Best wishes for Abhisit… until next week

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Voila. Here is my wish after the election of the new Prime Minister, the leader of Democrat Party, thanks to a “Frankenstein Coalition” : I hope that Abhisit (right) will not become the penultimate thai Benny Hill (left).

Like X Files, I want to believe… But it’s difficult.

I can feel that the bloggers community and the press won’t pardon easily his mistakes or “faux pas”.

First real rendez-vous : the government nomination.

The list of the ministers should be completed next monday. That will be the first “acid test” for Abhisit…

Until then, I promise to stop criticizing him. 😉

13 Responses to “Best wishes for Abhisit… until next week”


  1. 1 thaichris 15 December 2008 at 5:28 pm

    @TC

    Looks like you are not vry happy with the choice of the Thai parliament.

    From your perspective – who would be the best person to become PM for Thailand (and don’t forget, it must be a Thai national).

  2. 2 ThaiCrisis 15 December 2008 at 5:38 pm

    TC… watch out with the words… it’s not really a “choice”… when obviously a bunch of MPs were “convinced” (how we don’t know) to change allegiance.

    It’s a stolen election, it’s a dirty trick. Absolutly not a normal process.

    Like Giles wrote : “Over the last 30 years, the Democrat party has never won an overall majority in parliament.
    http://rspas.anu.edu.au/rmap/newmandala/2008/12/15/ji-ungpakorn-on-thailands-second-coup/

    So yes indeed, it’s rather a bad beginning as far as democracy is concerned… 😉

    Furthermore, this “treason” will have a price, a costly price for Abhisit : AKA taking care of the coalition members… By giving them positions.

    This is what I’ve called the “Frankenstein Coalition”.

    I don’t understand how people can be happy ! You want a guy close to Newin to become Transport Minister for instance ? !

    I’m angry because like the chinese proverb, everybody is looking at the nice face of Abhisit but can’t see behind the ugly faces of the “old bosses”, the regular mafia politicians who haunt the political life of Thailand since… forever.

    As for the question : who else ?

    I don’t know. I would say Abhisit (because we have to try “something” new, I fully agree)… but a totally free Abhisit, with his own majority.

    But that won’t happen, because obviously those guys are unable to win any election. 😉

    Anyway, I shall stick to my promise : no more critics. Until next week.

  3. 3 chinesethai 16 December 2008 at 1:59 am

    TC,

    You have to realize that Giles Ungpakorn purposely ignores the fact that victory in Thai election depends more on who has more money, connection, and power than who are more capable. Like some foreigners, he always rants about PAD protests but always chooses to ignore all the carnage (bombs, murders) that have apparently and continuously been instigated by the Pro-Thaksin Red Shirts. Why does he purposely ignore those facts? He shares republican agenda with Thaksin. So how could we rely on him for the truth?

    New Mandala, Asia Sentinel, The Economist and ‘some’ Pundits (excuse me for naming these people) are a bunch of foreign blogs that are always completely out of touch with Asia but they like to pretend that they are experts about the region. Many developments that played out so far, not just in Thailand but also in other Asian countries, have proven that they do not!

    P.S. Haven’t gargantuan-scale frauds that surfaced in the U.S.(Mr. Mad Off) and France(SocGen) proven to us how the illusive “west-believe-west” and “west-knows-best” attitudes is poisonous?

  4. 4 ray 16 December 2008 at 3:38 am

    hello thaicrisis

    when u say win election , i think u mean buy the election! most thai people are happy. why? because things are so screwed up at the moment, we need people who have the knowledge to work. as for ugly faces behind abisit u are correct. but this is politics thus underhanded tactics are a given. this was not thaksin versus abisit. this was suthep vs sanoh. newin,suthep,sanoh,sanan. these are king makers ( prime minister) in thai politics. they never become pm. the only kingmaker to becoem pm was banharn silpacha.

    even thaksin had to depend on sanoh to become pm. and when sanoh backed out things turned for worst.

    most private sectors are cautiously optimistic. cautiously is the key word.will it be easy for abisit? absolutely not. is there a better alternative? my personal choice would be chuan leekpai. he has more baramee.( charisma/respect). new elections then we will be right back where we started.
    the red gang has already stated they will prevent they govt. to announce its policies in the parliament.

    the army chief has already stated that they will foow orders of the new govt unconditionally.

    please dont forget the ppp has 2 chances to govern the country and messed it up. thier only agenda was to amend the constitution to favour thaksin . if they did not bring that issue up i think samak woud still be the pm.

