Bermuda Triangle : Airport, parties dissolution case and King’s birthday

The trap is closing, inexorably.

We are in a Bermuda Triangle… And all sanity could just disappear inside.

Consider those items, and the time frame :

-the airport siege (can’t drag on too long)
-the parties dissolution case, end of the process december 2, then the verdict could come quickly after
-King’s birthday, december 5, a sacred day

Those are the angles. So let’s see how the different players can occupy this space.

GOVERNMENT
-it waits, it looses all credibility, and then it could collapse (PPP dissolution)
-assault on the airport : bloodshed. High risk of a coup.
-they wait but they launch the “red shirts” (PPP’s supporters) for the assault : bloodshed. Even greater risk of a coup (the Army would love to appear like a referee to separate 2 boxers on the ring)

So basically, they are screwed. Univocally screwed. I apologize for my bad language.

PAD
-they wait, and they can wait much longer, they win. At that point, they absolutly don’t care about the support they could have or not within the population. That’s not the point. And it has never been. (this is the mistake analysts make regarding the PAD, they see it like a “normal” political force.)
-they are attacked, they win by martyrdom and the army intervenes.

So basically, and contrary to what many people say, until now I see the PAD as a total winner, both on tactical and strategic levels.

Plus they have the support of powerful people. It’s not a mystery anymore.

Plus they enjoy the very powerful “Gandhi’s effect“. Who is going to beat old women and men, children, sitting on the ground, with yellow shirts, singing ? In front of the cameras ?

Look the “torrents of emotions” after the woman died during october’s incidents.

The PAD was a red-herring, designed to drive crazy the elected government with agitprop , reduce its action capacity, prevent them to change the constitution… a diversion operation, while the serious stuff was going on behind (parties dissolution, actions against Thaksin etc.).

For that matter, I repeat, it’s a brillant success.

ARMY
-they want to stage a coup, but… are afraid… September 2006 has been a total disaster. They don’t have a lot of munitions left. So it’s cynical and hard to say, but the Army needs a certain quantity of blood in order to intervene.

But they have to. They will if they don’t have any alternative. The army is the ultimate guard of the status quo.

Only an extraordinary event could break this Bermuda Triangle :

the gvt takes everybody by surprise and announces the dissolution of the House, and calls for new elections (but there is the issue of the PPP’s dissolution. It’s not clear. All current MPs should be able to run. If because of the law they can’t, then this hypothesis would be of course a dead-end).

the King intervenes.

14 Responses to “Bermuda Triangle : Airport, parties dissolution case and King’s birthday”


  1. 1 7T 28 November 2008 at 2:11 pm

    one way the other, it must be finished by no later than 4th of December.

  2. 2 7T 28 November 2008 at 2:25 pm

    There are only two options really
    A) to disperse the govt or
    B) to dislodge the PAD

    let’s vote for this
    i prefer to disperse just one man rather than thousands of thousands of brave people.

  3. 3 Andy 28 November 2008 at 2:46 pm

    But what would happen if the PAD “win”? The longer they continue to destroy the economic basis of the country the less popular they are. So no way for them to win any normal election. So either they need to get the 75% appointed MPs, or rule by unconstitutional means – both would create a lot of dissent internationally. And already by now any election would have a similar outcome than the last, so a house dissolution would only be a temporary solution.

    To me the only solution would be a resignation of the current government and a “Government of National Unity” with Democrats and PPP (or whatever their followup may be) working together to bridge the rift between the two factions.

  4. 4 Andy 28 November 2008 at 2:50 pm

    To me the only solution would be a resignation of the current government and a “Government of National Unity” with Democrats and PPP (or whatever their followup may be) working together to bridge the rift between the two factions.

    Because – what does the PAD “win” mean? The longer they continue to destroy the economic basis of the country the less popular they are. So no way for them to win any normal election. So either they need to get the 75% appointed MPs, or rule by unconstitutional means – both would create a lot of dissent internationally. And already by now any election would have a similar outcome than the last, so a house dissolution would only be a temporary solution.

  5. 5 chinesethai 28 November 2008 at 2:50 pm

    7T:

    Even if PPP is dissolved, the problem remains – Thaksin still at large. Moreover, Puea Thai Party (PTP) has been registered with anticipation that either Retired General Chayasit Shinawatra, Thaksin’s cousin, or Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin’s sister and trained nurse, would sit as the party’s chief. Wives, children, sisters, brothers and cousins of the historic TRT and PPP members reportedly have moved in.

    The crisis will not end until the Square Face Guy is out of existence.

    ThaiCrisis, you will probably have another weird/bigotry to write about in just a couple of days ahead!!

  6. 6 Fish 28 November 2008 at 3:07 pm

    I am confused with all this Constitution Court talk ..what ever the court decides i take it on the 2nd, who does the inforcing of that decision ? i am under the impression that nobody has followed any rules or anything of the like so far, will the police suddenly leap in to action ? please forgive my ignorance in advance ..I get more confused by the second..

