Export growth at six-year low in october

The first data for exports in october have been released.

15,26 billions USD, against 15,86 billions in september. That’s an increase of 5,2 % year on year (compared to october 2007).

We have to go back to july 2002 to find a lower year-on-year growth (4,69 %). Here is the chart.

growthex

Major export goods such as agricultural and agro-industrial products, particularly rice and frozen and processed shrimp and chicken, held up.

However, exports of electronic products and parts dropped by 4.2 per cent, electrical appliances fell by 16 per cent, and furniture and parts decreased by 3.9 per cent. (Nation)

Meanwhile, imports rose 21,6 % y-o-y to 15,85 billions USD, resulting in a trade deficit of 558,7 millions.

(Those figures are total exports, but not in BOP sense. Details will be published by the Bank Of Thailand on november 30. I will update then all my charts, along with trade balance, etc.)

So is it a glitch ? Or the beginning of a new trend ?

it’s unlikely that Thailand could escape a slowdown of its exports… and therefore a slowdown of its GDP growth (because exports are the main growth engine).

In any case, the “peak exports” seems to be behind us. The golden times of strong growth (like +43 % in july!) are… over.

(read also this article, about the main Thailand’s customers… falling into recession)

2 Responses to “Export growth at six-year low in october”


  1. 1 fall 24 November 2008 at 3:05 pm

    People got to eat, but new cars, digital camera, or sofa can wait. With global downturn and US officially heading/in recession, the decrease in export is unavoidable.

    But what is driving up the import? Oil and iron price had gone down.

  2. 2 chinesethai 25 November 2008 at 1:58 am

    I am sensing that investors and business people are already used to series after series of bad news about corporate bankruptcies in the US and falling export numbers now….unless some extremely unprecedented, unanticipated bad news emerge. Business operators have disregarded deceptively optimistic outlook report churned out by this useless government. They have prepared for the worst. So no matter how bad the numbers are out, they are meaningless. The sentiment will be like a sulky man until we see the bottom.


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Thailand Crisis

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But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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