  5. 5 Mr. Wrigley 16 December 2008 at 3:42 am

    Any forecast on how long this artificial political arrangement is going to last? After they voted–was there a formal signing ceremony with an endorsement and handing out of medals by Sondhi? I posted some new rantings in my blog on why Thailand will end up right back where it started again—just a matter of time. Calm before the next storm I call it. Maybe everyone knows already? Sorry to be cynical now but I have to release on this one. How long before the corruption sets in and brings down the coalition, but UH!, where can coalition partners defect to? the opposition Puea Thai(PT)can’t replace the Dem’s because it will only reawake the PAD. So is it now a tyranny of the Democrat party? While Puean Pandin, Ruam Jai CP, Chart Thai Pattana, Matchima, and Friends of Newin are now members of the “coalition” (if that is what you want to call it–you know they are looking at this thing as a short term marriage, with various political opportunists now thinking of ways to destroy the arrangement and make themselves and their leader the next PM (cough! NEWIN~ Can he ride it out until his political suspension is finished ~ when is that 2011? when the Democrats will be forced to call an election..is the timing going to be right..hmmm?“Big Question“ If the PAD allows this new arrangement, will they, in the future, allow the coalition partners to defect and form a new government led by a different party if it doesn’t include PT..What it would call itself or be comprised of I don’t know, but it begs the question and highlights that all future political calculations are restricted by the threat/existence of the non-elected PAD juggernaut.~~~~All politicians in PT now must know that PT is a dead end …I guess it will break up into different parties and factions in the future~~I foresee PT morphing into other things and then in a few years“the Newin Clan~RJTCP, CTP, Machima, etc join forces again to form a government..would Sondhi T approve of this arrangement…now we always have ask ourselves..will Sondhi approve? it is so annoying ..How can one unelected individual have so much power over the country.

  6. 6 chinesethai 16 December 2008 at 6:00 am

    This government will not last long. With huge financial resources overseas, Thaksin can still “influence” the 50 defectors to vote against any law proposed by the government, forcing Abhisit to dissolve the parliament. It is not totally unpredictable but it is up to who choose to talk about the other dark side of Thai elections – the elections that are always fraught with lawful vote buying (lavishing public coffers to buy votes but create no productivity in the name of populism), frauds and murders. Thailand cannot carry on with this kind of fake democracy.

    It is funny to believe that one old fat Chinese man like Sondhi can wield “invisible” power over the Dems. Facts are they share one enemy, Thaksin, but they only loosely united against him. And 3 of PAD leaders and Anti-Thaksin Senators, Ms Rosana, are Anti-Royalists. But they think removing Thaksin is priority. That’s it.

    :::::YESTERDAY’S BIGOTRY:::::
    A couple of Pro-Thaksin Red Shirts were injured when they tried to attack a caravan of defected MPs leaving the Parliament Bldg with stones, mortars, bricks, and …acid. But the acid missed the target big time and instead went towards their Red Shirt peers. Serve them right! 😀

  7. 7 Rich 16 December 2008 at 9:47 am

    Must disagree with Ray that most Thai people are happy with the outcome.
    Most of the Thai people I know are rolling around laughing at the sad fact that this was the only way Abhisit was ever going to get into this position, he COULDN’T win an election.

    And he is in a pretty ugly position given the current co-alition, he si not going to get a free ride here, in fact, he may find himself leading the new TRT/Mafia.

    Nothing is free, especially in Thailand, at some point he will have to pay the piper, and that may prove very expensive.

  8. 8 fall 16 December 2008 at 12:07 pm

    The list of the ministers should be completed next monday.
    Am still rooting for Somsak as Interior Minister.

