Chart, credit : strong growth… but not for everybody

The financial crisis is unraveling worldwide… But for the moment, there is no (apparent) crisis on the credit front in Thailand. Let’s have a look with the latest figures (october) for credits provided by Commercial banks (only).

(Source Bank Of Thailand, table FI_CB_015_S3)

credoct3

We see that the total outstanding credit in october went up strongly by 178 billions THB (5 billions USD), to reach a total of 7 340 billions THB. That’s a growth of almost 20 % compared to october 2007.

Nice. But credit to who ? Let’s have a look per type of debtors.

credoct1

In october, compared to the previous month, were are almost flat for businesses and individuals (+0,4 and +0,5 %).

To give you an idea, for businesses between september and october, the oustanding amount went up by 13 billions THB only. This is the slowest monthly growth since january 2008.

Here is the view with the % of growth year-on-year.

credoct21

Businesses are up 14 % and individuals by 11 %.

We can see clearly the hike for “total”. So who gets the money ? The answer is : “Domestic Banks and Financial Institutions” (AKA commercial banks who give credit to other commercial banks and “financial institutions”).

On the 178 billions THB in october, 149 billions went to this group… A whooping +20 % compared to previous month. And if we look at the details, actually the outstanding balance to “commercial banks” went down by 8 billions THB.

So the only responsible for the hike is the sub-group “Specialized Financial Institutions”. Unfortunatly I don’t know what the BOT puts in this group.

So what to think about it ? What we could call the usefull credit (to businesses and individuals) is increasing continuously but slowly (or slower during the last months). And meanwhile, we have some strong movements among (unkown) “Specialized Financial Institutions”.

This strange pattern actually started in february.

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