Frankenstein Coalition : from the Blitzkrieg to… the war of Attrition

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Stuck in the mud ? The “bozo coup” that was announced saturday (the military pushing for a “Frankenstein Coalition” between Democrat Party and defectors from the current majority) was based on something important : surprise effect.

Like Shock and Awe, or the Blitzkrieg.

This is why the Democrat Party announced sunday a motion for monday in order to reconvene the Parliament and to proceed quickly to the election of the new Prime Minister. Very quickly.

But unfortunatly, the operation seems to loose momentum. Apparently, Parliament will take time to check the motion…then the motion will be sent for royal approval… That would lead us to the next week.

The Democrat motion to convene a special House session has been submitted. The Pheu Thai Party is also planning to submit a similar motion of its own. House Speaker Chai said it would take about three days to check the signatures before the Democrat motion can be presented to HM the King.

As of now, the House session may take place as late as next week. It promises to be a very long, anxious wait for Abhisit. Our latest information has it that only 21 Newin faction MPs remain committed to the Democrat alliance. (Nation)

The more they wait, the more the “bozo coup” weakens. The more there is a risk for the defectors… to defect again ! The higher is the risk for the medias and the people to start to think a little bit about this montruous mating, its causes and its consequences…

And we all know that thinking… is bad, isn’t it ? 😉

[personal note. I think my opinion is obvious : this ridiculous political trick (to force a fundamental change of coalition by using a few… defectors) is scandalous and is an insult to all voters (from both side). With such trick, the thai democracy is nothing but a political whore.

If Abhisit wanted to keep an ounce of legitimacy and credibility, he should refuse such horrible kitchen trick. The bottom line is : even if the plan succeeds, it’s unlikely that such “Frankenstein Coalition” could work successfully on the long term… So what’s the point ? So it’s not even a coup, a serious one, I think the expression I’ve forged is really accurate : bozo coup, a coup by the clowns for the clowns. Wake up Thailand ! End of rant.]

17 Responses to “Frankenstein Coalition : from the Blitzkrieg to… the war of Attrition”


  1. 1 Insanity 8 December 2008 at 4:20 pm

    “Power is not a means, it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power.”

    George Orwell, Nineteen Eighty-Four

  2. 2 ThaiCrisis 8 December 2008 at 4:31 pm

    Alas… Orwell was right.

    Speaking about 1984, you remember the Minister of Truth (or Minitrue) ?
    Fasten your seatbelt, the french president decided last week to name a “Minister of the Economic Rebound” !
    I’m not joking. This guy (a lawyer !) will “supervise” the spendings of the “stimulus plan”…Because of course, France has its own. As you see, lunacy is a perfectly well shared commodity… worldwide. 😉 End of the digression.

  3. 3 Insanity 8 December 2008 at 6:05 pm

    Political Careers or Career Politicians?

    “Politics, just as economic pursuits, may be a man’s avocation or his vocation. […] There are two ways of making politics one’s vocation: Either one lives ‘for’ politics or one lives ‘off’ politics. […] He who lives ‘for’ politics makes politics his life […] He who strives to make politics a permanent source of income lives ‘off’ politics as a vocation.” [from Gerth and Mills (1946; pp. 83-84)]

    The view expressed by Weber highlights the importance of analyzing the motivations of politicians in the context of their career decisions over the life-cycle.

    Thai politicians only appear to live ‘off’ politics. Reversals of fortune and a revolving-door succession of Prime Ministers and newly formed parties with the same corrupt bozos continue to characterize national politics. This plethora of political parties coalition governments shifting party loyalties and motions of no confidence in the leadership will continue to lend an air of instability to political proceedings as long as it allowed to flourish.

  4. 4 Bedwyr 8 December 2008 at 11:11 pm

    I cannot see how Frankenstein can survive in anything but the short term. The problem with strange bedfellows in politics is that they generally fall out.

    I see that my own (unqualified since I am just an amateur nonsense-spotter) speculation about a take-over was supported in one of the editorials recently. Perhaps the PPP (and its antecedents) have just decided that to combat the Royally-backed and immune PAD does not make sense, so they will do so from under the safer umbrella of the Democrats. I can’t see that working for very long either. Regrouping time perhaps at best.

    I really don’t see any way of avoiding a civil war in Thailand in the longer term, and I was among the first if not the first to say so here. Some foreign newspaper comments have since said the same thing. The Palace will not give up and the rural poor will not give up.

    Whilst I do believe the rural poor had a very poor instrument (the thief Thaksin), I doubt that any other politician would have succeeded, because Thaksin’s aspirations to the first presidency of Thailand through the rural vote (same strategy, in effect, as Marcos) was so much more outrageous than any of the other Thai pollies, most of whom are perennially satisfied with a bit of nest-feathering policy corruption and backsheesh (vide Barharn as the supreme but not unique example of this).

    In this sense, Thaksin differed from the Thai model because far too many of them are just thugs and criminals looking for power and money to satisfy their own egos. Thaksin was different. Thaksin is a thug and a criminal looking for Head of State status as well. IMHO.

    Bedwyr

  5. 5 Bedwyr 8 December 2008 at 11:22 pm

    @ Insanity:

    I agree in part with what Weber said but it is not complete. Many politicians in general but it seems to me most politicians in Thailand, are looking for power and wealth, not only as a means of financial sustenance, but also to satisfy the needs of their egos.