  7. 7 ThaiCrisis 28 November 2008 at 3:17 pm

    I am confused with all this Constitution Court talk

    Everybody is ! 😉

    We don’t even know the schedule. How long the Court will take before to give its verdict ? First we were thinking “months”… But then rumors… it could be in a snap.

  8. 8 ray 29 November 2008 at 5:21 am

    well. its not going to be over soon. mr veera and the red gang are going to hold overnight rally this sunday at 1600pm. pad talks about civil disobedience and this is what ppp,charthaii and matchima are going to do when the constitution court rues against them on 2nd dec.

    pad dont care about the economy . they big guys want to take the country back. dont forget if the red group comes out and the military uses force aginst them the pendulum will swing the other way. for the past 5 days the pad has been saying this is the last day but that hasnt come. why? because the govt will not use force but will use the red public. red or yellow they are both thai. if the poice cannot disperse the yellow people then the army cannot dispese the red group.

    if the ppp is disolved the army of red shirts will come out calling foul play. i think this thing is far from over.

  9. 9 fall 29 November 2008 at 8:20 am

    if the red group comes out and the military uses force aginst them the pendulum will swing the other way.
    And which way would that be?
    It is clear now, the PAD, the judiocracy, and the army are in league. Not counting today, the red got 2 days before the court read the verdict and 1 day before the big speech. The PAD had achieved its goal of stalling and timing is perfect.

    Even if the red manage to comes, so what? With new interim government order of martial law and army willing to enforce. How far can a bunch of protester/at most lightly armed resistance can possibly do to a tanks that would make the pendulum swing hard enough? It would be over before someone can say “foul play”.

  10. 10 ThaiCrisis 29 November 2008 at 8:26 am

    Yes timing is perfect and goal is (almost) achieved.

    But the the theory of the pendulum (I like that) is still (unfortunatly) perfectly valid.

    The nightmare is : take the current situation, and just… invert it.

    Yellow become Red, and Red become Yellow. 😉 The PPP is ousted. An “interim gvt” (military or not) comes.

    I don’t think that the people (majority) would be happy this time to be scammed… Again.

    We can assume that the Red would launch some “campaigns”, a la PAD.

  11. 11 Hoktula 29 November 2008 at 4:10 pm

    “Reds” might try to do same as PAD…

    in reality though – they stand no chance !
    because they do not have such as support of
    ALL Thai elite and rich guys, as well as Army, most of so called “academics” (stupid fallacious morons) and of course some “untouchables” (as P.).
    as long as they lack such support of “ultra-right” – they will always loose.

    interesting though that some “high-so” as Pluem Devakula (son of former Fiance minister during recent Junta’s rule), who currently runs for Bkk governor seat – he despises and hates PAD !
    perhaps he is not the only one.

  12. 12 ThaiCrisis 29 November 2008 at 4:16 pm

    Pluem Devakula is really not a good example. This guy is not thai. And he certainly doesn’t live in Thailand. I’ve got proof :
    https://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2008/05/30/joke-of-the-day-how-im-supposed-to-know-how-many-bank-accounts-i-have/
    😉

    This man stinks.

    As for the “reds”… okay they would not be “supported”… but still being the majority, they can inflict a lot of damages.

    Not necessarily with violence, but using the Gandhi’s principle…

    Old woman, men, children… singing, sitting…

    Unless Thailand becomes Burma, it would be always difficult to shoot those people. I know it happened in 1992… seems so far away… But now, I believe the situation has changed.
    Even the military have changed : look at them, they’re so afraid to stage… a coup now…

    The police is scared to death. The army is afraid, uneased… Somchai the llama lover is terrified… This is Thailand end of 2008.

    We are far away from the arrogance of all those people shown in the past…

    It’s the end of an era. The end of a reign. Always leading to troubled times.

  13. 13 Hoktula 29 November 2008 at 4:34 pm

    TC

    “Pluem Devakula is really not a good example”

    well, that might be. however in many regards he is MUCH better:
    1) he is YOUNG – unlike all the old power-hungry clique who rules now and supports lawless PADsters.
    2) he is MUCH smarter and sharp – than ANY of the PAD’s leaders. I used to listen to his TV programs previously.
    3) he is straight, not shamelessly fallacious and demagogic as PAD’s “ideologists”.

    however I am aware that he uses a lot of fallacies too.

    about “Reds can inflict a lot of damages..”

    don’t kid yourself !

    UDD/DAAD/”Reds” can NEVER enjoy such impunity and IMMUNITY as PAD ! Anupong and even police will NOT be oh so shy with anyone else than PAD ! 😉

    you wanna bet?

    as soon as UDD try ANY attempt remotely similar to PAD – they will be BRUTALLY suppressed. mark my words.

    as it has been not so long ago – in 2006/ 2007

    “Unless Thailand becomes Burma”

    well, it is not so far. if not has already happened.
    but don’t worry – as soon as Dems get power and adopt “New Politics” (=”Premocracy”, quite old term actually) and their “improved” LM cyber-law – Burma would only envy Thailand !


  1. 1 The Muslim joke, the gym sauna, and well - the airport… at The FARANG Speaks 2 Much Trackback on 29 November 2008 at 9:07 am

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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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