The PPP starts to understand the trap : call for “preemptive” dissolution

I wrote 4 days ago that the government was -from a tactical point of view- totally screwed.

Only an extraordinary event could break this Bermuda Triangle :

-the gvt takes everybody by surprise and announces the dissolution of the House, and calls for new elections.
-the King intervenes.

Some at the PPP start to understand the looming trap (with the party dissolution, then the risk of an interim authority, and then the risk of delayed elections).

Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat should step down so a new government can be formed before the People Power Party is disbanded, banned Thai Rak Thai Party executive Chaturon Chaisang advised Monday.

Action should be taken before the party is dissolved so MPs have the chance to regroup and the country’s administration is not disrupted,” he said.

Chaturon said it was a foregone conclusion that the Constitution Court would disband the PPP, though repercussions from the dissolution of this party would be worse than what happened after Thai Rak Thai was disbanded. […]

Chaturon advised Somchai and the coalition leaders to preempt the dissolution and have a new government in place before the party is dissolved, adding that several PPP MPs were receptive to this idea. (Nation)

Yes It would be a victory for the PAD. Yes it would be another retreat of a democraticaly elected government in front of a bunch of protesters. Yes it would be another set back.

But it’s only way to continue the game… It’s only way to stay into the game for the PPP.

And with snap elections the PPP could secure a victory and another shot of legitimity.

What are the alternatives ? A new crisis with the dissolution of the party… violence… And a coup ? And a new Junta or “interim authority” ? This is exactly what the PAD is waiting for.

8 Responses to “The PPP starts to understand the trap : call for “preemptive” dissolution”

  1. 1 FDL 1 December 2008 at 11:52 am

    That tag INEPT will stick to Somchai Wongsawat indefinitely:

    First, Somchai Wongsawat was recently caught on TV entering a motel with a woman who was not his wife. Sure that was a macho thing, but to get caught on TV was terribly inept.

    Second, Somchai Wongsawat was again caught unawares while abroad when the PAD blitzkrieged both Suvarnabhumi and Don Muang airports virtually crippling the whole Kingdom up to day. Since that day, ineptitude and cowardice marked Somchai’s leadership in retreat (at Chiengmai).

    Thirdly it is utmost of idiocy if Chaturon’s warning today that the Somchai Government has not considered the various implications to its political party survival about the crisis, however way it is resolved. This time it will not only be PPP party leader and PM Somchai Wongsawat who will be caught, but every party member looped with all their pants down! That would be a ridiculous spectacle of total ineptitude.

  2. 2 ray 1 December 2008 at 12:08 pm

    fdl, pls dont forget that if there is new elections ppp or their proxy will win again.the pad sells loyalty to the monarchy and the ppp sells thaksin. in morth and isan he is still very popular and he has cash….the pad will have todo alot more to destroythe man otherwise he will keep coming back again and again

  3. 3 Clem 1 December 2008 at 12:51 pm

    The plot thickens. Thanks for the blog, after Thai Visa it is a nice change to read something that actually makes sense of it all.

  4. 4 chinesethai 1 December 2008 at 1:24 pm

    It is a setback not for a democratically elected government because we have never had one. Since 1932 in which people falsely believe Thailand adopted democracy, we have had only “fraudulently elected” and authoritarian governments installed by either crooked business people-turned-politicians or military dictatorships.

  5. 5 fall 1 December 2008 at 2:59 pm

    I am against house dissolution. It might make survival-political sense, but it would also set a bad, bad standard.
    That Thailand would cave in to anyone who occupy an airport. Think in long term.

    Where would UDD or a group of disgruntle rice farmer decide to protest next year? That’s a soft core group. Now think God’s Army and Southern Insurgent…

  6. 6 local guy 1 December 2008 at 3:02 pm

    It’s not a trap sir, the govt has legal advisers like Manit (Chitchanklap), who is a former Supreme Court judge. At the rally of the red shirts at Apirak’s former office this evening (Monday) carried live by taxi radio, a speaker said the constitution court is expected to dissolve PPP and two other parties but unlike last year when Surayuth was in power, PPP still retains House majority and will just select another person as PM. These Thais are not that stupid as you think they are.

    Members of the PPP executive committee have all resigned their post except Somchai so this guy alone will be banned from politics for 5 years.

  7. 7 ThaiCrisis 1 December 2008 at 3:31 pm

    As I said before : watchout of with the “technicalities”…
    We could have some surprises.

    But the point is : I was speaking about survival here.

    Do you seriously believe that the situation can continue like this a very long time ? And that the PAD will give up ?

    I don’t. I think violence would explode, and the Army would intervene. In this case, the PPP would loose everything.

    From a “survival” point of view, I think the “preemptive” House dissolution is the only card to be played at this stage.

  8. 8 Bedwyr 1 December 2008 at 3:40 pm

    Actually I think I agree. I am not sure the trap exists. Whereas I don’t think only Somchai will fall (the disqualification will be retrospective to the time the offences were committed), I do think that dissolution of PPP will not necessarily result in the elected MP’s suddenly being unelected.

    But the shit will be in the fan bigtime. Perhaps we will see quiet until after HMK birthday and what will happen then depends on how compos mentis he seems during the inevitable speechifying. Any suggestion that HMK has been sidelined by a certain lady and her confidante P, and there will be a serious shitfight. The Thaksinistas would definitely claim to be protecting HMK from the lady, and blaming PAD for being stooges of the said lady. Which would be truly extraordinary. Dull it isn’t.

    A contact of mine reported riding in a BKK taxi at 8pm local time and the taxi driver was not troubling to be discreet about HMQ but specifically noted he did not blame HMK for the probems, which meant he did blame….

    Bedwyr believes he is wrong but then Bedwyr has read Mr Handley’s book. Nevertheless, it appears to have been an interesting conversation with the taxi driver. And I suspect he is not unique in his thinking.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.

%d bloggers like this: