PAD declares “victory” and ends protest


People’s Alliance for Democracy which seized the Government House and two Bangkok airports announced an end to its protests at all spot.

PAD’s co-leaders said the decision to terminate the protests was made because they gained victory after the Constitution Court dissolved People Power Party, Matchima Tipatayai and Chart Thai parties.

The leaders took turn to declare victories on a stage at Suvarnabhumi Airport. “All people can go home now. We are the victors now. However we will be ready to come back if the country wants us too,” they told the cheering crowds.
(Nation)

Two Prime Ministers (Samak + Somchai) in less than one year… The elected ruling party disbanded. This is the political “victory” of the PAD.

The PAD managed to drive the government totally crazy, to make them loosing time, to prevent them changing the Constitution and working properly, breaking the confidence…

From a tactical point of view, it’s undeniable : it’s a victory.

I’m convinced that the PAD was a red-herring, not a political force with a real agenda by its own.

Clausewitz said : “War is a continuation of politics by other means”.

I would say that the PAD was “a continuation of the 2006 military coup by other means”. 😉

Since the general elections, the government has been unable to work, to launch real policies, like for instance the mega-projects.

What about the price paid for such victory ? That’s a whole different story…

Now, the conflict is unlikely to be over. Let’s see what will happen when the House… will convene and elect the new Prime Minister… From the ex-PPP ranks. 😉

It seems (but surprises are always possible) that this will be the scenario (read here). PPP’s MPs will join another party. Then the House will convene, and elect… one of them.

Who could be accused… of being a nominee… of Thaksin ?

[personal note : it has been a hell of a week, like roller coaster… I think many people need some rest… I certainly do. 😉 I will go back to a “cruise pace” with one daily post… and some charts. I miss some good old charts. Tomorrow : CPI and PPI !]

24 Responses to “PAD declares “victory” and ends protest”


  1. 1 Gloomy Observer 2 December 2008 at 1:11 pm

    Sorry, but how is this victory?

    The PAD have not got new politics, or any promise of new politics. The government have not budged one inch and will now form a bigger party, PT, with Chart Thai in the fold. The PPP dissolution was always going to be the outcome. Everyone knew it, and the PAD can’t claim they put pressure on already-sympathetic judges by taking over the airports.

    In fact, I’d argue that those behind the PAD have been badly exposed by this affair and the PAD are now hated, so its threat to come back if the government tries to do something they don’t like is empty. Once, yes; twice – goodbye Thai economy – and everyone knows it! So, this may prove to be a watershed moment when we look back.

    Of course, the speech this week is a wild card, and a further Election Commission/judicial attempt to change the rules of the game is still possible – but then we get the UDD on the streets for sure – and again everyone knows it!

    Maybe I am being optimistic, but I think we get a messy compromise for a year or two…and then the next stage of the real ‘end game’ kicks in – and we will see where that leads…

  2. 2 paperback 2 December 2008 at 1:18 pm

    Mmh, this comes a bit as a surprise. Yes, Somchai lost his position but the parliament is still unchanged and already plans to elect a new government next week. So this is either just a temporary break in order not to disturb somebody’s celebration or PAD has already received information that somebody’s going to install a non-elected government.

  3. 3 ThaiCrisis 2 December 2008 at 1:19 pm

    You’re right : for any victory there is a price to be paid, or “collateral dammages”.

    But still I’m convinced that the PAD was a red-herring, absolutly not a political force with a real agenda (the famous “new politics”).

    “War is a continuation of politics by other means” Clausewitz.

    I would say that the PAD was “a continuation of the military coup of 2006 by other means”. 😉

    Since the general elections, the government has been unable to work properly, to launch real policies, like for instance the mega-projects.

    With the harassing from PAD, it was impossible to do so.

  4. 4 paperback 2 December 2008 at 1:48 pm

    Well we still need verification that the airports are actually being released. Just in one day PAD has declared that they will a) stay, b) stay but move into special “protest areas” and c) go home.

  5. 5 chinesethai 2 December 2008 at 3:22 pm

    It appears that some of our Pro-Thaksin fellows are not sober yet 🙂

    paperback, can’t you wait just 1.5-2 more years? I guarantee that you will have Thaksin back and the country probably already transformed to a republic, achieving the sort of “equality/democracy” and Thai citizens living under Pax Shinawatra as you wish. You don’t need to paranoid that Thaksin is finished. He is not. I do not believe in PAD victory theory either.

    Republic of the Philippines should be the nation Pro-Thaksin republicans can look up to as Thailand’s possible scenario. But I am not going to let my children sharing the new Thailand with you.

  6. 6 absolutelybangkok 2 December 2008 at 3:48 pm

    We’ll be at the exact same spot again and, maybe, again.

  7. 7 fall 2 December 2008 at 4:38 pm

    Paperback-
    So this is either just a temporary break in order not to disturb somebody’s celebration or PAD has already received information that somebody’s going to install a non-elected government.
    It could be both. After the celebration with everyone now able to wear yellow shirt, the PAD would probably add a “red shirt=disloyal” campaign to their list.
    Remember, PAD is not a force unto itself, just a piece in the power struggle game…

  8. 8 paperback 2 December 2008 at 5:53 pm

    @ chinesethai

    I’m not pro-Thaksin but some paranoid Thaksin-haters will never understand this. Yet unlike you I don’t expect that the mummy returns. I also do not expect (and neither hope for) a Republic but I have no reason to be afraid of it.

  9. 9 John 2 December 2008 at 11:58 pm

    The match

    Like it or not, this chess match was a clear victory for the yellows. I guess a few bottles of Mekhong whiskey have been spilt last night in the hi-so clubs of Bangkok. For the reds the match was a shame. In order to win any future match they have a lot of work to do.
    The victory for the yellow party was overwhelming. The yellow king and queen could remain untouched. Even the yellow rooks (the army) were allowed to do what they prefer to do most: nothing.
    The yellow knights (the Privy Council) could operate behind the scenes. These old musketeers didn’t have to leave their golf courses. Just a little advise now and then by mobile phone to the mob at the airfield (“you can go home now”)was enough.
    The dirty work was entirely done by the mob of yellow pawns (PAD) and the yellow bishops (the Supreme Court). It took some time though for the mob: a lot of time was lost hanging around bridges and roads in the centre of Bangkok. But finally they found their way. Let it be clear for the next match: in order to be a winner modesty is of no use! Go for the big ones (the main airports). Perfect. For the next match I would like to advise Khun Sondhi to read ”Il Principe” of Machiavelli. This book contains a host of useful tips for would be rulers.
    The performance of the yellow bishops (Supreme Court) was outstanding, my congratulations, with a 9-0 count, they gave the reds the final blow. A small advise for the judiciary: in order to avoid international blaming for being a “political court” it would be okay to have a ruling against a (minor) yellow politician.

    For the reds I have no “sweet talking”. The reds seemed without reason, the red government witless and the red organization beyond rescue.
    The red king and queen, who for obvious reasons should have been completely invisible, seemed to be in the limelight all the time. As a result they even had to divorce!
    For a party which draws on populism the masses of the poor Thais (the red pawns)should bring the difference. Hundreds of thousands of these people should have engulfed the streets of Bangkok, leaving the yellow citizens trembling in their fancy apartments and palaces.
    The red rooks (politicians in parliament and the cabinet) were in a terrible state, partly because of the unfair laws made by the previous military government.
    The red bishops (the international community) did what they could do (not much). USA: “the actions of the protesters are inappropriate”, later the European Union and Japan: “the actions of the protesters are inappropriate”.
    The knights (Thaksins business friends) did not do much. I can’t blame them.
    But alas all is not lost for the reds. Their main asset is the large rural population. Right now the rural masses are better motivated than ever. The question is: will the reds find the leadership to capitalize on their frustration for the next match to come?

  10. 10 Charles 3 December 2008 at 12:40 am

    There is an unkind postscript to all this, and that is that knowing the law, knowing the penalties, and knowing the mood and opinion of the Bangkok elite and their royal sponsors, the bloody fools in the political parties still went ahead with electoral fraud.

    How stupid was this? They really must have thought they would get away with it. How they could possibly expect to have gotten away with it? That is beyond any kind of reason.

    Charles

  11. 11 Clem 3 December 2008 at 1:20 am

    I also don’t see being anti-PAD as necessarily being pro-Taksin. Taksin I have lived under and found no hardship, the PAD agenda is an unknown as are their real backers coming clean, and their tactics & violence is repugnant. If they are the better option they are at least doing a bad job of selling that to many foreigners, being in the north I don’t get a feel for Bangkok Thai sentiment, but the locals here for the most part seem to be unimpressed.

    Saw an interview with a senior Democrat on Alquazeera, he claimed no affiliation with PAD but every comment he made was pro-PAD and defended their every action. He also boasted the outstanding job they had done in opposition. They would have been my preferred option if they could only win an election, but I found his comments inconsistent with his actions.

    No doubt the next phase of this saga is coming. Will PPP throw up a PM with less antagonistic credentials? Interesting how they put Somchai up who was almost guaranteed to give PAD their excuse to protest, are they in fact wanting the reaction?

  12. 12 chinesethai 3 December 2008 at 3:59 am

    ThaiCrisis and all:

    Could you guys verify this piece of news if it was true?

    From Arabian Business…….