  9. 9 Rich 16 December 2008 at 1:14 pm

    I honestly think that Abhisit has bought himself a hornets nest, and frankly, is too stupid to realise it.
    Thaksin must be wetting himself laughing!

  10. 10 Rich 16 December 2008 at 2:48 pm

    What does it matter anymore? The clans are back in control of the politics, the royalty are back in control of everything else..stalemate again!
    The little people have been shat on from a great height! da da da da da

  11. 11 thaichris 17 December 2008 at 1:47 am

    @CT

    I’m not too sure about Thaksin’s financial power. Let’s look at the facts:

    – Ledt’s assume he had usable assets (cash and assets easily be converted into cash (stocks, bonds, etc.) of 5 billion US$ at the beginning of 2006 after the deal with TEMASEK.

    – He didn’t have any ‘income’ from tea money over the last 3 years as he was busy saving his head and even when his team was in charge (Samak, Somchai) they didn’t manage to get any ‘big deals’ running to make some cash. => 0 income

    – 2 billion US$ have been blocked by the Thai authorities => – 2 billion

    – Cash and assets had to be parked outside Thailand (remaining 3 billion). As the stock market went dramatically down and banks don’t pay interest I suppose his fortune shrinked. => -10% = – 300 million

    – He had to finance two election campaings:
    * 450 MP – 2 campaigns – 1 million each = – 900 million
    * vote buing 50% of TRT/PPP votes (5 mio) – 2 campaigns – 20 each = – 200 million
    TOTAL => – 1.1 billion

    – “buy” back some key players
    * Samak 20 mio
    * Banharn 20 mio
    * Sanoh 10 mio
    * various 50 mio
    TOTAL => 100 million

    – Various activities to keep the “movement” alive (UDD, DADD, TRT, PPP, Truth Today, etc) => – 200 million

    – Get the above amount of money back into Thailand (“money laudering” service is charged at 10%) => – 170 million

    – Cost of living (own, wife, kids – 10 mio each per year) over 3 years = – 150 million

    This gives a TOTAL left of 880 million and the money is abroad. Currently various agencys are looking into the cash flow of Thaksin regarding money laudering and cossuption which makes it more and more difficult for Thaksin to shift money around.

    Bottom line: I think, he just has enough to finance one more campaing and it would be a “do or die” game with a 50-50 fifty-fifty chance. I’m not to sure if he is the man to take this risk. He was never a gambler. All his deals have been secured in advance by paying the right peoples which guarantied the success. We will know it soon. If he is able to build up a movement similar to PAD and keep it alive over 3 month, he might still hve enough assets. If not, it will be an uphill battle to come back.

  12. 12 Bedwyr 17 December 2008 at 2:03 am

    Rich:

    Fully agree with all of your comments.

    This is the most poisoned of poisoned chalices. Abhisit couldn’t even win an election after a coup for goodness’ sake!

    Don’t like to say I told you so but did I not say that Newin would hold the key and to watch what he did? 2 months ago or so.

    Who’s yore Daddy?

    Bedwyr

  13. 13 chinesethai 17 December 2008 at 9:59 am

    Thaichris:

    Despite your careful calculation of Thaksin financial clout, I’d rather remain cautious. It is yet to be confirmed if his UK assets worth some 100-billion baht have reportedly been frozen. Also, the value of assets he has parked in various places he often traveled to in the past such as BVI, China, Singapore, New Zealand are still unknown.

    But by saying “All his deals have been secured in advance by paying the right peoples which guarantied the success.”, you are right about his philosophy – never take risk if absolute winning is not guaranteed. He is not a self-made tycoon as conveniently dubbed by most western media because all of his multi-billion dollar businesses were monopoly (e.g. satellite, phonebook). Whenever the industry got competitive, he would immediately seek ways to gain the upperhand over his rivals (e.g. Itv, cellphone, real estate) or seek exit (e.g. IBC).


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Thailand Crisis

Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South... The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.

But this time, it's different.

The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable... succession of King Bhumibol.


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