It was the “missing sign” we were waiting for…
China’s exports fell for the first time in seven years as a world recession slashed demand, adding pressure for more measures to sustain growth in the world’s fourth-biggest economy.
Exports declined 2.2 percent in November from a year earlier after gaining 19.2 percent in October, the customs bureau said in a statement on its Web site today. (Bloomberg)
After Japan, and many other countries (read here)… It’s game over. There is no way thailand’s exports can continue to grow, on a year on year basis with such a string of bad news on the worldwide trade front.
The “peak exports” was indeed reached last july. And we won’t see it again before a long time…
And I remind you that it was the only remaining growth engine for the country (even though it stalled already during Q3, read my special report on GDP…).
So the forecast is easy : the contribution of exports for GDP growth on Q3 was ZERO… we have to brace ourselves for a NEGATIVE contribution on the coming quarters. Therefore, what could save the growth ? Government spendings ? Inventories (like they did on Q3) ?
Anyway, the first figures for exports in november will be released around december 20-22.
But there is no escape : the game is over.
Abhisit and his “Frankenstein Coalition” are going to (try) to rule the country at the precise moment when Thailand is entering in a… recession (or zero growth at the best).
Thaksin can smile like the Cheshire Cat, behind, even though he lost a battle : the Democrats are going to ridicule themselves on the economic front.
The timing couldn’t have been worse for their little political heist.
China is urging its troubled state-owned airlines to cancel or defer new aircraft purchases amid the global economic turmoil — a move that could hurt American and European aircraft makers.
Airlines are also being urged not to renew leases for aircraft rented from foreign firms and to ground or sell some planes, according to an announcement seen Wednesday on the Web site of industry regulator the Civil Aviation Administration of China.
Chinese carriers have been squeezed by high oil prices and falling passenger and cargo revenues. State-owned airlines had total losses of about 4.2 billion yuan ($615 million) in the first 10 months of this year, according to the government. (AP)
Cause and effect… Western companies suffer… Therefore China suffers (less exports)… Therefore other western companies suffer (China reduces its imports)… No escape. A country can not pretend to be “insulated” from the crisis. Thailand tried (among others). They are proved wrong.