    In Thailand, politics is rightly seen as a natural way to extend business corruption. I very much doubt that politicians such as Thaksin, Barnhan, Chalerm, Chidchob etc give a rats ass about improving the lot of the Thai rural poor; they are just a vehicle for self-aggrandisement.

    These people are truly disgusting.

    I also believe, that Rex, could easily have cleaned out the corruption in Thailand but chose not to in favour of continuing the accumulation of power and wealth, and for fear of incurring the wrath of the Bangkok elite. So much for Dhammaraja.

    Bedwyr

  6. 6 chinesethai 9 December 2008 at 1:37 am

    Both the Dems and the so-called caretaker PM Chavarat Charnveerakul will be embarrassed because those ex-PPP, ex-Chart Thai members may have lost their MP status.

    The only way out is a royally appointed administration.

  7. 7 Dude 9 December 2008 at 5:17 am

    Did you see this..

    http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/topstories.php?id=135247

    “Surapong Towijakchaikul, a Puea Thai MP for Chiang Mai, said the meeting also mentioned the figure of two billion baht money to be spent convincing the defectors to return and support the party in forming a government.”

    How can they be so darn open about it. If you do the maths its about 57 million each. Expect to see more of this in coming months.

  8. 8 Bedwyr 9 December 2008 at 5:38 am

    The only way out is a royally appointed administration.

    Yes. But the only democratic way out is to hold elections and somehow try to persuade the inherently corrupt and dishonest politicians to resist the temptation to reach for their wallets while campaigning. They would win anyway.

    Bedwyr

  9. 9 ThaiCrisis 9 December 2008 at 5:39 am

    That wouldn’t be surprising. That’s the fundamental point of defectors : they can always defect. Again. They just need proper stimulus.
    😉
    The Democrat put a price (their denegations are so pathetic… have you seen the last gossip, they would agree to give the Transport Ministry… to Newin !! Big reward…)… it’s normal that the ex-PPP is trying to catch up with the bargain.

    At that little game, the Democrat have a lot to loose. On the other side, Thaksin has nothing to loose.

  10. 10 chinesethai 9 December 2008 at 6:06 am

    “Yes. But the only democratic way out is to hold elections and somehow try to persuade the inherently corrupt and dishonest politicians to resist the temptation to reach for their wallets while campaigning. They would win anyway.”

    Then you’ll have a deadlock. Who has the right to call an election now? Puea Thai Party is completely ineligible. The Dems have resorted to form its own cabinet and promised ministerial posts to ex-PPP, ex-Chart Thai defectors, whose status are still in question. Nobody knows if Chai Chidchob is still a legal House Speaker.

  11. 11 ray 9 December 2008 at 7:13 am

    i agree to some extent with ct.. if the democrats fail to form the govt there will be a royally appointed pm. that is plan b. but a thaksin proxy govt will not happen under the current circumstances. if abhisit is pm and red group come out he will stay put. but if it drags on and start getting violence then the royally appoointed govt will take shape. it is very close to check -mate .

  12. 12 Bedwyr 9 December 2008 at 8:33 am

    I still believe the succession will become an issue before a royally appointed government does. And even if I am wrong, hands up anyone who thinks Thaksin is out of the picture?

    Bedwyr

  13. 13 chinesethai 9 December 2008 at 10:52 am

    Even if there were no Thaksin, Thailand without someone charismatic to hold it together is worrisome enough.

    :::::::BREAKING NEWS:::::::
    Fugitive Thaksin’s daughter buys luxurious house in HK : SCMP
    http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/09/headlines/headlines_30090574.php

    The HK Authority is facing tough choices – whether to let its territory become a money-laundering haven.

  14. 14 ThaiCrisis 9 December 2008 at 11:06 am

    I think Hong Kong didn’t wait miss Shinawatra to be a “money laundering haven”…

  15. 15 chinesethai 9 December 2008 at 11:48 am

    But on the other hand, it reinforces the validity of a report a week ago that Britain might have frozen Thaksin’s hundreds of billions baht of assets there, waiting for him and his family to prove how he has acquired them.
    http://www.arabianbusiness.com/539714-catch-me-if-you-can

    Also, Hong Kong usually gets high mark on Transparency Intl’s CPI index.

  16. 16 ray 9 December 2008 at 12:49 pm

    thaksin is down but not out. mr nevin supproting hte democrats is a very big blow to thaksin, bevause newin controls a large number of mps and mobs. dont forget his famiy members ( somchai ) is out of politics. right now anyone whos last name is shinawatra is
    a marked man. i dont see how thaksin can recover from this, if democrats form the govt… the only way is see is the red mob coming out and do what the pad did… i dont think that will happen.

    i believe they will come out and it will be violent but they will not get the sympathy from the thai pubic. would like ot know what do u guys think. () the judicia coup was a master stroke)

  17. 17 fall 9 December 2008 at 1:03 pm

    Bedwyr-
    …hands up anyone who thinks Thaksin is out of the picture?
    I thought earlier Mrs. P mentioned someting about divorcing him if he gonna go back to politic?

    Ray-
    … if abhisit is pm and red group come out he will stay put. but if it drags on and start getting violence then the royally appoointed govt will take shape.
    Of course, the reds are gonna come out, but if things turn ugly. What make you think it would drags on(meaning the military wont disperse the protester)? The reason things had been dragged on for the PAD was because the military have a “invisible” coup since Samak’s term.

    Samak (and Somchai) as PM declared State of Emergency, which effectly make him a C-in-C. Now, what do you call when the military refuse to carry out order from the C-in-C?


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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