    “The UK froze his reputed $4bn of assets, forcing him to sell Manchester City to Abu Dhabi’s Sheikh Mansour. To add to his troubles, his UK visa was revoked – oh, and his wife divorced him last week.”

    http://www.arabianbusiness.com/539714-catch-me-if-you-can

  13. 13 Lardprao 3 December 2008 at 4:12 am

    Just in time too the madness had ended . . . christmas/new year could be jolly after all (but not for the reds).

    But if the rumor that Chalerm Yoobamrung could be the new PM, courtesy of the disbanded TRT/PPP party, I could join in the madness. I will certainly be shouting LOUDLY as the men in yellow next to me “Chalerm oark pai!” (practice runs).

  14. 14 Kin 3 December 2008 at 4:23 am

    the whole “Republic” talk is just PAD propaganda to motivate the middle class because no one really takes corruption seriously as a reason to demonstrate (considering the middle class is just as guilty of corruption as anyone else).

    Thai Rak Thai’s near monopoly on power scared the hell out of those not in his camp. Thaksin almost managed to turn TRT into “the party” that anyone would need to be a member of in order to be promoted in any branch of the government and for any company wanting to do business with the government. motivation for those not in his camp to do anything to destroy the TRT machine, even forcing the country to its knees.

    until the Thaksin side can take control of the military or the constitution, there will be no end to the soap opera that is now Thai politics.

  15. 15 ray 3 December 2008 at 4:32 am

    i think pad wins first quarter. but its far from over. the ppp proxy still control the parliament and will elect the pm. lets imagine it is not mingkhawn or chalerm. its someone low-key. and then if the ppp comes out i dont think there will be half the support for pad this time. and since the 3 parties are dissolved there is no need to amend the constitution. now its the time to pass the budget for the mega-projects and make money.and then use it to win further elections.
    the pad had to claim “victory” because of the huge egos and they claim this is victory for status quo. if the airport remains closed the support for pad start to wane. “its the economy stupid”. everything is fine and dandy but as soon as people start making less or no money they get angry and withdraw support.
    regarding the speech tomorrow, if hmk comes for national unity then pad loses all credibility to rally again. udd doesnt come out.ppp or proxy still hangs on to power for 3 years. doesnt look like much of the victory for me. looks like the pad won the battle but could lose the war.

  16. 16 Wrongfred 3 December 2008 at 6:19 am

    Yes, Thaksin is far from finished. And I agree that the danger of a coming republic is always looming. However then I think Thailand will not be the land of smile anymore but the “Land of Greed”

  17. 17 Charles 3 December 2008 at 6:56 am

    Pictures in Nation today of the protesters packing up.

    WTF?

    No charges? No investigation? No fucking law and order?

    WTF?

    Charles

  18. 18 chinesethai 3 December 2008 at 7:41 am

    Charles,

    If you are so concerned about the law enforcement, you’d better urge the police to investigate the carnage in Chiangmai, in which a 60-yr old radio host was pulled off his car and shot dead in front of Chiangmai Police Officers and passers by.

  19. 19 chinesethai 3 December 2008 at 7:50 am

    Kin,

    the whole “Republic” talk is just PAD propaganda to motivate the middle class because no one really takes corruption seriously as a reason to demonstrate (considering the middle class is just as guilty of corruption as anyone else).

    Check out the people who are so frustrated about the Monarchy.
    http://www.prachatai.com
    http://www.sameskybook.org
    http://www.asiasentinel.com (Giles Ungpakorn)

  20. 20 Wrongfred 3 December 2008 at 10:05 am

    Chinesethai! I wonder why so many farang expats are pro Thaksin.

  21. 21 Kin 3 December 2008 at 10:07 am

    chinesethai,

    “The 2006 Coup was not a Royalist coup against a republican Thaksin, it was a conflict between two sections of the Thai ruling class, both of whom wish to use the Monarchy as an instrument of class rule.”

    -Giles Ji Ungpakorn
    “How much power does the Thai King really have?” @ asiasentinel.com

  22. 22 chinesethai 3 December 2008 at 10:17 am

    Wrongfred,

    Some of them that we encounter online might be just ‘black-haired’ farangs. 😀

  23. 23 Charles 3 December 2008 at 10:58 am

    Chinesethai,

    Actions against the law should be punished and I have not said otherwise. This guy that was shot in front of the Chiang Mai police… what did the police do? When Thaksin ordered the police to kill and maim, what did anyone do? What did the Palace do?

    What did you do?

    Charles

  24. 24 chinesethai 3 December 2008 at 1:49 pm

    Charles,

    The police stood by right there watching the carnage, so were fearful passers by.

    Interested in watching the clip?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfPZGdlWN9E

    Let me know if you also want to see still pics.


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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