Days pass… and the situation is worsening in Asia. The fantasy of “decoupling” seems long gone.
The Telegraph publishes a good article, from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.
A few quotes.
Flemming Nielsen, from Danske Bank, said exports from Korea and Taiwan both shrank by over 20pc last month. “The numbers are terrible. Intra-Asian trade is in free-fall. Taiwan’s exports to mainland China in November were down a whopping 42pc.”
Fan Gang, a top adviser in Beijing, said China’s exports would also show a decline when data is released this week. “Things are not good: industrial growth will be around 5pc and export growth will be negative,” he said. Economic expansion of 5pc would be a major shock and entail recession in the Chinese context.
Japan’s economy shrank 0.5pc in the third quarter and risks sliding back into deflation and perma-slump. Exports fell 7.7pc in October on crumbling demand for cars and machinery.
Earlier rescue plans have already pushed Japan’s national debt to 170pc of GDP, the world’s highest. Private savings have collapsed from 14pc of GDP in the early 1990s to 2pc today. Japan goes into this downturn without a cushion.
A contraction… of GDP can’t be discarded anymore…
“It is likely that the economy will mark negative growth this quarter compared with the previous one, due to a host of negative factors”. Bangkok Bank executive chairman Kosit Panpiemras. (Nation)