 November 2008 at 7:23 am

    -CT : you should do like… soon everybody else will do : push the pause button for a while.

    Unless you’re a kamikaze, a gambler who is about to choose between red and black… the only rational position now is to wait.

    And this is true for all sectors.

    Wait a little bit to see where the crisis is going to lead us, how the crisis is going to grow. Because right now we don’t have enough data. We are in the black swimming pool.

    More time = more data.

    It’s like the stock market : every week we are going down. Every week, some people call for a bottom… And then the drop continues.

    It’s classic behaviour : we are afraid to miss the beginning to the famous rebound

    So what ? It’s like Pascal’s Wager : if you miss the beginning then you will loose some profit. But if it was a false start and the market continues to fall, then you’ll loose nothing.

    From a psychological point of view, we are still addicted, like a drug, to a bull market. A fall is an “accident”… What a mistake…

    Anyway, this is ultimatly what a recession is about : compulsory pause.
    After years of growth on stereoids and new projects everywhere… we need a freaking pause. We need to take time to assess and analyse the situation, to cut the rotten trees… Time will come to plant new ones : but later.

    So don’t be stressed : you can’t fight, can’t go against such global trend.

  3. 3 ThaiCrisis 21 November 2008 at 11:22 am

    You should have a look at this chart… It helps to put things… into perspectives…. 😉

    http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/11/four-bad-bears.html

  4. 4 chinesethai 21 November 2008 at 1:13 pm

    Thanks, TC.

    The speed of information may help sink the markets quicker. And, hopefully, it may help them to recover quicker too.

    Also…

    Today Nikon Thailand located in Ayudhya announces that they are going to lay off up to 5,000 employees!

    I had never heard of a Japanese company laying a large number of Thai workers off in my life until now.


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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